US embassy cable - 02RANGOON1218

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 001218 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV 
CINCPAC FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, BM 
SUBJECT: RUMORED PROMOTIONS IN THE SPDC 
 
Classified By: COM CARMEN M. MARTINEZ FOR REASON 1.5(D). 
 
1. (C)  Summary:  News services are reporting that the State 
Peace and Development Council has promoted some of its top 
generals.  Although the SPDC has not officially announced the 
promotions, rumors in Rangoon appear to indicate that at 
least four of the top Generals may have been promoted.  If 
true, the promotions would be a further consolidation of 
power by Senior General Than Shwe, ensuring control over his 
top echelons.  It is too early to judge whether this 
consolidation of power would indicate that the Senior General 
is positioning for continued military control of the country 
or if he may be setting the stage for a transition to 
civilian government. End Summary. 
 
2. (C)  Information provided by Embassy contacts appears to 
support reports by Kyodo News and the BBC that the SPDC has 
promoted some of its top brass.  Although the SPDC has not 
announced any promotions, rumors in Rangoon indicate that at 
least four of the senior brass may have been promoted; 
General Maung Aye has been promoted to Deputy Senior General, 
Lt. General Khin Nyunt has been promoted to General, and two 
Major Generals, Thura Shwe Mann and Kyaw Win, have been 
promoted to Lt. Generals.  If these promotions are confirmed, 
they will indicate a consolidation of power by Senior General 
Than Shwe.  Promoting Maung Aye to Deputy Senior General ( a 
position that has never existed before) will end speculation 
on possible jockeying for position between he and Lt. General 
Khin Nyunt.  Promoting Khin Nyunt to General, reportedly with 
duties as "Military Advisor," will move him up from his 
traditional role as head of the country's infamous Military 
Intelligence.  This may help make him more palatable with the 
international community as a regime interlocutor and put to 
rest doubts about any lingering allegiance to his mentor, 
ex-strongman General Ne Win.  Kyaw Win will presumably take 
up Khin Nyunt's old position as intelligence chief and Thura 
Shwe Mann, who is now Chief of Staff - Army, may move up into 
Maung Aye's position of Deputy Commander in Chief of Defense 
Services.  Both of these Generals are stalwart Than Shwe 
supporters.  Their positions just below Maung Aye and Khin 
Nyunt will keep the latter focused on supporting the Senior 
General.  If there are any weaknesses, they will know they 
could easily be replaced. 
 
Comment 
 
3. (C)  Again these promotions are still just rumors at this 
point.  If they are verified, they are clearly an effort by 
Senior General Than Shwe to consolidate his position and 
control.  It is still too early to judge, however, whether 
these moves would indicate his desire to perpetuate military 
control of the country or perhaps move slowly toward some 
form of civilian control.  There is speculation that the SPDC 
will have to do something soon to mitigate international 
criticism that it has stalled on progress toward dialogue 
with the NLD.  This consolidation may be part of a strategy 
to defray this criticism.  That strategy, if it exists, is 
not yet clear to Rangoon observers. 
Martinez