US embassy cable - 05GABORONE1040

UNCLAS  GABORONE 001040 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR MUNCY 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, BC, Political Parties 
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION PARTIES INCH TOWARD COOPERATION 
 
Ref:  Gaborone 1038 
 
1.  SUMMARY:  Botswana's two largest opposition parties, the 
Botswana National Front (BNF) and the Botswana Congress Party 
(BCP), intend to cooperate to oust the ruling Botswana 
Democratic Party (BDP) in the next election.  Although they 
pledged to pursue this strategy at their national congresses 
July 16-19, the acrimonious split which produced the BCP as an 
offshoot of the BNF in 1998 has left a significant trust- 
deficit between the two parties.  While these personal 
differences will slow the process of agreeing to a specific 
plan, the BDP's falling share of the popular vote has created 
a definite sentiment in favor of cooperation among supporters 
of the opposition.  This approach, coupled with factionalism 
within the BDP (reftel), could lead the opposition to its best 
showing yet in the 2009 election.  END SUMMARY. 
 
BNF HANGS HOPES ON OPPOSITION COOPERATION 
 
2.  Addressing the BNF biennial national congress, party 
President "Comrade" Otsweletse Moupo said that BNF's success 
in the next election hinged on effective opposition 
cooperation.  Moupo called on the assembled delegates to 
deliberate carefully on which manner of collaboration - a 
pact, a new umbrella body - would best serve the party's 
interests.  He argued that a well-crafted plan of cooperation 
could capitalize on the infighting in the BDP by presenting 
the opposition, in contrast to the BDP, as organized, 
disciplined and fit to govern. 
 
3.  The BNF's zeal for cooperation notwithstanding, its own 
fractious history and poor relationship with the BCP will 
complicate these efforts.  As Moupo acknowledged, the BNF has 
suffered from internal disruptions based, he said, on self- 
aggrandizement.  Moupo and other BNF leaders, such as Gaborone 
Mayor Nelson Ramaotwana, indicated to PolOff that the party 
leadership had taken steps to eliminate these divisions and 
was confident of overcoming them.  Moupo and his comrades will 
find it more challenging to settle differences with the BCP, 
particularly with its newly elected President Gilson 
Saleshando.  Although Saleshando had once warned Moupo that it 
would take "twenty years" before the BCP and BNF could 
cooperate, Moupo told PolOff that he was still hopeful that 
the two parties would reach a viable understanding. 
 
REVOLUTIONARY RHETORIC, EVOLUTIONARY POLICIES 
 
4.  Although Moupo's remarks at the BNF congress were 
characterized by Marxist rhetoric, the BNF is unlikely to 
match its words with actions were it to take power.  He 
praised the Venezuelan and Cuban revolutions and denounced the 
conditions attached to the G-8 debt forgiveness plan as a 
mechanism by which capitalist powers plunder the resources of 
developing countries.  For all this ideological bluster, 
however, Moupo advocated less than revolutionary policies.  A 
BNF government, he said, would do more to diversify Botswana's 
economy, increase investment in public housing, and replace 
the House of Chiefs with a body to represent various entities 
in civil society including ethnic groups, trade unions, 
women's organizations, and youth movements.  Since the 
departure of former party President Kenneth Koma, a staunch 
Marxist, the BNF has slowly been moving toward more pragmatic 
policies. 
 
BNF SLAMS ZANU(PF) 
 
5.  Interestingly, Moupo also criticized Zimbabwe's ZANU-PF as 
an example of an erstwhile progressive regime that had 
abandoned its agenda for "brutal repression and dictatorship". 
Citing the recent demolition of shops and homes of the urban 
poor in Zimbabwe, Moupo declared that the BNF could not remain 
silent just because these "hideous atrocities" were committed 
by a supposedly revolutionary movement.  Following his speech, 
PolOff pursued this theme with Moupo.  Having heard that some 
younger Members of Parliament from both the ruling and 
opposition parties planned to raise this issue, PolOff 
impressed upon Moupo that now is the time to speak out. 
 
BCP ENDORSES OPPOSITION COOPERATION 
 
6.  At its own biennial congress earlier this month, the BCP 
resolved to unite with other opposition parties in the runup 
to the 2009 general election.  The loss of ten parliamentary 
seats to the BDP due to vote splitting between the BNF and BCP 
galvanized consensus on the need for coordinated campaigns. 
It mandated the BCP Central Committee to negotiate with other 
opposition parties a viable form of cooperation by the end of 
2006.  Members of the BCP rejected, however, the notion of 
dissolving the existing parties into a new, larger body. 
 
BCP ELECTS FIESTY NEW PRESIDENT 
 
7.  In a signal to the BNF that it cannot expect to dictate 
terms to the smaller BCP, the latter revamped its Central 
Committee by electing a new President, Gilson Saleshando, and 
Secretary General, Taolo Lucas.  Both had lobbied against 
 
SIPDIS 
cooperation with the BNF but conceded defeat after a majority 
at the congress voted in favor of that strategy.  In contrast 
to his unassuming predecessor, Saleshando is an outspoken and 
charismatic politician.  Although he had spurned the BNF's 
calls for unity, likening them to "Satan inviting Christians 
to revise the Bible," BCP Chairman Batisani Maswabilili told 
Political Assistant that he was confident that Saleshando 
would adhere to the evident will of the party. 
 
PRIVATE SECTOR ENDORSEMENT FOR OPPOSITION 
 
8.  Interestingly, the former Permanent Secretary for Foreign 
Affairs turned businessman Samuel Mpuchane delivered the 
opening address at the BCP congress.  He urged the BCP to work 
with other opposition parties to defeat the BDP. Since no 
ideological differences divided the opposition parties, he 
argued, only the will to cooperate is needed to successfully 
challenge the BDP.  His presence also suggested that the 
opposition parties enjoy some support in the private sector, 
their leftist slogans notwithstanding. 
 
COMMENT 
 
9.  Botswana's opposition parties have been struggling to 
unite their energies against the ruling BDP for years.  The 
primary obstacle has been the ambition of individual activists 
for positions of influence either in a party or as a candidate 
for public office.  That obstacle will endure in the runup to 
the 2009 elections.  The BDP's shrinking popular support, 
however, appears to have brought closer the possibility of 
change and with it a new commitment to cooperation as a means 
to realize that change.  Recent agreements between the BNF and 
BCP not to compete in parliamentary and council by-elections 
where one party had a clear advantage over the other testify 
to this commitment. 
 
10.  Despite the revolutionary rhetoric of the BNF, the 
opposition parties likely would not institute sweeping 
economic reforms that would reverse Botswana's record of 
growth and development.  Most opposition supporters are simply 
frustrated with unequal distribution of the benefits of 
growth, for which they blame the BDP.  The BNF's radical 
vocabulary is meant to excite and mobilize that 
dissatisfaction.  Although most opposition politicians oppose 
privatization of public utilities, they have not called for 
restrictions on trade or nationalization of private 
industries.  Opposition parties certainly bring a more 
populist perspective to governance but are unlikely to 
fundamentally alter Botswana's largely liberal economy. 
AROIAN 
 
 
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