US embassy cable - 05MANILA3593

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 003593 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/PMBS, INR/EAP, INR/B 
NSC FOR GREEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PREL, KCOR, RP 
SUBJECT: HOUSE SETS RULES FOR IMPEACHMENT COMPLAINT 
 
REF: A. MANILA 3458 
 
     B. MANILA 3391 
     C. MANILA 3367 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Timothy Cipullo for 
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  The House has set the rules for the 
Opposition's impeachment complaint against President Arroyo. 
The rules will allow the House to refer the complaint to the 
Senate at any point if the Opposition is able to show that it 
has attained requisite support (79 members).  The Opposition 
is now claiming that 52 members have signed its complaint, a 
gain of ten from last count, while pro-Arroyo politicians 
have predicted that they will be able to block the complaint. 
 On August 1, a former Malacanang official publicly accused 
Arroyo of giving payoffs to election officials before the May 
2004 elections.  Malacanang has denied the charges.  The 
Opposition appears less confident that it will be able to 
impeach Arroyo and now seems to be aiming to use the hearings 
more as a platform to criticize her.  End Summary. 
 
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House Sets Rules 
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2.  (U) After heated debate, the House of Representatives has 
adopted rules to govern impeachment proceedings against 
President Arroyo.  (Note:  The Opposition's impeachment 
complaint against Arroyo, filed on July 25, claimed that she 
had engaged in abuse of power and corruption, among other 
charges -- see ref b.  End Note.)  Lawmakers, on August 1, 
settled on the same set of rules used during the impeachment 
of then-President Joseph "Erap" Estrada in 2000-01.  Under 
these rules, additional representatives may sign on to the 
complaint after its initial filing, and, if 1/3 of the House 
(79 members) sign the complaint at any point, hearings will 
be terminated in that body.  Should this happen, the 
President will be considered impeached and the complaint will 
be transmitted to the Senate for the trial to begin.  If the 
figure of 79 members is not reached, however, the impeachment 
complaint will lapse after review in the House for the 
required sixty working days. 
 
3.  (C) Although the House has agreed on the basic framework 
of the rules, pro-Arroyo and Opposition lawmakers continue to 
dispute some of the provisions.  Both sides disagree, for 
example, as to which version of the complaint will be 
accepted by the House.  (Note:  The complaint filed by the 
Opposition on July 25 amended an earlier charge sheet filed 
by a private citizen.  The pro-Arroyo side believes the 
earlier complaint is the official one.  End Note.)  Jimmie 
Policarpio, a former GRP official who is now with the 
Opposition, told Acting Pol/C on August 1 that there remained 
"significant" areas where the two sides "can come into 
conflict over the rules" and he predicted that some matters 
could wind up in the Supreme Court. 
 
4.  (SBU) In terms of next steps, the House Justice Committee 
is scheduled to begin a formal review of the complaint next 
week.  Ronnie Zamora, an Opposition House member, has told us 
that he did not think that the Committee hearings would get 
into an in-depth review of issues until September when he 
said the Opposition would begin to call its main witnesses. 
 
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Jockeying for Support 
--------------------- 
 
5.  (C) Opposition members have said publicly that at least 
10 more lawmakers have signed their impeachment complaint in 
the week since it was filed.  (Note: Forty-two members 
endorsed it on July 25.  End Note.)  The ten new names would 
give the complaint a total of 52 endorsements.  This figure 
remains well short of the 79 endorsements needed in order to 
send the complaint to the Senate.  When asked about the 
status of the complaint by Acting Pol/C on August 2, Ramon 
"Eki" Cardenas, an Opposition figure, replied "so far, so 
good."  Cardenas went on to assert that the opposition felt 
upbeat about its prospects "given that the Opposition has 
gotten many signatures despite huge pressure from Malacanang 
on members not to sign." 
 
6.  (C) Pro-Arroyo politicians respond that they are 
confident that their side has enough support to block the 
impeachment move in the House.  Speaker Jose De Venecia, a 
staunch Arroyo supporter, told us on August 2 that he had 
firm support in the House and could prevent impeachment.  De 
Venecia has publicly announced that the Administration has 
189 firm commitments from lawmakers not to sign the 
impeachment complaint, more than enough to block the 
complaint in the 236-member House. 
 
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A New Allegation 
---------------- 
 
7.  (U) In the meantime, another allegation has cropped up 
against Arroyo.  Michaelangelo Zuce, a former Malacanang 
political operative, asserted in an August 1 press conference 
that President Arroyo had cronies bribe Commission on 
Elections (COMELEC) officials to ensure her  victory in the 
May 2004 elections.  Zuce claimed that he helped arrange -- 
and then personally attended -- two meetings called by the 
President with COMELEC officials where she asked for their 
support in January 2004.  After Arroyo left the meetings, 
Zuce claimed that an Arroyo crony gave 30,000 pesos 
(approximately USD 535) to each COMELEC official present.  He 
further claimed that he personally paid bribes to Mindanao 
election officials using money from Malacanang coffers. 
Malacanang has vigorously denied the charges.  Arroyo, for 
example, publicly labeled the charges as more "black 
propaganda" by the Opposition, claiming that her rights had 
been violated by "quadruple hearsays being headlined and with 
all of the witnesses who...give affidavits for a song (with) 
no way to impugn their credibility." 
 
8.  (U) Congress plans to continue to investigate two other 
scandals impacting on Arroyo.  Hearings on the wiretapped 
conversations between Arroyo and a then-election official are 
scheduled to resume in the House on August 3.  The Senate 
also plans to resume its inquiry into allegations that the 
President's family received payoffs from "jueteng" (illegal 
gambling) operators on August 3.  Zuce is scheduled to 
testify in the Senate hearings on what he knows about jueting. 
 
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Comment 
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9. (C) The pro-Arroyo leadership in the House appears to have 
given into most Opposition demands regarding the rules, 
apparently because it did not want to be perceived as 
blocking the impeachment inquiry.  Although the Opposition 
has picked up some support for its complaint, it appears less 
confident that it will be able to impeach Arroyo, and now 
seems to be aiming to use the hearings more as a platform to 
attack her.  Zuce's claims are difficult to prove, and add to 
the swirl of charges and counter-charges embroiling Filipino 
politics.  Judging from past performance, the Opposition -- 
which is trying hard to recover lost momentum -- is likely to 
continue to hold similar events in which alleged "witnesses" 
make various claims against Arroyo. 
 
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MUSSOMELI