US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN1352

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 001352 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, DRL 
NSC FOR DAVID MERKEL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/28/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, AM 
SUBJECT: ARMENIA:  A STEP FORWARD ON CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM: 
WHAT'S NEXT? 
 
REF: A) YEREVAN 1290 B) STATE 139271 
 
Classified By: CDA A.F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b, d). 
 
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SUMMARY AND ACTION REQUEST 
-------------------------- 
 
1. (C) On July 21, the Council of Europe's Venice Commission 
issued a generally positive assessment of the GOAM's revised 
draft constitutional amendments.  While this brings Armenia 
an important step closer to a November referendum, much 
remains to be done.  The Venice Commission hailed proposals 
for new safeguards for human rights, new limits on the power 
of the presidency and steps toward increasing the 
independence of the judiciary.  Legislative debate on these 
draft amendments, the next hurdle in the process, begins 
about a week before the National Assembly convenes in 
extraordinary session for a second reading of the draft on 
August 29.  The rules which govern the legislative review 
process do not guarantee that the National Assembly will 
adopt the same revisions the Venice Commission approved.  The 
entire reform process is not transparent, and public interest 
-- which we are trying to influence -- is still weak.  We 
seek Department concurrence to release a press statement 
(para 8) that stresses our support for a transparent process 
as well as encourages opposition and public participation 
while preserving the intent of the revisions.  End Summary 
and Action Request. 
 
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NEW DRAFT CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS 
----------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) While the amendments as currently drafted are far from 
perfect, they represent a significant improvement over 
previous drafts.  Specific changes include: 
 
- The President may no longer dismiss the Prime Minister 
without a vote of no-confidence by the parliament; 
- While the President still nominates the Prime Minister, his 
candidate must be supported by a majority in the parliament; 
- Half of the members of the National Commission on Radio and 
TV will be appointed by the parliament; 
- the independence of the Judicial Council is increased, 
lessening the direct influence of the President on 
appointments and dismissals of judges; 
- the Mayor of Yerevan (where a third of all Armenian 
citizens reside) will become an elected position (although 
this election may be indirect). 
 
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VENICE COMMISSION THUMBS UP 
--------------------------- 
 
3. (C) The July 21 comments of the Venice Commission were 
made public in Yerevan on July 25.  The conclusions of the 
Commission remain in draft until confirmed by the 
rapporteurs, but the local Council of Europe representative 
said that they expect no changes.  The key conclusion of the 
Commission was that the amendments "represent an undoubted 
improvement as compared to earlier drafts ... their adoption 
in the second reading and subsequently a successful 
constitutional referendum on the basis of this text would 
constitute a good basis for ensuring the compliance of the 
Armenian Constitution with the European standards ..."  The 
commission called for an open and transparent discussion with 
the opposition and civil society in order that "the broadest 
political consensus be found." 
 
4. (C) In a July 26 meeting with the CDA, Council of Europe 
(CoE) Special Representative in Armenia Bojana Urumova said 
that Venice Commission members were "quite pleased" with the 
GOAM revisions, noting that the coalition drafters, led by 
Justice Minister David Harutyunyan and prominent opposition 
figure and constitutional lawyer Vartan Pogosyan, had 
incorporated virtually all of the Venice Commission 
recommendations into the revised amendments.  Urumova said 
that the next challenge -- National Assembly approval of the 
draft without significant changes -- will again test the 
government's commitment to reform.  The National Assembly 
will meet on August 29 for the second reading of the draft 
constitutional amendments.  Barring extraordinary 
circumstances, this will be the final opportunity for 
legislators to incorporate the recommended revisions. 
 
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SOME IN OPPOSITION MAY BE CREEPING TOWARD DISCUSSIONS 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
5. (C) Press reports of diverging opinions among Armenia's 
main opposition parties about the amendment process track our 
private conversations with government and opposition leaders. 
 Minister of Justice David Harutyunyan told the CDA that he 
believed "it's not too late to engage some members of the 
opposition."  Republic Party leader Aram Sargsyan said, 
however, that his party "has not and will not participate in 
any discussion of any version of the amendments."  Opposition 
National Unity Party leader Artashes Geghamyan, who said his 
party's position would depend on the Venice Commission 
opinion, has not announced a decision on participating in 
discussions.  Justice Party leader Shavarsh Kocharyan told us 
his party will wait to see how the revisions play out in 
National Assembly committee meetings before the second 
reading.  Kocharyan has backed away from public threats to 
keep his party out of the reform debate.  According to Vartan 
Pogosyan, Kocharyan has started work on draft Justice Party 
recommendations he intends to submit when the National 
Assembly meets in late August. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
THE ROAD AHEAD: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY, REFERENDUM 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) Opposition lawyer and constitutional law expert Vartan 
Pogosyan told us that, because the National Assembly is in 
recess, he believed the chairman of the ad hoc European 
Integration Commission Tigran Torosyan would be unable to 
gather commission members before August 22.  The ad hoc 
commission, which includes Justice Minister David Harutyunyan 
and opposition Justice Party leader Shavarsh Kocharyan, 
oversees the National Assembly's constitutional amendment 
process and will have about a week to debate and amend the 
current draft before presenting recommendations to the full 
assembly on August 29.  Council of Europe (CoE) Special 
Representative Bojana Urumova told us that Venice Commission 
Secretary Gianni Buquicchio planned to attend the National 
 
SIPDIS 
Assembly sessions.  Buquicchio's presence, she hoped, would 
deter legislators from exploiting the amendment process to 
derail the upcoming referendum. 
 
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COMMENT: PROCESS JUST BEGINNING, MANY OPPORTUNITIES TO FAIL 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
7. (C) In addition to limited public support for a referendum 
and unrealistically high voter participation thresholds 
(reftels), the GOAM faces the immediate challenges of getting 
a "clean" bill through the National Assembly that can also 
pass a referendum.  Despite the challenges, we believe strong 
USG support for a transparent process that preserves the 
intent of the Venice Commission revisions will aid efforts to 
bring the amendments to referendum.  We appreciate the 
statement made at the July 22 Permanent Council Meeting in 
Vienna (ref B) toward this end.  We also believe that public 
opinion will play a vital role in the ultimate success or 
failure of the constitutional reforms.  We therefore propose 
the following draft press statement. 
 
----------------------------- 
DRAFT EMBASSY PRESS STATEMENT 
----------------------------- 
 
8. (U) Begin text of draft Embassy statement: 
 
The United States welcomes the agreement by the Venice 
Commission of the Council of Europe to the amendments to the 
constitution and looks forward to their adoption at the 
November national referendum. 
 
We continue to support the efforts of the Venice Commission 
and share the view that the revised draft constitutional 
amendments represent a step forward.  We applaud the 
Government's progress toward democratic and constitutional 
reforms. 
 
The process, however, is far from over. 
 
We hope that the Government takes the appropriate steps to 
open the discussion to the public and gain the consensus 
necessary to ultimately pass a referendum. 
 
When the National Assembly meets in August, we hope 
legislators will take seriously the Council of Europe's 
recommendations, and that government and opposition parties 
will engage in constructive debate to successfully bring 
meaningful constitutional reforms to a referendum in 
November. 
 
End text of proposed Embassy statement. 
GODFREY