US embassy cable - 02KATHMANDU1811

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 001811 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
LONDON FOR POL - RIEDEL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/16/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, NP, Government of Nepal (GON) 
SUBJECT: NEPAL'S ELECTION COMMISSION RULES AGAINST PRIME 
MINISTER'S FACTION 
 
REF: KATHMANDU 1515 
 
Classified By: AMB. MALINOWSKI.  REASON:  1.5 (B,D). 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  On September 17 the Election Commission 
(EC) handed down what it described as a provisional decision 
that the faction of the Nepali Congress Party led by former 
Prime Minister and Nepali Congress Party President Girija 
Prasad Koirala has the right to use the party name, symbol 
and flag during upcoming national elections November 13.  The 
rival faction, led by current Prime Minister Sher Bahadur 
Deuba, will likely take the EC decision to the Supreme Court 
and attempt to "freeze" use of the party symbol by the 
Koirala faction during the elections.  End summary. 
 
2.  (U) On September 17 the three-member Election Commission 
(EC) handed down its long-awaited decision on the legitimacy 
of rival Nepali Congress Party factions.  The question has 
been pending since the Central Working Committee of the 
Nepali Congress, headed by Party President and former Prime 
Minister Girija Prasad Koirala, expelled current Prime 
Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba from the party in May.  The 
decision determines which faction may use the party name, 
flag--and most important in a country with about a sixty 
percent literacy rate--symbol during upcoming general 
elections scheduled for November 13. 
 
3.  (U)  In an official statement, the EC said that after 
reviewing the cases presented by both factions, it "was still 
not satisfied" fully about the legitimacy of the competing 
claims.  In fact, the statement continued, both factions 
claim an "almost equal number" of General Convention 
members--the criterion by which party leadership is 
determined.  Without enough time before imminent elections to 
consider more fully the competing claims, however, the EC 
statement said its members decided "for the time being" that 
the Koirala faction, which registered with the EC before the 
deadline, "is granted recognition" explicitly "for the 
purpose of the forthcoming general elections."  The Deuba 
faction, the decision continues, should thus apply to the EC 
for a separate symbol and party name within seven days if it 
plans to contest elections. 
 
4.  (SBU) A Deuba confidant told us the faction is consulting 
lawyers on next steps.  He indicated that the PM may appeal 
the EC decision to the Supreme Court and ask the Court to 
"freeze" use of the party symbol during elections. 
 
5.  (C)  In a September 12 meeting, King Gyanendra hinted to 
the Ambassador that the EC decision would go Koirala's way. 
A few days later, Major General Rukmangud Katuwal of the 
National Security Council told the Ambassador that the Chief 
Election Commissioner would back Deuba and that one of the 
other Commissioners, a long-time Koirala supporter, would 
back the former Prime Minister.  The deciding vote would be 
cast for Koirala by the third Commissioner under the 
influence of three-time former PM Lokendra Bahadur Chand, who 
now heads the National Democratic Party and who harbors a 
long-standing animosity toward Deuba.  The third 
Commissioner, according to Katuwal, has a "mitr" relationship 
with Chand.  (Note:  A "mitr" relationship is analogous to 
the "blood brother" relationship among some groups of native 
Americans, involving resultant obligations and favors.  End 
note.) 
 
6.  (C)  Comment:  Without the well-known Nepali Congress 
Party symbol, Deuba and company will face a tough electoral 
challenge.  The EC decision appears to leave the PM with two 
alternatives:  to attempt a reconciliation with long-time 
rival Koirala or to challenge the ruling in the Supreme 
Court.  It appears for now that Deuba seems to opting for the 
latter.  We expect the loss of the symbol may prompt a 
certain amount of defection from the Deuba ranks over to 
Koirala. 
MALINOWSKI