US embassy cable - 90STATE244856

C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 244856 
 
FOLLOWING BAGHDAD MRN 04277 DTG 26 JUL 90 SENT ACTION 
SECSTATE WASHDC INFO ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE BEING 
REPEATED FOR UR INFO: 
 
QUOTE : C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 04277 
 
E.O. 12356:  DECL:OADR 
TAGS:  PREL, KU, IZ 
SUBJECT:  IRAQ BLINKS -- PROVISIONALLY 
 
1.  CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT. 
 
2.  SUMMARY.  SADDAM HAS BLINKED:  HOSTILE 
REFERENCES TO KUWAIT HAVE DISAPPEARED FROM THE 
MEDIA AND IRAQ WILL ATTEND A MEETING WITH 
SENIOR KUWAITI OFFICIALS IN JEDDAH.  BUT 
ANTI-KUWAITI SENTIMENT CONTINUES STRONG HERE 
AT ALL SOCIAL LEVELS, DRIVEN BY JEALOUSY, 
BITTERNESS AND CONTEMPT.  END SUMMARY. 
 
WHAT DISPUTE? 
 
3.  AS FAR AS IRAQ'S GOVERNMENT-DIRECTED MEDIA 
JULY 26 ARE CONCERNED, THE DISPUTE WITH KUWAIT 
IS A "SUMMER CLOUD."  GONE ARE THE HEADLINES 
OUTLINING KUWAITI MISBEHAVIOUR, GONE ARE THE 
AD HOMINEM ATTACKS ON KUWAIT FONMIN SABAH, 
GONE ARE THE EDITORIALS OUTLINING IRAQ'S CASE. 
 
4.  INSTEAD, THE MEDIA FOCUS IS BACK ON DOMESTIC 
AFFAIRS (THE DRAFT CONSTITUTION) AND THEY 
HIGHLIGHT CONTINUING DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY: 
 
- SADDAM RECEIVING A PHONE CALL FROM MUBARAK. 
(BUT MUBARAK IS NOT GIVEN CREDIT FOR MEDIATING 
AND THERE IS NO/NO MENTION OF THE UPCOMING 
KUWAIT-IRAQI MEETING IN JEDDAH). 
 
- SADDAM'S ENVOYS DELIVERING THEIR MESSAGES IN 
THE GULF AND MAGREB. 
 
- SADDAM MEETING WITH ARAB LEAGUE SYG KLIBI TO 
DISCUSS RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE REGION AND 
ARAB ARENA.  (ALTHOUGH A PHOTOGRAPH OF KLIBI 
WITH SADDAM MADE THE FRONT PAGES, THE MEDIA 
(AND THE GOI) DOWNPLAYED HIS VISIT.  HE WAS 
SEEN OFF AT THE AIRPORT BY A MERE MFA UNDER 
SECRETARY.  KLIBI PROVES NOT TO BE A 
MAHMUD RIAD, BUT THEN TUNISIA IS NOT EGYPT). 
 
- SADDAM "SUMMONING" (VICE THE USUAL IRAQI 
WORD "RECEIVING") THE AMERICAN AMBASSADOR, 
FEATURED IN ALL THE MEDIA. 
 
5.  SIGNIFICANTLY, THE IRAQI MEDIA HAVE DROPPED 
MENTION OF THE US/UAE JOINT EXERCISES.  THE 
ARMY'S DAILY "AL-QADISSIYAH" GIVES FRONT PAGE 
COVERAGE TO JORDANIAN PRESS REPORTS LAUDING 
SADDAM'S IDEA FOR ESTABLISHING AN ARAB FUND 
(WHICH IS POPULAR IN JORDAN, EGYPT AND YEMEN) 
AND CONDEMNING THE US NAVAL PRESENCE IN THE GULF. 
EDITORIALS AND COMMENTARIES RETURN TO EARLIER 
THEMES:  THE DANGER OF SOVIET JEWISH IMMIGRATION 
TO ISRAEL; THE NEED FOR ARAB UNITY; THE USG'S 
DESIRE FOR HEGEMONY IN THE GULF. 
 
