US embassy cable - 02COLOMBO1778

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001778 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS; NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
NEW DELHI PLS PASS TO AMBASSADOR WILLS 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  09-24-12 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, PINS, PINR, CE, LTTE - Peace Process 
SUBJECT:  Reviewing recent talks, Muslim leader says he is 
"cautiously optimistic" about state of peace process 
 
Refs:  (A) Bangkok 6663, and previous 
 
-      (B) Colombo 1751, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by W. Lewis Amselem, Charge d'Affaires. 
Reasons 1.5 (b, d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Charge met September 24 with Rauf Hakeem, 
the Muslim leader who was a member of the GSL's team at the 
recent talks with the Tamil Tigers.  Hakeem remarked on the 
positive atmospherics of the talks, noting that he was now 
"cautiously optimistic" about the peace process.  Mulling 
over possible long-term power-sharing modalities, he 
planned to meet soon with Tiger leader Prabhakaran in order 
to press for "guarantees" for Muslims.  Hakeem seems 
comfortable with the current situation, which indicates 
that the volatile Muslim angle is being managed well by the 
GSL and Tigers, so far.  End Summary. 
 
========================================= 
Muslim Leader Positive about recent Talks 
========================================= 
 
2.  (C) Charge met Rauf Hakeem, the leader of the Sri Lanka 
Muslim Congress (SLMC), and GSL Minister for Ports and 
Shipping, on September 24.  Hakeem, who was a member of the 
GSL's delegation at the recent talks with the Liberation 
Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), remarked on the positive 
atmospherics of the talks (see Reftels).  There were 
productive discussions on many issues, he noted, with the 
LTTE side focused on issues related to assistance to the 
north and east.  Hakeem said he found chief LTTE negotiator 
Anton Balasingham "quite impressive."  Balasingham's 
health, however, did not seem particularly good, and he 
could not sit down and negotiate for long stretches at a 
time. (Note:  Balasingham has a serious kidney condition.) 
V. Rudrakumar, another member of the LTTE team, was also 
active during the talks, especially on legal and 
constitutional issues. 
 
3.  (C) Queried about the closing press conference, Hakeem 
replied that Balasingham's remarks edging away from 
separatism were positive, as were his comments about 
Muslims, in general.  That said, the LTTE had to do more 
than say nice words that could have "shifting meanings." 
It was imperative that the group take "concrete steps to 
protect Muslims."  Overall, Hakeem allowed that he was now 
"cautiously optimistic" about the state of the peace 
process after the talks, but underscored that more progress 
needed to be made. 
 
=============================== 
Next Step:  Meeting Prabhakaran 
=============================== 
 
4.  (C) Hakeem's next step was his upcoming meeting with 
LTTE leader V. Prabhakaran in the LTTE-controlled Wanni 
region in northern Sri Lanka.  This meeting was crucial, he 
averred.  It was fine to meet with Balasingham and other 
LTTE representatives, but Prabhakaran was the key figure in 
the organization and known to be "in total control." 
Hakeem said he would use this meeting to press Prabhakaran 
to lend substance to the LTTE's public commitment to 
protect the rights of Muslims in the north and east.  In 
doing this, the discussions would delve into the details of 
a possible final settlement (see more below).  It was 
important that progress be made in this meeting, Hakeem 
noted, so that he had something to take back to the Muslim 
community, especially those in the ethnically mixed and 
volatile east.  (Note:  The slated meeting with Prabhakaran 
would be Hakeem's second this year.  He met Prabhakaran in 
April, and the two announced several "understandings" re 
Muslim rights in the north and east.  Muslims as a rule 
feel the LTTE did not live up to these understandings.) 
 
========================== 
Mulling over the Long-term 
========================== 
5.  (C) When asked, Hakeem mulled over possible long-term 
power-sharing arrangements for the north and east.  He 
noted that his thinking on this issue was in the formative 
stages and he still sought "imaginative" ideas on ways to 
handle the Muslim situation.  At this point, however, he 
was leaning toward the idea that Muslim representatives 
would serve with Tamils in a provincial council for the 
north and east based in Trincomalee.      The chief 
minister of the north and east would probably be a Tamil 
and the deputy a Muslim.  Because Tamils (i.e., the LTTE) 
were bound to dominate such a structure, however, it was 
important that Muslims receive "additional guarantees." 
While Muslims would not demand their own province, it was 
important that power in the north and east devolve to the 
local level to a large extent.  This would allow Muslim 
communities interspersed throughout the region the ability 
to govern their own affairs to a large extent.  Finally, 
the LTTE had to formally accept that there could be no re- 
distribution of populations.  (Note:  Some in LTTE and 
Tamil ranks see re-distribution as a good way to diminish 
Muslim influence in the north and east.) 
 
6.  (C) In drawing this tentative description of a possible 
settlement, Hakeem underscored that he rejected the notion 
that there would be an "interim" followed by a "final" 
settlement.  He claimed that the idea of such a staggered 
accord was pushed most often by the LTTE as a way to cloak 
its desire for an eventual separate status for Tamils. 
Coming back to a thread he had mentioned earlier, Hakeem 
again underlined that it was important that GSL negotiators 
continue to press the LTTE to clearly define its terms. 
The group always carefully chose its words, but these words 
upon subsequent review often did not mean what they 
initially seemed. 
 
======= 
Comment 
======= 
 
7.  (C) Hakeem seems relatively comfortable with the 
current situation.  This is in marked contrast to his 
agitated state during the summer months, when Tamils and 
Muslims in the east were at each other's throats.  The fact 
that Hakeem seems somewhat confident indicates that the 
complex Muslim angle is being managed well by the GSL and 
Tigers, so far.  Clearly, the fact that the GSL has let 
Hakeem join its team for the talks has been a source of 
encouragement for Muslims.  In addition, Hakeem seems to be 
hearing the right sounds from the LTTE at this point re the 
group's commitment to Muslim rights in the east.  For 
progress to continue, it is important that Prabhakaran work 
hard during the upcoming meeting in the Wanni to give 
Hakeem the ironclad guarantees he needs to take back to the 
Muslim community.  Hakeem still is not sure that the LTTE 
is there yet.  End Comment. 
 
8.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
AMSELEM