US embassy cable - 02HARARE2128

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 002128 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/17/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, ZI 
SUBJECT: PARLIAMENT AGENDA FOLLOWING ZANU-PF'S COURSE 
 
REF: HARARE 01992 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL OFFICER KIMBERLY JEMISON.  REASONS 1.5(B) AND 
(D) 
 
 1. (C) SUMMARY:  Parliament resumed September 10, after a 
5-week adjournment, amid speculation that one of the top 
ZANU-PF priorities would be a bill to amend the 
constitutional requirement that presidential elections be 
held within 90 days after a president vacates office. 
ZANU-PF pushed through legislation to ease acquisition of 
farms and will also try to push through legislation that will 
curtail the ability of workers to strike and disenfranchise 
thousands of voters.  While not having a clear legislative 
agenda of their own, the MDC will try to slow or stop the 
passage of these bills and strengthen the role of the 
parliamentary committees in the legislative process. END 
SUMMARY. 
 
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THE FIRST WEEK--ZANU-PF SETS THE STAGE 
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2.  (U) The first week of the Third Session of Parliament 
began with the usual MDC protests and ZANU-PF manipulation of 
parliamentary procedure.  MDC MPs walked out of Parliament on 
September 10 and 11 when debate started on President 
Mugabe,s parliamentary opening speech in late July because 
the MDC does not recognize him as the legitimate president of 
Zimbabwe.  Minister of Justice, Legal, and Parliamentary 
Affairs and ZANU-PF's leader in Parliament, Patrick Chinamasa 
vowed that the government will come up with measures to deal 
with opposition MPs who walk out of the House, adding that it 
showed a lack of patriotism to take such action during a 
Presidential speech.  (NOTE: As we have previously reported, 
the MDC is challenging Mugabe,s victory in court, citing 
rigging and intimidation in the March presidential election. 
The MDC boycotted Mugabe,s speech at the opening of 
Parliament in late July. END NOTE.) 
 
3.  (U) The ruling party has used its parliamentary majority 
to run roughshod over the substantial--but minority--MDC 
presence.  On September 11, the House passed a motion that 
will minimize the MDC's influence on the passage of the Land 
Acquisition Amendment Bill by suspending various standing 
rules which a bill must undergo before becoming law.  This 
was in response to the difficulty ZANU-PF has had in 
providing a legal veneer for its land redistribution 
exercise.  Among the suspended orders was the requirement 
bills be introduced 14 days after publication in the gazette 
and that bills be referred to portfolio committees before 
consideration by the full house.  The House also suspended 
the constitutional requirement that all bills be certified by 
the Parliamentary Legal Committee.  (NOTE: Parliament has a 
history of suspending standing orders when the ZANU-PF 
members feel they cannot pass legislation but it has never 
tampered with constitutional requirements.  Standing Orders 
can only be suspended for one bill at a time. Only a simple 
majority is necessary to suspend standing orders, whereas a 
two-thirds vote is required for constitutional changes.  END 
NOTE.) 
 
4.  (U) On September 18, Parliament passed the Land 
Acquisition Amendment Bill, three days after publishing it in 
the gazette.  Chinamasa moved to suspend the standing order 
concerning automatic adjournment of the House at 6:55 PM so 
that the bill could pass.  The bill makes farm acquisitions 
easier by reducing the number of days farmers have to vacate 
their lands after a Section 8 compulsory acquisition notice 
from 90 to 7.  The amendment also relaxes the requirement 
that an acquiring authority prove that rural lands are 
suitable for agricultural resettlement if the acquired land 
will be used for that purpose and if the land has been used 
for agriculture purposes any time in the preceding 50 years. 
In addition, fines for landowners who resist evictions would 
increase five-fold from Z20,000 to Z100,000 (approximately 
$145 at the parallel rate) and the Government would be able 
reissue Section 8 orders, with much shorter vacancy times, to 
replace previous invalid orders. 
 
