US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI5913

C O N F I D E N T I A L  NEW DELHI 005913 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/29/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PBTS, PINS, SMIG, PREL, BD, IN, Test 
SUBJECT: INDIAN SUPREME COURT DEFENDS ASSAM AGAINST 
"BANGLADESHI AGGRESSION" 
 
REF: A. NEW DELHI 4330 
 
     B. NEW DELHI 5318 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Geoffrey Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Amidst continuing anguish over the growing 
number of illegal Bangladeshi immigrants in India, the 
Supreme Court on July 13 repealed the Illegal Migrants 
(Determination by Tribunals) (IMDT) Act in Assam, marking a 
victory for the BJP and Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and paving 
the way for more liberal deportation procedures.  Many 
Indians have grown weary of continued Bangladeshi migration 
to the Northeast region, and attribute migrants to changing 
demographics, a rise in crime, a drop in wages, and possible 
connections to terrorists.  Assam has borne the brunt of this 
migration.  The Congress government, which passed the IMDT 
Act in 1983, has been accused of catering to mostly-Muslim 
Bangladeshi migrants in order to use them as a vote bank, and 
of allowing "demographic aggression" in Assam.  The total 
lack of political will by the Congress-led government, as 
well as logistical obstacles to implementation will likely 
blunt any surge in deportations, but the repeal will 
nonetheless intensify communal politics in Assam and hurt the 
Congress party's electoral prospects ahead of spring 2006 
elections there.  FM Natwar Singh's August 6 trip to Dhaka 
will provide an opportunity to discuss migration issues and 
temper any negative effects of the repeal on Indo-Bangla 
relations.  End Summary. 
 
IMDT:  A Clever Sham to Build a Voting Block 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) A Congress Party government passed the IMDT Act in 
1983 at the height of an anti-foreigner (read: Bangladeshi) 
uprising spearheaded by the All Assam Student's Union (AASU) 
in response to the growing number of Bangladeshi refugees in 
Assam.  The new law supplanted the Foreigner's Act, which 
still governs the rest of the country, and was intended to 
assuage the anti-immigrant groups by setting up a judicial 
mechanism in the form of tribunals to determine the 
nationality of a suspect.  In practice, it made deportations 
more difficult by moving the burden of proof of nationality 
from the suspect (as under the Foreigner's Act) to the 
accuser, i.e., in most cases, the government, but also 
private citizens and entities.  The Congress government used 
the act to pay lip service to expulsions for electoral gain 
while allowing illegal immigration to continue unabated. 
 
3.  (SBU) As a result, the IMDT Act became widely viewed by 
ethnic Assamese, their parties, and the national BJP party as 
a hurdle to identifying and deporting illegal Bangladeshi 
migrants in Assam.  Largely-Hindu opposition parties such as 
the AGP and the BJP deemed the law "migrant friendly" and 
accused the Congress of shoring up its vote base by giving 
Muslim Bangladeshis the right to vote.  As the AGP, All-Assam 
Students' Union (AASU) and BJP began to agitate against the 
ineffective and duplicitously-named law, Congress defended it 
on the ground that it helped prevent genuine citizens from 
being harassed.  After former ASSU President and AGP MP 
Sarbananda Sonowal registered a Public Interest Litigation 
(PIL) against the bill in 2000 and the NDA government 
introduced a bill in Parliament to repeal the act in May 
2003, the Supreme Court struck it down on July 12, 2005. 
 
Court: IMDT was Ineffective and Unconstitutional 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
4.  (U) In its 114 page judgment, the Supreme Court ruled 
 
 
that the IMDT's lengthy and complicated deportation policies 
were not adequate to protect the state and its residents from 
illegal immigrants.  Accusing the GOI of failing in its "duty 
to take all measures for (Assam's) protection as enjoined in 
Article 355 (of the Indian Constitution)," the court said 
that "Assam is facing external aggression and internal 
disturbance on account of large-scale illegal immigration of 
Bangladeshi nationals."  As a result, life in Assam is 
"wholly insecure and the panic generated thereby created a 
fear of psychosis."  The verdict blamed the IMDT Act for 
"coming to the advantage of illegal migrants, as any 
proceedings initiated against them ends in their favor and 
enables them to have a document having official sanctity to 
the effect that they are not illegal migrants." 
 
5.  (U) Since the IMDT was passed in 1983, deportations in 
Assam have reportedly decreased considerably compared to 
neighboring states.  The "Economic Times" reported that 
300,000 people were deported from Assam between 1962 and 
1984.  During the first twenty years of the IMDT Act, only 
about 1500 illegal migrants were deported from Assam.  By 
comparison, under the Foreigner's Act in West Bengal, 489,046 
people were deported from 1983 to 1998.  A "Times of India" 
story reported that the Muslim population of Assam witnessed 
a 77 percent growth between 1971-1991, while Hindu growth 
registered a 41 percent increase.  (Note: Immigration numbers 
are difficult to find and often exaggerated to support 
opposition claims.  An Institute of Peace and Conflict 
Studies article claimed that the latest census figures 
actually show that the overall growth rate in Assam between 
1991 and 2001 was only 18 percent, which is three percent 
less than the national average.  End Note.) 
 
