US embassy cable - 05MANILA3477

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 003477 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/PMBS, INR/EAP, DRL/CRA, DS, USIP - SOLOMON 
USAID FOR CDOWNEY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/29/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, EAID, PREL, ASEC, RP 
SUBJECT: ELECTION CAMPAIGN IN MUSLIM AUTONOMOUS REGION IN 
MINDANAO HEATS UP 
 
REF: A. MANILA 3116 
 
     B. MANILA 2442 
     C. MANILA 2332 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Timothy Cipullo for 
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  The election campaign in the Autonomous 
Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) is heating up.  The 
governor's race appears to have come down to a showdown 
between Zaldy Ampatuan and Ibrahim "Toto" Paglas, two 
well-known regional figures.  Ampatuan, who is running as the 
candidate of Lakas, President Arroyo's party, is favored to 
win.  Several organizations have expressed concern about 
fraud and have called for the elections to be postponed. 
Mission's observation effort is moving forward.  The Charge 
is planning to visit Marawi, a key regional city, on August 
3, while five Mission teams are slated to be in the region on 
August 8, election day.  Mission continues to emphasize how 
important it is that the elections be free and fair.  End 
Summary. 
 
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ARMM Race Heats Up 
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2.  (SBU) Candidates are ratcheting up their campaigns in the 
closing days before the ARMM elections scheduled to take 
place on August 8.  At stake are the offices of ARMM 
governor, vice governor, and all 24 seats in the ARMM 
Regional Legislative Assembly.  The gubernatorial race is now 
down to two serious contenders, following the announcement on 
July 26 by opposition candidate Guimid Matalam that he was 
joining President Arroyo's Lakas-CMD Party and dropping out 
of the race.  Matalam went on to endorse Lakas' favored 
candidate, Zaldy Ampatuan.  With Matalam's withdrawal, the 
campaign becomes a showdown between Ampatuan, the mayor of 
Shariff Aguak, and Ibrahim "Toto" Paglas, a well-known 
businessman.  Several other candidates are running as 
independents, though observers believe none of them has the 
backing to make a serious run at the governorship. 
 
3.  (C) In a July 28 meeting, Lito Banayo, a political 
assistant to Opposition Senator Panfilo Lacson, told Acting 
Pol/C that the Opposition was very upset at Matalam's 
decision "to defect."  The race now has no candidate directly 
linked with the Opposition, he claimed, "which was 
unfortunate for Philippine democracy."  He accused the 
government of "buying off" Matalam. 
 
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Calls for Postponement Grow 
--------------------------- 
 
4.  (SBU) Several organizations have expressed concern about 
fraud and have called for the elections to be postponed.  On 
July 28, for example, the National Movement for Free 
Elections (NAMFREL), an election watchdog group, urged 
Congress and the GRP's Commission on Elections (COMELEC) to 
postpone the elections, citing concerns over fraud and the 
need to ensure "that the necessary safeguards for the conduct 
of clean elections are in place."  NAMFREL officials recently 
met with members of the ARMM Business Council, which has also 
called for a postponement of the election due to concerns 
over allegations of "vote padding" in the region.  Calls for 
postponement of the ARMM elections have been growing since a 
group of ARMM politicians, led by current Governor Parouk 
Hussin, filed a petition urging the Supreme Court to issue a 
Temporary Restraining Order (TRO) that would delay the 
holding of the elections.  The petition, which was filed in 
early July, claimed that the elections were not being carried 
out in accordance with the Constitution.  (Note:  Contacts at 
the Supreme Court informed poloff that the Court plans to 
issue a ruling on the request for the TRO soon.  End Note.) 
 
5.  (SBU) COMELEC chairman Benjamin Abalos, however, has 
continued to publicly maintain that his organization will be 
able to hold credible elections and he has insisted that the 
elections will proceed on schedule.  Other Mission contacts 
have also asserted that it is now too late to postpone the 
elections and have predicted that they will take place as 
scheduled on August 8. 
 
-------------------------- 
Mission Observation Effort 
-------------------------- 
 
6. (SBU) Mission's election observation effort is moving 
forward.  Mission has already sent pre-election teams to 
Marawi, Basilan, and Sultan Kudarat municipality (outside 
Cotabato City) to gauge local opinion and preparations for 
the August 8 polls.  Charge will visit Marawi City, a 
particularly important Muslim-dominated area, on August 3 to 
speak with local voters and government officials.  He will 
also meet with Brigadier General Benjamin Dolorfino, the 
Philippine military officer responsible for security in the 
region for the period of the elections.  During the polling 
and follow-on counting of the hand-written ballots on August 
8th and 9th, Mission plans to dispatch five teams to the 
following four sites:  Basilan, Marawi, Cotabato City (two 
teams), and Sultan Kudarat.  The International Federation for 
Election Systems (IFES), working through USAID, will also 
field election observers focused on the island provinces of 
Basilan, Jolo, and Tawi Tawi.  We are also coordinating our 
observation efforts with those of the embassies of Australia, 
Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and the UK.  Mission continues to 
work very closely with local police regarding security for 
the observation effort. 
 
7.  (C) So far, conversations with a wide spectrum of voters 
during pre-election visits has revealed a general mood of 
pessimism about the potential for vote buying and violence. 
Many ARMM residents also expressed apathy, asserting that 
Ampatuan's reputed close links with Malacanang made the 
election results a foregone conclusion.  (Note: 
Historically, candidates that were linked with the 
President's party have won the governorship by a landslide in 
every ARMM election, amid widespread charges of vote rigging. 
 End Note.)  Another factor contributing to voter apathy is 
the perception that neither Ampatuan nor Paglas (who are 
ethnic Maguindinaoans) will adequately represent the 
interests of other ethnic groups in the ARMM.  Nonetheless, 
based on the observer visits, election officials continue to 
make preparations at voting precincts and counting centers. 
The local military commander in Basilan, Brigadier General 
Reymundo Ferrer, told PA officer that he expects election day 
to be "quiet." 
 
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Comment 
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8.  (C) There had been significant hope that the ARMM 
elections could serve as a model for the Philippines given 
its poor track record in past elections, including those in 
May 2004.  As noted, however, worries over fraud and violence 
have led to reduced expectations.  Nonetheless, Mission, at 
every opportunity, continues to emphasize how important it is 
that the elections be free and fair.  Meanwhile, our 
on-the-ground observation efforts are helping underscore the 
point that the international community is closely watching 
the situation.  These efforts, hopefully, will help create a 
more favorable environment come August 8. 
 
Visit Embassy Manila's Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm 
 
You can also access this site through the State Department's 
Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/ 
 
MUSSOMELI