US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI3179

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003179 
 
SIPDIS 
 
WASHINGTON PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/28/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, TW 
SUBJECT: WANG JIN-PYNG CUTS OFF FROM NEW KMT CHAIR MA 
YING-JEOU, FOCUSES ON 2008 PRESIDENTIAL RACE 
 
REF: TAIPEI 3058 
 
Classified By:  AIT Director Douglas H. Paal, Reason 1.4 b 
 
1.  (C) Summary.  Following his crushing defeat by Taipei 
Mayor Ma Ying-jeou in the July 16 KMT Chair election, 
embittered Legislative Yuan (LY) Speaker Wang Jin-pyng has 
cut contact and cooperation with Ma.  Wang, however, still 
holds out hope that he can win the KMT 2008 presidential 
nomination.  His strategy to effect this is to force party 
"outsider" Ma to run the party and organize the party's 
year-end local elections on his own, while Wang concentrates 
on running the LY and pursing a "southern strategy" to shore 
up his base in southern Taiwan.  If (when, in Wang's 
expectation) Ma founders, Wang will be there to pick up the 
pieces, inheriting both party leadership and presidential 
nomination.  End Summary. 
 
Not Over Till It's Over 
----------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Chiang Min-chin, campaign manager and spokesperson 
for Wang Jin-pyng's KMT Chair campaign, acknowledged that 
Wang and his close supporters were shocked by the extent of 
Wang's election loss (28 percent to Ma's 72 percent, see 
reftel).  Chiang told AIT that Wang nevertheless believes he 
still has a chance to achieve, by circuitous route, the 
party's 2008 presidential nomination.  To this end, Chiang 
meets almost daily to devise a strategy for winning the 2008 
KMT presidential nomination.  This may be a long shot, Chiang 
acknowledged, but he is convinced it has a chance.  Chiang, 
who studied political science at SUNY/Albany (Ph.D.), said 
that he modeled the plan that he proposed to Wang and Wang 
accepted, on President Nixon's experience -- 1960 
presidential loss, 1962 California gubernatorial defeat, 1968 
presidency. 
 
3.  (C) Under this plan to "reproduce Nixon", Wang will cut 
off completely from Ma and let Ma run the party and the Dec. 
3 local elections on his own.  (Chiang called this 
"sabotaging" Ma, apparently through non-cooperation.)  Given 
that Ma has already publicly pledged that the KMT under his 
leadership will win a majority of the 23 county magistrate 
and city mayoral positions at stake in that election, failure 
to meet this goal could be viewed as a major set back for Ma 
and compromise his leadership of the party and his 
presidential prospects.  Meanwhile, Wang will focus his 
attention on running the Ly and reestablishing his support 
base in southern Taiwan.  The objective of this strategy is 
to let Ma, the party "outsider" with few close advisors, 
self-destruct, leaving Wang to inherit both party leadership 
and the KMT nomination in 2008.  This strategy, Chiang 
explained, will also entail extensive public relations work, 
Chiang said, to alter Wang,s image as a corrupt party 
insider.  When AIT pressed Chiang on what Wang would do if 
this strategy failed to win the 2008 KMT presidential 
nomination, Chiang said simply that Wang was practical 
(wushi) and would accept the vice presidential nomination and 
run with Ma as presidential candidate. 
 
Familiar Strategy 
----------------- 
 
4.  (C) The Wang strategy described by Prof. Chiang is 
similar to one that he worked out for another political 
leader whom he advises -- Vice President Annette Lu 
(Hsiu-lien).  Chiang told AIT in February that, in the face 
of strong competition from the dynamic and charismatic 
Premier Frank Hsieh and DPP Chair Su Tseng-chang, VP Lu had 
decided to lay low and bide her time in hopes that the "two 
kings" would (politically) kill each other off.  Chiang noted 
to AIT the signs of growing tension and competition between 
Hsieh and Su in recent weeks.  (Note:  On July 25, VP Lu 
publicly stated that she will not take questions on running 
for the presidency.) 
 
Comment:  Last Man Standing 
--------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) The plan Prof. Chiang designed for Speaker Wang to 
attain the 2008 KMT presidential nomination is a long shot at 
best and entirely dependent on Ma stumbling.  The wild card 
in Wang's plan may be the current Chair, Lien Chan, and 
whether Lien pressures Wang to work with Ma for the sake of 
the party.  DPP leaders are much more respectful of -- and 
worried about -- Mayor Ma's potential as KMT Chair than are 
Wang and Chiang.  A China Times public opinion poll last 
week, moreover, shows Ma leading Su and Hsieh 47-19 and 44-20 
percent, respectively.  Presidential Office Deputy Secretary 
General James Huang told the Deputy Director on July 27 that 
he fully expects Ma to establish full control over the party 
in the near future and to employ the same kind of unorthodox 
"outsider" campaign strategy for the presidency that he did 
for the KMT Chair.  While a Ma presidential candidate would 
almost certainly opt for a local Taiwanese (bendiren) as his 
Vice Presidential candidate, Huang rejected Wang as a 
possibility. 
PAAL