Put the Blame on Vote-bank Politics 
----------------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) Anti-immigration groups have accused Congress of 
producing a demographic change in the Northeast by illegally 
giving status and voting rights to minorities.  In a recent 
editorial, BJP MP Balbir Punj reports that the 2001 census 
showed that Muslims have become or are near to a majority 
population in ten out of 23 districts.  An Institute for 
Conflict Management study by Wasbir Hussain points out that 
Muslim voters are a deciding factor in almost half of Assam's 
126 State Assembly constituencies.  Suhas Chakma of the Asian 
Center for Human Rights explained that the perceived increase 
in Muslim voters has led to communal discord, and as a 
result, most Congress opposition groups run almost entirely 
on anti-immigration platforms. 
 
7.  (C) Although Congress publicly supported the IMDT Act, 
Kirip Chaliha, an MP of the party from Assam, told Poloff 
that the repeal has been met with a "majority sense of 
relief."  Acknowledging that the act "put the government and 
all of its apparatus in favor of the migrants," he said the 
repeal was important to the people of Assam as a "signal that 
the government will not legitimize the presence of 
Bangladeshi migrants."  Although Congress must publicly 
oppose the repeal, Chaliha agreed privately that the act was 
a detriment to security and that the government "can-not be 
blind on infiltration."  Despite the public pressure on 
Congress to fight against the repeal and introduce further 
legislation ahead of state elections in 2006, Chaliha told 
Poloff that the party will privately not oppose the decision. 
 Congress Chief Minister of Assam Tarun Gogoi said that he 
would create an alternative law, but Assam's UPA Cabinet has 
settled for creating a Group of Ministers to review the 
repeal and "come up with an appropriate response." 
 
 
BJP Sees National Advantage in Backwoods Politics 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
8.  (C) A perception among Muslims that Congress failed to 
protect them may hurt the party's electoral chances and give 
a boost to opposition BJP and AGP parties in Assam. 
Political Counselor for the Bangladesh High Commission 
Mashfee Binte Shams worried that an apparent split in the AGP 
and a weak BJP base will cause opposition parties to increase 
agitation against suspected migrants, most of whom are 
Muslim.  Suhas Chakma noted that the repeal would initially 
help the opposition parties, but predicted this court victory 
would take the steam out of their anti-immigrant campaigns 
and actually hurt their support in the long run.  Emboldened 
by the court victory, the BJP brought the Congress's "abysmal 
failure to protect the eastern borders against illegal 
immigration" to the national spotlight by filing a motion in 
Parliament on July 26 to discuss the issue on a national 
stage.  If the debate in Parliament resonates well, the 
illegal immigration may play a larger role in BJP national 
platforms. 
 
Don't Expect the Assam Congress to Ramp Up Deportation 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
9.  (C)  The repeal of the IMDT Act has simplified the 
process of removing illegal migrants, but the lack of 
political will in Congress-led Assam and obstacles to 
implementation will likely prevent a big rise in the number 
of deportations.  Assam MP Chaliha emphasized that Muslims 
would not really suffer from the repeal as long as Congress 
was in power because there is no political will under the 
ruling government to mobilize the police, courts and 
politicians to find and deport illegal migrants.  Even if the 
AGP or BJP come to power in the upcoming elections, Smruti 
Pattanaik from the Institute of Defense Studies and Analyses 
(IDSA) pointed out that proving that an Assamese resident is 
illegally present is extremely difficult because Bangladeshis 
can easily obtain ration cards and have their names added to 
the voter's lists, which are two primary ways of proving 
Indian citizenship.  If the migrant is found guilty under the 
Foreigner's Act, Shillong-based Hasina Kharbhih explained 
that there is no effective system for deportation and guards 
at the Bangladesh border usually refuse to re-admit the 
"foreigner" without proof of citizenship.  As a result, Asian 
Center for Human Rights president Chakma predicted that most 
deported immigrants disappear into another state in the 
Northeast rather than returning to Bangladesh.  He said that 
migrants were only effectively deported when they were caught 
along the border and could be immediately returned, which is 
reflected in the higher numbers of Bangladeshis deported from 
along the border of West Bengal. 
 
Bangladeshi Reaction: Not our Problem, but India's 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
10.  (C) Coming at a time of increased Indo-Bangla engagement 
(Ref B), the repeal threatens to increase tension along the 
border (Ref QhJU&>B6Ax