IRAQ BLINKED 
 
6.  THAT SADDAM ACCEPTED MUBARAK'S MEDIATION 
AND AGREED TO A MEETING OF OFFICIALS IN JEDDAH 
REINFORCES OUR VIEW THAT THE CENTRAL ISSUE FOR 
IRAQ IS REVENUE, NOT THE BORDER.  EVEN BEFORE 
THE OPEC MEETING BEGAN, THE GOI'S SABER- 
RATTLING HAD BEEN A MAJOR FACTOR IN THE SHARP 
RISE IN OIL PRICES.  THEN AT ITS JULY 25 
SESSION, OPEC REPORTEDLY CAME TOWARD THE IRAQI 
POSITION, AGREEING TO A MINIMUM PRICE OF USD 
20 PER BARREL.  WE EXPECT THE GOI TO BE 
TOUGH DURING THE OPEC MEETING TODAY (JULY 26) 
AND TO STAND OUT FOR USD 25.  BUT HAVING RAISED 
KUWAITI APPREHENSIONS SO HIGH BY CRUDE TACTICS, 
THE GOI MAY HOLD OUT FOR OTHER CONCESSIONS; 
E.G., OPENING OF THE DIRECT AIR ROUTE TO 
KUWAIT. 
 
7.  IRAQ MIGHT ALSO PRESS FOR FORGIVENESS OF 
WAR DEBTS.  THE IRAQIS HAVE TOLD US THAT THE 
GOK (BUT NOT THE SAG) CARRY THESE DEBTS ON THE 
BOOKS THEY SHOW TO INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL 
ORGANIZATIONS.  IN FACT, WE HAVE FROM A 
WESTERN EMBASSY, TWO SEPARATE SENIOR SAUDI 
SOURCES SAYING KUWAIT RECENTLY TRIED TO 
COLLECT USD TWO BILLION FROM IRAQ, EVEN 
GIVING IRAQ A JULY 31 DEADLINE.  THIS SURPRISING 
STORY, SHOULD IT PROVE TRUE, WOULD SHED 
CONSIDERABLE LIGHT ON THE IRAQI CONCLUSION 
THAT KUWAIT IS NOT AS SYMPATHETIC TO IRAQI 
FINANCIAL STRAITS AS IT SHOULD BE. 
 
KUWAIT BLINKED, TOO 
 
8.  THE IRAQIS WILL CONCLUDE THAT THE KUWAITIS 
HAVE BLINKED TOO, SINCE ACCORDING TO BBC REPORTS 
TODAY, KUWAIT HAS AGREED NOT/NOT TO ASK FOR 
HIGHER PRODUCTION QUOTAS DURING THE LAST QUARTER 
OF 1990. 
 
EGYPTIAN MEDIATION CONTINUES 
 
9.  EGYPTIAN EMBASSY CONFIDED TO US JULY 26 
THAT MUBARAK'S ADVISOR USAMA AL-BAZ HAS 
ARRIVED IN BAGHDAD.  IRAQI MEDIA ANNOUNCED 
THAT HE MET WITH SADDAM JULY 26. 
 
DEEP ANTI-KUWAITI SENTIMENT 
 
10.  IT IS DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE THE DEPTH OF 
ANTI-KUWAITI SENTIMENT IN IRAQ.  THIS IS THE 
EXTREMELY IMPORTANT BACKDROP TO CURRENT 
TENSIONS.  THE DISLIKE IS OLD AND DEEP -- NOT 
SOMETHING TRUMPED UP BY THE MEDIA FOR THE 
OCCASION.  EVEN OUR MOST SOPHISTICATED IRAQI 
COLLEAGUES AND CONTACTS BECOME NEANDERTHAL ON 
THE ISSUE OF KUWAITIS. 
 