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ZANU-PF WILL TRY TO SECURE EXECUTIVE POWER 
---------------------------------------- 
5.  (C) ZANU-PF will likely try to bolster its hold on power 
by attempting to pass legislation that would stifle 
dissenters and secure the presidency for the party after 
President Mugabe's departure.  We have heard reports from a 
variety of sources that ZANU-PF is trying to convince some 
MDC MPs to vote in favor of a constitutional amendment 
allowing an acting president for more than the 
constitutionally allowed 90 days.  ZANU-PF is seven votes 
short of the two-thirds majority needed to push through any 
constitutional amendment.  (NOTE:  Unlike other bills, a 
constitutional amendment bill need not receive a stamp of 
approval from the Parliamentary Legal Committee (PLC).  All 
that is required is a two-thirds majority and that it be 
published in the Gazette not less than 30 days before it is 
introduced in Parliament.  END NOTE.) 
 
6.  (C) In a meeting with Poloff on September 11, Victor 
Chitongo, a ZANU-PF MP from Murehwa North in Mashonaland 
East, confirmed that there is some truth to the rumors of a 
constitutional amendment. He claimed that Mugabe would like 
to retire in three years and was actually ready to retire 
last year but was urged to stay on by several of his 
appointed cabinet members (Patrick Chinamasa, Joseph Made, 
and Jonathan Moyo).  Chitongo claimed that if Mugabe were to 
step down now, with no obvious successor, a nasty power 
struggle would ensue.  He also said there is some dissension 
within ZANU-PF, generally along age lines, about who should 
succeed Mugabe as ZANU-PF leader.  Before Simba Makoni,s 
dismissal from Cabinet and Parliament, he was a front-runner 
for president among the younger set.  Now only Speaker of 
Parliament Emmerson Mnangagwa is the only clear heir 
apparent, and he is more favored by the old guard. 
 
7.  (C) COMMENT: ZANU-PF will have difficulty overcoming the 
seven-vote deficit in the near-term.  It is unlikely that any 
of the MDC's MPs will cross the aisle to vote with the ruling 
party because of party loyalty.  In addition, only one 
by-election is currently scheduled to fill a seat left vacant 
by the death of an MDC MP.  The former incumbent won the seat 
with 64  percent of the vote in 2000.  We would not rule out 
GOZ efforts to necessitate by-election by imprisoning MDC MPs 
on trumped-up charges, but winning those would not be a sure 
thing.  MP Chitongo's statement that Mugabe would like to 
retire in three years suggests that he might be waiting until 
after the next round of Parliamentary elections in the hopes 
that ZANU-PF can acquire a two-thirds majority and change the 
constitution at that time.  END COMMENT. 
 
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OTHER BILLS TO TIGHTEN GOVERNMENT CONTROL 
----------------------------------------- 
8.  (C) ZANU-PF will also try to push through several other 
controversial bills including the Labor Relations Amendment 
Bill, published in the government gazette in November 2001, 
which received an adverse report from the PLC in late July 
and will need to be reworked.  The Bill places major 
restrictions on collective actions (strikes, boycotts, 
sit-ins, etc.) that are not to address an employment related 
demand or that are likely to cause prejudice to the 
Zimbabwean economy. The Bill also gives the Minister of 
Public Service, Labor, and Social Welfare the power to decide 
whether a trade union, labor center or employers, 
organization should be deregistered for recommending, 
encouraging, inciting, organizing or associating itself with 
an unlawful collective job action. 
 
