US embassy cable - 05CAIRO5944

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 005944 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR NEA/ELA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/02/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, EG, Elections 
SUBJECT: EGYPT: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS MOVING AHEAD WITH 
CANDIDATE REGISTRATION; HISTORIC OPPOSITION PARTY TO ENTER 
THE RACE 
 
REF: A. CAIRO 5821 
 
     B. CAIRO 5592 
 
Classified By: A/DCM Michael Corbin for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (C) President Mubarak's July 28 announcement of his plans 
to run for a fifth 6-year term in Egypt's first-ever 
multi-candidate presidential election (ref A) was marked by a 
range of reactions, from full support to outright 
disappointment, and an anti-Mubarak rally in downtown Cairo 
on July 30 that was marred by violence (septel).  Meanwhile, 
a number of challengers to Mubarak are registering to run in 
the September 7 election.  In a surprise move late August 1, 
al-Wafd party leader No'man Gomaa reversed his party's 
earlier decision to not field a candidate and announced his 
intention to run, bringing the largest "historic" opposition 
party into the fray.  Most other candidates, with the 
exception of al-Ghad party leader Ayman Nour, are clearly 
engaging in symbolic gestures.  End summary. 
 
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Reaction from Pundits Runs the Whole Spectrum 
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2.  (C)  Both media commentary and Embassy contacts offered a 
range of reactions to President Mubarak's July 28 
announcement to run for the NDP in the September 7 
presidential elections.  Although oppositionists and 
entrenched NDP supporters alike shared the view that 
Mubarak's decision was no real surprise, many offered 
passionate and pointed criticism that would never have 
surfaced in the previous system of presidential referendums: 
 
--Intellectual Amin Al-Mahdy said that Mubarak's decision was 
expected, but part of an "act" that started with the 
"farcical" amendment of Article 76 of the Constitution.  He 
said that "Mubarak's undemocratic and corrupt regime would 
never allow others to reach power.  "The NDP is fooling the 
U.S. into believing that there is ongoing reform and 
democracy in Egypt while in fact the regime is implementing 
what it wants and making it look legal and constitutional." 
 
-- Deputy Director of Al-Ahram's Center for Political and 
Strategic Studies Dr. Mohamed El-Sayyed Said told us that 
Egyptians never doubted that Mubarak would run again for the 
presidency.  If there was any doubt about another term, 
El-Sayyed remarked, Mubarak's address to the nation following 
the Sharm bombings shattered it.  In the end, El-Sayyed 
noted, Mubarak's main reason for running in 2005 was the same 
one he used throughout the 1990s - to combat terrorism. 
 
-- Hisham Qassem of the opposition Al-Ghad Party said that 
although Mubarak wanted the people to think that he was 
preparing his son Gamal for the presidency, "he actually 
planned from the very beginning to run personally."  Qassem 
added that Mubarak was using all means to leave little room 
for competitors.  Nevertheless, Qassem said the Ghad Party 
would fight fiercely. 
 
-- Manar Al-Shorbuggy, chair of the American Studies Center 
at the American University in Cairo, said that while 
Mubarak's July 28 promise of future constitutional change was 
welcome, his ideas were more the demands of opposition 
parties than a unilateral Mubarak initiative.  Al-Shorbuggy 
also observed that Mubarak's proposed constitutional reform 
was vague.  Citing the experience with Article 76, she 
cautioned that the NDP's view of constitutional reform may 
differ significantly from general expectations. 
 
-- Hassan Badrawy of the Al-Wafd Party said Mubarak's 
announcement was expected. Though a Mubarak supporter, he 
noted with disdain that the Cairo's Gezira Sporting Club 
allows for lengthier presidential campaigns.  "Three weeks is 
not nearly enough time for candidates to realistically 
promote themselves or their ideas," he complained.  That 
said, Badrawy said he fully supports Mubarak and his "good 
intentions toward the country," especially over other "very 
weak" candidates or a system based on inheritance.  While 
welcoming the proposed cancellation of the Emergency Law, 
Badrawy feared that a new anti-terrorism law could be worse, 
cautioning that the "ring" of advisors surrounding Mubarak 
"always gives him a wrong picture." 
 
--  Youssef Sidhom, editor-in-chief of the Coptic newspaper 
al-Watani, said that Mubarak was the best available candidate 
for the upcoming elections.  He viewed the current elections 
as a chance for possible candidates to prepare themselves for 
the 2011 elections.  Sidhom criticized the Pope's statement 
supporting the continuity of the Mubarak regime. 
 
--  Emad Siam, member of the Kifaya movement, opposed 
Mubarak,s nomination and stated the Movement was expecting 
someone else from the NDP to run.  He added that Kifaya will 
keep demonstrating against Mubarak and "we will keep trying 
to open people's eyes to the Mubarak regime's shortcomings, 
such as human rights violations, corruption, and economic 
deterioration." 
 
