US embassy cable - 05BANGKOK4901

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 004901 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PTER, TH, Southern Thailand 
SUBJECT: SOUTHERN THAILAND VIOLENCE:  THAKSIN AND ANAND 
STATE THEIR CASES TO THE PUBLIC 
 
REF: BANGKOK 4864 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and 
National Reconciliation Commission (NRC) head and former 
Prime Minister Anand Panyarachun traded views on the 
Thailand's southern violence over national television on July 
28 evening.  They debated the root causes of the violence, 
the new emergency ordinance, and next steps to take on the 
present situation.  Thaksin defended his national emergency 
decree, stressing that its measures will be applied 
cautiously and with safeguards. Anand stated that many 
southern Thais regard the new ordinance with suspicion, and 
question whether adequate safeguards are indeed in place. 
Thaksin and Anand stated their respective cases forthrightly, 
although both took the high road in their discussion.  The 
unusual joint television appearance is likely to trigger 
further national debate on the government's approach to 
solving the southern crisis.  End Summary. 
 
ROOTS OF THE SOUTH'S AGONY 
 
2.  (U)  Thaksin declared that the perpetrators behind the 
southern violence are using the old issue of an independent 
Pattani and deliberate misinterpretation of Islamic 
principles to recruit people, particularly lower-educated, 
unemployed youths from the pondok schools.  He estimated the 
separatists' strength at about 10,000 -- not enough to defeat 
the government but plenty to create problems.  Thaksin said 
that "influential groups," both political and criminal, such 
as smugglers and drug traffickers, are also causes of the 
violence in the region.  The Prime Minister blamed Muslim 
religious schools for placing too much emphasis on religious 
studies and not enough on teaching marketable skills to 
Muslim youth.  He admitted though that the actions of some 
government officials in the region contributed to fear and 
mistrust among the population. 
 
3.  (U)  Anand faulted the lack of understanding on the part 
of government officials of the local populace's customs and 
sentiments.  There is considerable resentment against 
government officials for their unjust treatment of local 
Muslims and lack of respect for their culture, he charged. 
Anand added that most people in the south do not support the 
violent actions by the militants.  He noted that 76 percent 
of eligible voters in the southern region participated in the 
last election -- higher than other regions and the national 
average.  The separatist movement may exist, but is small, 
Anand said. 
 
THE NEW EMERGENCY ORDINANCE 
 
4. (U)  Thaksin explained that the new emergency ordinance is 
initially in place for 3 months, renewable with cabinet 
approval.  He noted that in accordance with the King's 
instruction, the ordinance's measures will be implemented 
cautiously and with respect to citizens' rights. 
 
5.  (U)  Anand said that the NRC,s major concerns with the 
ordinance include the state's broad power to arrest and 
detain persons or suspects, limitations on press freedom, and 
the exception from punishment and judiciary procedure for 
state officials enacting measures under the emergency 
ordinance.  Anand said that the ordinance is viewed as a 
potential "license to kill" for government officials.  He 
expressed concern that officials may not stay within the 
limits -- the state must pursue its security function with 
respect to the rules of law and human rights principles. 
Those targeted by the measures of the ordinance must be the 
actual instigators -- not innocent civilians, he warned. 
 
6.  (U)  The Prime Minister said that the purpose of the 
emergency ordinance is to integrate various provisions that 
already exist in various laws.  As for the NRC's concerns, 
Thaksin pointed out that court warrants will be needed in the 
arrests of suspects.  In the case of media restrictions, the 
relevant articles in the ordinance will not be used -- the 
government may just warn the media, but will not close them. 
However, Thaksin said, the government may prohibit the 
distribution of violent, distorted VCDs in the south, such as 
those showing beheadings in Iraq.  Regarding immunity for 
officials accused of wrongdoing in carrying out measures of 
the ordinance, Thaksin said that if they could not prove that 
they had acted in self-defense and without malice, they would 
not be immune from sanction. 
 
WHERE TO? 
 
7.  (U)  Thaksin said the government will focus on the 
development of education and economics, as well as increasing 
employment in the south.  He claimed that the government is 
currently seeking some 200 separatist suspects in the region. 
 He maintained that the current southern problem is 
Thailand's domestic issue, not a religious conflict -- and 
that there is still no sign of foreign involvement. (Note: 
Anand concurred with the PM on this point.)  Thaksin urged 
more public cooperation with the security forces and insisted 
that the rule of law and human rights will be observed during 
the implementation of the emergency ordinance. 
 
8.  (U)  Anand responded that the NRC is not the government's 
enemy, but at the same time it will not be a mouthpiece for 
the government, either. The NRC and the government will work 
in parallel, Anand said. The NRC will continue its work, but 
expects no more "surprises" from the government, as was the 
case with the emergency ordinance.  He said that Thaksin must 
explain his administration's security measures to the 
international community and the UN.  He cautioned again that 
violent practices by the security services must not be 
employed to solve the southern problem. 
9.  (SBU)  Comment:  The televised discussion between Thaksin 
and Anand did not cause any pyrotechnics as some observers 
had predicted.  Rather, both presented their cases matter of 
faculty -- Thaksin's emphasizing that his new emergency 
ordinance would not be applied arbitrarily, and Anand 
stressing that the government must take measures to address 
deeply rooted mistrust and resentment among southern Thai 
Muslims.  Thaksin probably helped his administration's cause 
by affirming that citizens' rights will be implemented as the 
provisions of the emergency decree are carried out.  He also 
won some points by not losing his cool.  But it is unlikely 
that Thaksin's many critics found his assurances convincing. 
End Comment. 
BOYCE