11.  THE KUWAITIS WHO COME TO IRAQ WITH POCKETS 
FULL OF IRAQI DINARS (PURCHASED AT THE BLACK 
MARKET RATE WHICH IS LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF THE 
OFFICIAL RATE) AND WHICH THEY OSTENTATIOUSLY 
SPEND, ARE NOT THE EDUCATED MIDDLE CLASSES -- 
THEY GO TO EUROPE.  IRAQ GETS THE EQUIVALENT OF 
"PO   WHITE TRASH", THE LOWER MIDDLE CLASSES, 
WHO CAN BE SEEN IN BASRA IN THEIR SCORES ON 
A FRIDAY, AND IN THE NORTHERN SUMMER RESORTS, 
OFTEN DRUNK, SOMETIMES DISORDERLY, AND OFTEN 
GAMBLING IN THE OTHERWISE EMPTY CASINOS.  THEY 
ALSO COME TO BAGHDAD IN DROVES, PROVIDING THE 
CLIENTELE FOR CHEAP NIGHTCLUBS AND CALL GIRLS. 
 
12.  IRAQIS DEEPLY FEEL THAT THE KUWAITIS ARE 
IMMENSELY STINGY SHYLOCKS, LIVING HIGH WHILE 
IRAQ, WHICH MADE SUCH TERRIBLE SACRIFICES 
DURING THE WAR, IT STILL SUFFERING.  INDEED, 
WHEN SADDAM MADE THAT POINT TO THE AMBASSADOR 
(BAGHDAD 4237), TWO OF HIS STAFFERS (WHO BOTH, 
WE CAN SAFELY ASSUME, LOST RELATIVES IN THE 
WAR) BURST INTO TEARS.  AND AS A MEASURE OF 
JUST HOW MUCH IRAQIS DISLIKE THE KUWAITIS, 
TWO OTHER IRAQIS ON THAT DAY VOLUNTEERED TO 
US THEIR DISLIKE.  ONE COMPLAINED HIS SISTER 
COULD NOT WALK ALONE IN CENTRAL BAGHDAD 
ANY MORE BECAUSE OF HARRASSMENT FROM KUWAITIS, 
WHILE A SUCCESSFUL IRAQI TRADER COMPLAINED 
BITTERLY ABOUT THE KUWAITI OBSESSION WITH 
MONEY. 
 
13.  IRAQI ATTITUDES TO KUWAITIS CONTRAST 
SHARPLY WITH THEIR ATTITUDE TO MOST OTHER ARABS. 
NO MATTER HOW BAD RELATIONS BECOME WITH, FOR 
EXAMPLE JORDAN, THERE IS ALWAYS A FELLOW 
FEELING TOWARDS EAST JORDANIANS, A FEELING 
ABSENT TOWARD KUWAITIS. 
 
ARENS' PROPAGANDA SUCCESSFUL 
 
14.  THE ISRAELI PRESS AND DEFMIN ARENS HAVE 
SUCCEEDED IN MAKING THE IRAQIS BELIEVE THAT 
ARENS WAS SUMMONED TO WASHINGTON TO DISCUSS 
THE GULF.  CERTAINLY SADDAM EXPRESSED THIS 
VIEW IN HIS JULY 25 MEETING WITH AMBASSADOR 
AND WE INVITE DEPARTMENT'S ATTENTION TO ARENS' 
TV INTERVIEW JULY 25 (FBIS TA2507201890) IN 
WHICH HE REFERS TO HIS CONVERSATION WITH 
DEFENSE SECRETARY CHENEY ON THE GULF. 
MILITARY ACTIVITY 
 
15.  JULY 26 IS THE FIRST DAY FOR A WEEK WHEN 
WE HAVE NOT/NOT SEEN RAILWAY CARS LOADED WITH 
MILITARY EQUIPMENT IN THE MARSHALLING YARDS 
IN MANSUR.  THIS COULD MEAN THAT ALL THE 
EQUIPMENT THE GOI FORCES ON THE BORDER NEED IS 
ALREADY IN PLACE, OR THAT NO NEW FORCES ARE 
BEING SENT SOUTH. 
 
GLASPIE 
UNQUOTE 
 
EAGLEBURGER