US embassy cable - 02KATHMANDU1853

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 001853 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS AND DS/OP/NEA 
LONDON FOR POL - RIEDEL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2012 
TAGS: PTER, PGOV, CASC, NP, Maoist Insurgency 
SUBJECT: NEPAL'S MAOISTS ANNOUNCE NEW PROGRAM OF AGITATION 
 
REF: A. (A) KATHMANDU 1832 
 
     B. (B) KATHMANDU 1797 
     C. (C) KATHMANDU 1772 
 
Classified By: POL PMAHONEY.  REASON:  1.5 (B,D). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C)  Maoist insurgents, apparently hoping to keep up the 
momentum from their successful September 16 general strike, 
have announced a fresh campaign of agitation, including a 
three-day general strike preceding scheduled national 
Parliamentary elections in November.  The press release, 
dated September 21, also notes the Maoists' readiness to 
resume negotiations and enter into a ceasefire if "a positive 
political solution" to the conflict is found.  Prime Minister 
Sher Bahadur Deuba has expressed willingness to resume 
negotiations with the insurgents in principle, but the 
Maoists' shadowy organization and surreptitious methods leave 
him unsure of which would-be mediators are authoritative 
interlocutors.  The burden remains on the Maoists to assure 
the Government of the sincerity of their overtures.   The 
insurgents have released the pilot and passenger abducted 
after the destruction of their helicopter September 19.  The 
Maoists have also released 200 students in eastern Nepal's 
Ramechhap District kidnapped from their school the same day. 
End summary. 
 
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MAOISTS PROCLAIM MORE AGITATION, 
THREE-DAY BANDH 
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2.  (U) Apparently hoping to capitalize on the relative 
success of their September 16 general strike, or "bandh" (Ref 
B), the Maoists have announced a new program of agitation, 
protests, and "mobilization," culminating in a three-day 
nationwide bandh November 11-13 that coincides with the 
beginning of national elections.  The September 21 press 
release, issued on behalf of the Maoists' central committee 
by Maoist leaders Prachanda and Baburam Bhattarai and deemed 
authentic by media outlets, labels the November 13 elections 
a feudal "conspiracy" and notes the "threat" of royal 
intervention under Clause 127 of the Constitution (Ref C). 
To protest against both the "sham" elections and the 
possibility of royal intervention, the release announced the 
following five-stage program: 
 
Sept 22 - Oct. 6:  Publicity/propaganda 
Oct. 7 - Oct. 27:  Regonal/local-level programs (not further 
identified); 
Oct. 27:  Strike in Terai (southern plains area along Indian 
border) and Tharuwan (southwestern districts of Banke, 
Bardiya, Kailali, and Kanchanpur); 
Oct. 28 - Nov. 10:  "Vast public mobilization"; 
Nov. 11 - Nov. 13:  Nepal Bandh (nationwide general strike). 
 
3.  (U)  The press release notes the Maoists' earlier calls 
for "negotiation for an immediate political solution," and 
asserted they remain open to resuming talks.  "We guarantee 
more flexibility and responsibility and would like to say if 
a conducive solution is found, then we will be ready for a 
ceasefire and will withdraw the programs scheduled."   If, 
however, "the feudal tyrannical rulers are obstinate . . we 
will fight to the death and continue the scheduled programs." 
 
 
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PM OPEN TO TALKS IN PRINCIPLE, 
BUT WHO TO TALK WITH? 
------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba has told the 
Ambassador he is open to resuming talks with the Maoists, but 
remains uncertain which of numerous would-be interlocutors 
can speak authoritatively for the Maoist leadership (Ref C). 
Having been duped by the Maoists in talks last year, the PM 
is doubly cautious this time.  He fears the allusions to 
talks may be no more than a ploy to buy time and to postpone 
national elections he has pledged to hold on time. If the 
Maoists genuinely want to negotiate, he reasons, they know 
where to find him. 
 
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HELO PILOT, PASSENGER SAFE 
--------------------------- 
5.  (SBU)  The pilot and passenger of a helicopter destroyed 
by Maoist insurgents while on a humanitarian mission in 
Solukhumbu District September 19 (Ref A) were set free late 
the following day and have since returned to Kathmandu 
safely.  The pilot, Arun Malla, said his captors were mainly 
teenage boys about 15-16 years of age who eventually 
apologized for holding him.  They explained they had a 
mission to destroy all aircraft that could be used in 
security operations against them and said they meant him no 
personal harm.  (Note:  Security forces occasionally use 
charter aircraft, especially helicopters.  The helicopter 
destroyed in this incident, however, was on a humanitarian 
mission to airlift a sick man to Kathmandu to attend the 
funeral of his wife.  End note.) 
 
6.  (SBU)  Malla said he was well treated during his brief 
captivity, most of which was spent marching through dense 
jungle.  He overnighted with his captors in a 
Maoist-controlled village, where he met the 27-year-old local 
commander and was given a meal of potatoes.  He was then 
marched some distance the following day to neighboring 
Khotang District, where he was able to call his family and 
employers on his cell phone, advise them of his whereabouts, 
and ask for a helicopter to pick him and his fellow captive 
up.  The Maoists then returned his wallet, which they had 
confiscated earlier, and urged him to count the money to be 
sure that it was all there.  Karnali Air sent another 
helicopter to the location, which landed without incident and 
picked up the captives. 
 
7.  (SBU)  The owner of Karnali Air, retired Army officer and 
former MP Narayan Singh Pun, told us the loss of this 
helicopter leaves only four in his inventory.  (Note:  The 
Embassy relies upon Karnali for all its medevacs from the 
Annapurna Circuit.  Karnali is also one of just a few 
companies capable of performing medevacs from the Everest 
Base Camp.  End note.) Another aviation source speculated 
that insurance rates, already climbing because of the 
insurgency, might be raised yet again, putting the ability of 
private helo operators to continue air services in question. 
A September 22 meeting chaired by Civil Aviation Minister Bal 
Bahadur K.C. (who is from Solukhumbu District and, who, 
according to local press, had personally requested the 
hapless special flight), decided that no more helicopter 
flights will take place to areas where the security 
environment is inadequate. 
 
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RECRUITMENT RAID IN RAMECHHAP? 
------------------------------ 
 
8.  (U)  On September 19 Maoists abducted approximately 200 
people, including students and teachers from a village in 
Ramechhap District in the east.  The students ranged in age 
from 12 to 16.  According to the Ramechhap Chief District 
Office (CDO), the captives were taken to Okhaldunga, a 
neighboring district to the east.  All of the captives were 
later released and returned safely to Ramechhap the same 
evening.  No one at the CDO's Office could say why the 
captives were taken to Okhaldunga or why they were abducted 
in the first place, although there was some speculation that 
the Maoists had may have wanted to recruit the abductees as 
cadre. 
 
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COMMENT 
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9.  (C)  Both the destruction of the helicopter and the 
apparent mass abduction in Ramechhap are further indications 
of the ever-deteriorating law and order situation in the 
country, and demonstrate the continued brutal tactics of the 
Maoists.  The helicopter incident could further limit our 
ability to medevac sick AmCits from remote locations.  The 
Maoists' announcement of their campaign intensifies 
pre-election pressure on the Government of Nepal (GON), 
already under fire from other political parties, to re-engage 
in talks.  Until the Maoists can demonstrate the seriousness 
of this latest offer, however, the PM will be hard pressed to 
take them up on it.  Having let the Maoists know that he is 
open to talks under the right conditions, the Prime Minister 
has put the burden back on the insurgents to prove their 
sincerity. 
MALINOWSKI