US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV4694

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 004694 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/27/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KWBG, EG, IS, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, GOI INTERNAL, GOI EXTERNAL 
SUBJECT: GAZA DISENGAGEMENT: FINAL VOTES STILL TO COME ON 
PHASED PULLOUT, EGYPTIAN BORDER GUARD DEPLOYMENT 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: Prime Minister Sharon still faces two GOI 
votes related to his disengagement plan.  The first, a 
Cabinet vote authorizing the evacuation of settlers, must 
take place before disengagement implementation begins on 
August 17.  Still to be determined is whether the Cabinet 
will stick to an earlier decision to hold separate votes 
before the start of each of the four phases of disengagement, 
or whether it will approve in advance execution of the entire 
plan in one &continuous phase.8   Sharon has also decided 
to submit to the Knesset the prospective Israeli-Egyptian 
agreement to deploy 750 Egyptian border guards along the 
Egypt-Gaza border.  Sharon has the support to win each of 
these votes handily, although the Knesset debate on the 
Egyptian deployment will likely prove contentious.  The 
Cabinet is also likely in the coming week to consider issues 
related to post-disengagement Gaza.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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Disengagement Phases Could be Canceled 
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2.  (C) Poloff learned from Cabinet Secretary Israel Maimon's 
office July 27 that a date has not yet been set for the 
historic cabinet vote on implementing disengagement. 
Maimon,s office did not know when it would be scheduled. 
 
3.  (C) The Cabinet decided last year to require cabinet 
approval before the start of each of four phases of 
disengagement (corresponding to four different groups of 
settlements to be evacuated).  Should Sharon decide to seek 
cabinet approval for carrying out the entire disengagement 
plan in one &continuous phase," he can count on the support 
of at least 16 of the 22 government ministers.  Sharon, Vice 
Premier Peres, Deputy Prime Minister Olmert, and Defense 
Minister Mofaz have each advocated carrying out disengagement 
as quickly as possible, presaging the likelihood that Sharon 
will propose to the Cabinet that disengagement take place 
continuously.  Finance Minister Netanyahu, who would 
presumably support separate votes for each phase, 
acknowledged on Israeli radio July 25 that Sharon enjoys 
majority support in the Cabinet to cancel the four-stage 
approach to disengagement and to execute the plan 
continuously.  Along with Netanyahu, Likud ministers Yisrael 
Katz, Limor Livnat, Dani Naveh and perhaps Silvan Shalom and 
Tzipi Livni may vote against canceling phased implementation. 
 In deciding whether to seek approval of carrying out 
disengagement in one continuous phase, Sharon will have to 
balance the advantages of expediting disengagement against 
possible further erosion of his position among members of the 
Likud Central Committee. 
 
4.  (C) The Cabinet is also likely to consider other issues 
related to post-disengagement Gaza in the coming week or two. 
 Aharon Lishansky in the Office of the Cabinet Secretary told 
Poloff July 27 that there is as yet no set agenda for the 
scheduled cabinet meeting for July 31. 
 
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Knesset Vote on Agreement with Egypt 
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5.  (C) Although Attorney General Menachem Mazuz advised the 
GOI that the prospective Israeli-Egyptian agreement on the 
deployment of Egyptian border guards was not a material 
change to the 1973 Israel-Egypt Peace Treaty, and therefore 
did not need Knesset approval, Sharon decided to submit the 
agreement for a Knesset vote in order to head off a Knesset 
challenge to the Mazuz ruling, most likely spearheaded by MK 
Yuval Steinetz, the head of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and 
Defense Committee.  Since the Knesset goes into recess for 
three months starting July 27, Sharon will probably have to 
request a special session of the Knesset to consider the 
still unfinalized agreement.  Sharon's Foreign Policy 
Advisor, Shalom Tourgeman, told Poloff July 21 that the 
Israeli-Egyptian negotiating team should finish the agreement 
within one, or at most two, weeks.  An advisor to Steinitz, 
David Sharan, told Poloff July 27 that he expects the 
agreement to be ready for Knesset consideration "next week." 
 
6.  (C) Steinitz has been firmly opposed to the proposed 
agreement, arguing that Egypt does not have the ability or 
willingness to protect the border from weapons smuggling and 
his Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee may be divided on 
the agreement.  The agreement, however, is likely to receive 
a majority in a plenary vote, with the support of 21 Labor 
MKs, some 14 Shinui MKs, eight MKs from Arab parties, six 
Yahad MKs, and at least 12 of the 40 Likud MKs.  Tourgeman 
told Poloff July 21 that he was confident that the agreement 
would be approved by a Knesset majority along the same lines 
as the majority that has supported disengagement in Knesset 
votes.  Senior Advisor to Sharon Dov Weissglas, however, 
indicated to Poloff July 21 that he was not so confident that 
the agreement would pass easily in the Knesset. 
 
 
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KURTZER