US embassy cable - 05GABORONE1039

UNCLAS  GABORONE 001039 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
AF/S FOR MUNCY 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, BC, Political Parties 
SUBJECT: RULING PARTY STILL MIRED IN FACTIONAL FIGHTING 
 
REFERENCE: (A) 04 GABORONE 1816 (B) 04 GABORONE 1873 (C) 
GABORONE 667 
 
1. (SBU)  Summary:   The ruling Botswana Democratic Party 
(BDP) went to its bi-annual national congress internally 
divided and emerged from the event equally, if not further, 
mired in factional fights over personalities and positions 
of influence.  Vice President Khama's supposedly neutral 
efforts to broker an agreement between two rival groups 
within the BDP, one of which he consistently favored, failed 
and left him deeply distrusted by the other camp.  Daniel 
Kwelagobe, from the other camp, retained his seat as 
Secretary General, bringing a new lease on political life to 
 
SIPDIS 
organize his followers vis-a-vis the Nkate/Merafhe faction, 
which won every other elected seat to the Central Committee. 
While an outright split within the BDP seems unlikely before 
the 2009 election, continued fighting is likely to depress 
turnout of erstwhile BDP supporters, potentially helping the 
opposition to seize some marginal parliamentary seats.  End 
Summary. 
 
BDP DEEPLY DIVIDED 
 
2. (U)  The BDP went to its July 16-19 bi-annual congress 
divided along factional lines.  One faction, led by Minister 
of Education Jacob Nkate and Minister of Foreign Affairs 
Mompati Merafhe, enjoyed the semi-overt support of President 
Mogae and Vice President Khama.  The other faction, led by 
party Secretary General Daniel Kwelagobe and MP Ponatshego 
Kedikilwe, boasted a larger popular following.  Personality 
differences and ambitions for leadership positions, rather 
than political philosophy or policy priorities, defined the 
two groups.  The factions had emerged publicly after Vice 
President Khama defeated Kedikilwe in an election for the 
Chairmanship of the party in 2003.  At that congress, 
Kwelagobe was the only representative of his faction elected 
into the Central Committee.  Following the October 2004 
election, appointments to local councils and to the cabinet 
demonstrated a clear preference for members of the 
Nkate/Merafhe faction (Refs A and B).  Perceiving a threat 
to their political futures, Kedikilwe/Kwelagobe loyalists 
desperately worked to mobilize sentiment against their 
rivals.  The ensuing attacks and counter-attacks grew so 
impassioned that President Mogae declared a ban on BDP 
rallies a week before the Congress in a vain bid to preserve 
unity of spirit. 
 
MOGAE: FACTIONALISM "MUST AND WILL STOP" 
 
3. (U)  In his remarks to the BDP congress, President Mogae 
asserted that, based on its past performance, his party 
would win the 2009 elections, provided it put an end to self- 
defeating schisms.  He rejected as "laughable" the challenge 
posed by a potentially united opposition.  Although he 
denied that party divisions were deep, he attributed the 
BDP's shrinking popular support to them and the struggles 
for leadership positions on which they are based.  President 
Mogae declared that all campaigning for party offices must 
be "personal and discreet" and not make use of public media, 
thereby perpetuating internal rifts.  He threatened with 
disciplinary action party members who violated these 
instructions or otherwise contributed to infighting. 
 
KHAMA ALLIED WITH NKATE/MERAFHE FACTION 
 
4. (U)  Vice President Khama spent much of the past several 
months trying to broker a compromise within the BDP.  A 
congress of the BDP Women's Wing in May endorsed the notion 
by a narrow margin, suggesting that a possibility for an 
agreement between the two groups remained (Ref C).  As the 
national congress approached, however, reports frequently 
surfaced that these talks had broken down.  Finally, Khama 
admitted that his efforts had failed. 
 
5. (U)  Throughout the process of compromise talks, however, 
Khama was suspected of favoring the Nkate/Merafhe faction. 
The history of this group, having coalesced around Khama's 
candidacy for the party chairmanship in 2003, gave rise to 
such suspicions.  His failure to reprimand Nkate/Merafhe 
followers who continuously said in the media that the 
compromise was a non-starter fed this perception.  Khama's 
criticism of the Kedikilwe/Kwelagobe faction for attacks on 
its rivals, but silence over similar statements of the other 
faction members, appeared to set his seal on the 
Nkate/Merafhe group. 
 