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Demonstrations Turn Ugly 
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3.  (SBU) Mubarak's announcement also precipitated one 
anti-Mubarak demonstration.  On July 30, some 250 protesters 
held a demonstration in central Cairo, which ended with 
police violence and arrests (septel). 
 
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Wafd Party Enters the Race 
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4.  (SBU)  After taking a firm position to not field a 
candidate, but also to not "boycott" the presidential 
election, the al-Wafd Party, historically Egypt's most 
prominent opposition force whose heyday was in the 1930s, 
dramatically changed course on August 1 with the announcement 
that septuagenarian party chairman No'man Gomaa would run for 
president.  In a press conference, Gomaa stated that after 
long deliberations, the Party's Higher Committee decided in a 
30-10 vote to field him as a candidate.  He emphasized, 
however, that this was the party's decision, and that he had 
been one of the members who had opposed his nomination. 
Gomaa also said that Wafd had decided to move forward with 
his nomination even though the pre-conditions set by the 
party had not been met.  The party had earlier decided that 
it would not field a candidate unless the GOE repealed the 
Emergency Law, made available accurate lists of registered 
voters, and provided full judicial supervision of the 
elections.  (Comment:  Most analysts believed that Wafd had 
originally decided not to field a candidate because of fears 
of being embarrassed by low voter support.  End comment.) 
 
5.  (SBU)  Gomaa said that the official campaign period 
(August 17-September 4) was far too short, even for local 
council elections.  He stated it would be impossible for 
independent candidates to obtain the required signatures of 
support from elected members of national and regional 
legislatures.  However, Gomaa said he would do his best to 
win, despite the difficulty in running against Mubarak. 
Gomaa stated that the Wafd Party would likely reject 
government funds (500,000 Egyptian pounds, or about $86,800) 
offered to candidates to finance their campaigns, opting 
instead to use Wafd resources. 
 
6.  (SBU)  Note:  Potential candidates have until August 4 to 
submit registration materials to the 10-member Presidential 
Election Commission.  The commission will then determine 
whether candidates qualify under the recently adopted 
Presidential Elections Law, either as independents or as 
party nominees.  To qualify as an independent, a candidate 
must obtain 250 signatures from elected members of national 
and regional legislatures.  To qualify as a party nominee, 
the candidate's party must have been legally recognized and 
in operation prior to May 2005.  End note. 
 
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And Let's Not Forget the Other Candidates 
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7.  (SBU)  Even as Mubarak kicked off his official campaign, 
other presidential aspirants were making their decisions on 
the upcoming election.  Three would-be candidates have made 
public, symbolic withdrawals from the presidential race: 
Tagammu Party honorary chairman Khalid Mohieldin, prominent 
reformer Saad Eddin Ibrahim, and feminist author Nawal 
Saadawi (ref B).  Others are in various phases of registering 
their candidacy by the August 4 deadline.  Those who have 
made known their intention to run in the September 7 election 
include: 
 
--Wahid al-Oksory, age 52, retired army officer and chairman 
of the Misr Al-Araby Socialist Party; 
 
--Ahmed el-Sabahi, age 90, former Shura Council member and 
chairman of the Umma Party; 
 
--Dr. Fawzi Ghazal, age 73, chairman of the Egypt 2000 Party; 
 
--Refaat Al-Agroudy, age 63, chairman of the al-Wefaq 
al-Qawmy Party; 
--Ibrahim Turk, age 47, chairman of the Unionist Democratic 
Party; 
 
--Dr. Osama Shaltout, former army officer, chairman of the 
Al-Takamoul Party and appointed member of the Shura Council; 
 
--Helmy Salem, age 62, chairman of the Ahrar Party; 
 
--Mamdouh Qenawy, age 69, chairman of the Social Constitional 
Party; 
 
--Ayman Nour, age 40, chairman of the al-Ghad Party. 
 
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Comment 
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8.  (C)  Comment:  Wafd has set sail on what will be a stormy 
and highly improbable path to victory on election day.  But 
given that most candidates are entering the presidential race 
entirely for symbolic reasons, Wafd's decision to field Gomaa 
is welcome.  Its abrupt changing of course to nominate its 
chairman for the presidency and his suggestions that the 
party will use in-house resources to support his run suggests 
that Wafd appears to be taking its campaign against Mubarak 
seriously.  Once approved by the Election Commission, Egypt's 
presidential ballot will be filled with nearly a dozen 
lightweight candidates and two middleweight contenders (Gomaa 
and al-Ghad party leader Ayman Nour), all entering a race 
where the clear favorite, by a long shot, remains President 
Mubarak.  End comment. 
 
 
Visit Embassy Cairo's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/cairo 
 
You can also access this site through the 
State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. 
 
JONES