9.  (C) Equally controversial is the Electoral Amendment Bill 
that was referred to the PLC before Parliament recessed.  The 
Electoral Amendment Bill, gazetted in March 2002 after many 
of its provisions were declared unconstitutional by the 
Supreme Court, would impose a range of restrictions that 
would disenfranchise many voters, prevent civic organizations 
from engaging in voter education, limit election monitoring 
and observation, and prevent posting of posters and other 
campaign materials on walls, trees, etc. without the 
permission of the owner.  Under the Bill, only diplomatic 
staff and defense force personnel will be able to vote by 
absentee ballot, thereby depriving the large numbers of 
Zimbabweans outside the country of their right to vote. 
Proof of residency in a particular electoral constituency may 
also disenfranchise boarders.  (Ironically, six months after 
the presidential elections in which many residents of 
Malawian, Mozambican, and Zambian origin were disenfranchised 
by electoral rules then enforced, Justice Minister Chinamasa 
announced that long-time residents of Zimbabwe of SADC 
country origin were to be permitted Zimbabwe citizenship.) 
The Bill also restricts voter education to the 
president-appointed Electoral Supervisory Commission (ESC). 
Any foreign donations for the purpose of voter education must 
go through the ESC. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
PARLIAMENTARY REFORMS--TWO STEPS FORWARD ONE STEP BACK 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
10.  (C) Parliamentary reforms continue to move forward 
particularly in the committee system but in the House 
attempts to derail the process continue.  The most recent 
being Chinamasa's motion to suspend the Standing Order that 
the Land Acquisition Amendment Bill go to a portfolio 
committee for review.  In this case, he also suspended the 
Standing Order  for the Bill to go to the PLC, which is 
unconstitutional.  On September 19, the Budget and Finance 
Committee held a public hearing to discuss the Value Added 
Tax Bill (VAT).  The hearing was well attended with several 
groups making presentations that raised issues if the VAT 
passes. 
 
11.  (U) In late August, while Parliament was in recess, the 
Standing Rules and Orders Committee (SROC) appointed new 
chairs for three of the 16 committees. The Committee gave two 
reasons for the reappointments: to appoint some women as 
chairpersons and to replace poor performers.  The SROC 
changed chairpersonships of the Public Accounts; Justice; and 
Youth Development, Gender and Employment Creation committees. 
 Women will head two committees, up from none last year, and 
the MDC five, the same as last year.  MDC MP Priscilla 
Misihairabwi will chair the Public Accounts Committee (PAC), 
replacing Reuben Marumahoko who was promoted to Deputy 
Minister of Energy and Power Development.  The PAC is the 
auditing committee and, in regional countries, the 
chairpersonship is traditionally held by the opposition . In 
exchange for this, the MDC had to give up the chair to the 
Justice Committee.  Former Youth Development, Gender and 
Employment Creation Committee Chair ZANU-PF MP Shedreck 
Chipanga will assume the position from David Coltart. 
ZANU-PF MP Esther Nyauchi will be the new Youth Development, 
Gender and Employment Creation Committee Chair. 
 
12. (C) The SROC completed half of what they set out to do. 
They appointed more women to committee chair but did not 
replace the poor performers who never held meetings, 
boycotted training sessions, didn't seem to grasp their role, 
or used their positions as a platform for partisan purposes. 
On this last score, ZANU-PF MPs Chiyangwa, Chapfika, and 
Kasukuwere were the primary culprits. 
 
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MDC PLAYING REACTIONARY ROLE 
---------------------------- 
13.  (C) The MDC has no well-defined agenda for this session. 
 Their role has been and will continue to be reactionary. 
They will try to block legislation that they feel is 
unconstitutional and will try to bolster the power of the 
portfolio committees.  MDC MPs will also continue to subject 
Executive Branch actions to closer public scrutiny. 
 
COMMENT: 
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14.  (C) ZANU-PF will most likely push the proposed 
legislation through Parliament using parliamentary 
manipulations the MDC can do little to counter.  MDC walkouts 
do not stop the legislative process; they just make it easier 
for ZANU-PF to move bills through Parliament.  As long as the 
MDC can keep from losing seats to ZANU-PF in by-elections, 
they will be able to prevent a constitutional amendment 
changing the succession rules. 
SULLIVAN