6. (SBU)  BDP members reported to our Political Assistant 
that during voting for party offices at the congress, Khama 
acted as a whip, text-messaging leaders of the Nkate/Merafhe 
 
faction to ensure that their followers voted for the right 
person.  He is also said to have discouraged Minister for 
Presidential Affairs and Public Administration Phandu 
Skelemani, who sympathizes with Nkate/Merafhe faction, from 
standing as an additional Central Committee member, fearing 
that his candidacy would split the vote and give the 
Kedikilwe/Kwelagobe faction another seat. 
 
KWELAGOBE SURVIVES, NKATE/MERAFHE DOMINATES 
 
7. (U)  Ironically, the outcome of the election for party 
offices matched one of the compromise scenarios proposed by 
Khama - Kwelagobe retained the seat of Secretary General as 
the lone representative of his faction elected to the 
Central Committee.  The fact that this resulted from a hard 
fought contest - delegates told Political Assistant that 
they had lobbied and strategized all night on the eve of 
balloting - means that the trust and good will needed to 
heal the rift is more lacking than ever before.  Controlling 
the majority of powerfully positions in the party, the 
Nkate/Merafhe faction likely will have little interest in a 
compromise.  Having fought for and won the Secretary 
General's seat, Kedikilwe/Kwelagobe loyalists have renewed 
self-confidence and another two years at the helm of party 
operations to mobilize their supporters. 
 
8. (U)  In a move seen by many as Mogae's initiative to end 
rivalry between the factions within the BDP, he named two 
members of the Kedikilwe/Kwelagobe faction as additional 
members to the party's Central Committee.  Three 
representatives of the Nkate/Merafhe camp completed the five 
nominated seats.  The appointment of former BDP Chairman 
Ponatshego Kedikilwe and former Deputy Treasurer Paul Paledi 
departed from the 2003 experience when, after the Ghanzi 
congress, Mogae drew additional members only from the 
Nkate/Merafhe faction that had rallied around Vice President 
Khama.  This gesture alone will not reconcile the rivals, 
however.  Kedikilwe/Kwelagobe loyalists have made it clear 
that they hope for a cabinet shuffle that will usher more of 
their allies into ministerial positions.  So far, such a 
concession by the President seems unlikely. 
 
KHAMA A DIVISIVE FIGURE 
 
9. (SBU)  The Kedikilwe/Kwelagobe camp now thoroughly 
distrusts the Vice President but cannot acknowledge this 
fact publicly.  In a private conversation with Political 
Assistant, former Executive Secretary of BDP and Member of 
Parliament Botsalo Ntuane said that as BDP Chairman, Vice 
President Khama is failing to manage the party well.  He 
said Khama believes in "exclusive" policies, meaning a less 
than consultative approach to governance, which, he said, 
the Kedikilwe/Kwelagobe faction will resist.  In another 
private conversation, when asked who Khama's advisers were, 
MP Ponatshego Kedikilwe observed that Khama was not one to 
accept advice readily.  Although he was reluctant to talk 
about Khama, Kedikilwe said he "fears for the future."  Not 
surprisingly, these comments echo remarks from other BDP 
members associated with the Kedikilwe/Kwelagobe faction, 
such as former president of the BDP youth wing Gomolemo 
Motswaledi, that Khama is regarded as authoritarian and 
intolerant of views that differ with his own. 
Significantly, however, such fears have been articulated 
even by some of the Vice President's allies (Ref C). 
 
COMMENT 
 
10. (SBU)  President Mogae's confident rhetoric to the 
contrary, Botswana's ruling party has emerged from its 
biannual congress just as -- if not more -- divided than it 
was before.  These divisions are unlikely to result in a 
formal splintering of the party.  Although one camp deeply 
distrusts the Vice President, such misgivings are evident in 
the other faction as well.  No member of the BDP will 
articulate these facts due to the popular reverence for 
Khama as a chief, not just of the Bamangwato but of the 
entire nation.  Furthermore, the prospects of winning 
positions of influence as a member of a new party or 
opposition party remain quite slim.  Until that scenario 
changes, the prospects for an outright split in the BDP are 
small.  In a more likely scenario, bickering within the 
party will dismay its former supporters, reducing turn out 
of BDP adherents on election day 2009, which could enable 
the opposition to seize several marginal seats in 
parliament. 
 
HUGGINS 
 
 
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