US embassy cable - 05KUWAIT3422

C O N F I D E N T I A L KUWAIT 003422 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/ARPI, LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS FOR ZEYA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, KWMN, KISL, KU 
SUBJECT: IN KUWAIT, POLITICS AS USUAL AFTER DEATH OF SAUDI 
KING FAHD 
 
Classified By: Political Chief Natalie E. Brown for reasons 1.4 (b) and 
 (d) 
 
1. (SBU)  Summary: The death of Saudi King Fahd elicited 
little surprise in Kuwait.  With both the Amir and the Crown 
Prince old and ailing, however, King Fahd's death has renewed 
speculation on Kuwait's own succession issues (septel). 
Crown Prince Abdullah's accession to the Saudi throne will 
have little impact on Saudi-Kuwait relations, sources say. 
One Kuwaiti political observer predicted King Abdullah would 
try to reassert control over the Gulf Cooperation Council 
(GCC), particularly vis-a-vis relations with Qatar and the 
United Arab Emirates (UAE).  Post contacts disagreed over 
King Abdullah's ability, and desire, to implement reforms. 
All indications suggest it will be politics as usual in 
Kuwait after King Fahd's death. End summary. 
 
Kuwait Remembers the King 
------------------------- 
 
2. (SBU)  While largely expected, Kuwaitis still reacted 
emotionally to King Fahd's death.  Kuwaiti newspapers ran 
multiple-page articles covering King Fahd's death and 
reflecting on his role in the liberation of Kuwait from Iraq 
in 1991.  August 2 is the fifteenth anniversary of Saddam 
Hussein's invasion of Kuwait. 
 
Affect on Saudi Politics 
------------------------ 
 
3. (C)  On August 2, PolOff and PDOff met separately with 
former editor-in-chief of Arabic daily Al-Watan Mohammed 
Al-Jassem and Kuwaiti liberal Ahmed Deyain, both astute 
political observers in Kuwait, to discuss the ramifications 
of King Fahd's death.  Reflecting on the impact of King 
Fahd's death on Saudi internal politics, Al-Jassem said King 
Abdullah's new power would allow him to implement reforms 
over the objections of other family members, most notably 
Prince Sultan, now Crown Prince, and Interior Minister Prince 
Nayef.  He predicted King Abdullah would release three 
recently imprisoned reform activists, give women the right to 
vote in national elections, and renew the battle against 
Islamic extremists.  Al-Jassem suggested the U.S. should 
support these efforts "quietly." 
 
4. (C)  Deyain, however, argued that King Abdullah will still 
face resistance to reform from Princes Sultan and Nayef, who 
have considerable influence within the Saudi royal family. 
Al-Jassem agreed that Prince Nayef was the greatest obstacle 
to reform in Saudi Arabia, but was more optimistic about King 
Abdullah's ability to circumvent him.  Al-Jassem also noted 
that Kuwaiti Prime Minister Shaykh Sabah does not like Saudi 
Crown Prince Sultan, which might have political implications 
should the Crown Prince become the next Saudi King. 
 
Affect on Kuwait 
---------------- 
 
5. (C)  Deyain predicted the death of King Fahd would have 
one of two effects on Kuwait: either the ruling family would 
be spurred to address the succession question now, or, more 
characteristically, the Prime Minister would delay a decision 
on the issue as long as possible.  Deyain speculated that the 
Al-Sabahs would prefer to deal with the succession issue 
within the family, rather than turn it over to a complicated 
process involving the National Assembly.  He suggested the 
family might convince Crown Prince Shaykh Saad Al-Salim 
Al-Sabah to abdicate, rather than be forced to resign. 
 
Affect on GCC 
------------- 
 
6. (C)  Al-Jassem speculated that King Abdullah would try to 
reassert Saudi control over the GCC.  He predicted Saudi 
relations with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates would be 
particularly affected.  Deyain differed slightly arguing 
that, while relations with Qatar and the UAE would remain 
tense, Saudi political focus would shift from the Gulf 
countries to other Arab states, notably Egypt and Syria. 
Neither predicted major foreign policy shifts, however. 
 
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