US embassy cable - 05BRUSSELS2822

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 002822 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/26/2015 
TAGS: PREL, AL, BK, MK, SR, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: DAS ROSEMARY DICARLO'S MEETINGS WITH EU OFFICIALS 
ON THE BALKANS 
 
 
Classified By: USEU Political Military Officer Jeremy Brenner for reaso 
ns 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1. (C) Summary. According to EU Council and Commission 
officials, there can be no "shortcut" to EU membership for 
the countries of the Western Balkans, although their European 
perspective remains the long-term goal. Kai Eide is "gloomy" 
and disappointed with what he has seen of the standards 
implementation. The direction of the Commission report due in 
November on Macedonia's progress (the "avis") remains 
undecided. The Montenegro referendum is "inevitable" and may 
produce negative effects just as the Kosovo status is heating 
up. Albanian elections were "partially in compliance" with 
international standards, but the initial ODHIR assessment was 
too harsh.  End summary. 
 
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Kosovo and the Standards Review 
------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) EUR DAS for South Central Europe, Rosemary DiCarlo, 
met July 18 with Stephan Lehne of the EU Council Secretariat 
and Reinhart Priebe of the Commission for a tour d'horizon of 
the Balkans.  Lehne noted the July 19-20 visit to Belgrade by 
EU SG/HR Solana, saying that Solana would impress upon 
Kostunica and Tadic the need for participation by the K-Serbs 
in the Kosovo political process. He said that Special Envoy 
Kai Eide was "gloomy" and "disappointed" by what he has seen 
of the standards implementation in Kosovo on his initial 
visits. Lehne said that the message to the Kosovars has to be 
that they should not take the review process for granted and 
that the outcome is not a foregone conclusion. Lehne said 
that the standards review should be a "fitness test" for the 
Kosovars, and now is the time for them to prove their 
capacity for positive change. Lehne lamented that Eide and 
SRSG Jessen-Petersen do not work well together -- in part 
because Eide's review is seen as an examination of UNMIK's 
work. 
 
3. (C) Lehne said that there are two options for the outcome 
of Eide's report. The first would be to delay the start of 
status talks, and to try to use conditionality as leverage 
for improvements.  The second option would be to recognize 
that implementation of the standards has not been good, but 
that it is time to move ahead with status negotiations 
anyway. Lehne favors the second option, saying that there is 
little to be gained by further conditionality on the review, 
and that the lack of status is in itself inhibiting movement. 
 He cautioned that a delay in the start of status 
negotiations could be "risky," and only the negotiations 
could generate the political impetus needed for progress. 
When asked about possible candidates for the position of 
Special Envoy for the negotiations, Lehne replied that of the 
several names circulating, the one he hears mentioned most 
often is that of former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari. 
In Lehne's view, one of Ahtissari's strengths is that he can 
-- and does -- speak to heads of state on an equal footing. 
 
--------------------- 
Montenegro Referendum 
--------------------- 
 
4. (C) Lehne characterized the referendum as an "inevitable 
issue," and said that he feared the worst case outcome. In 
Lehne's view, the worst result would be if President 
Djukonovic were to hold a referendum in April 2006 "on his 
own terms" that was boycotted by the opposition. Djukonovic 
would declare a victory, the opposition would reject it as 
illegitimate, thereby causing major problems for the 
International Community just at the "hottest stage" of the 
Kosovo process. Lehne said that Djukonovic had "hinted" that 
he might be willing to postpone the referendum until 
September 2006 if the IC could "deliver" participation by the 
SNP. Lehne called for agreement on the rules of the game, 
committing both sides to accept the results of the voting as 
legitimate. His fear is that Djukonovic will conclude that he 
has the necessary votes on the ground, and will proceed 
without the IC -- thereby provoking the worst-case outcome 
that Lehne believes most likely. 
 
------------------- 
Enlargement outlook 
------------------- 
5. (C) Both Priebe and Lehne cautioned that there could be no 
"shortcuts" to EU membership for the countries of the Western 
Balkans.  Priebe was especially adamant that it is out of the 
question to lower criteria for membership.  Priebe emphasized 
that the European perspective for the region remained, as was 
reiterated in statements by the June European Council. He 
said that the burden of proof has shifted as a result of the 
no votes on the Constitutional treaty, so that it is up to 
the countries concerned to demonstrate to the citizens of the 
EU that they would not import instability and crime if they 
enter the union. He said it is very important for the 
Kosovars to understand that the standards review process is 
not a substitute for meeting the much more demanding 
Copenhagen criteria. Priebe also noted the high expectations 
among the Kosovars for significant economic assistance from 
the EU and the International Community more generally. 
------------------------------- 
Macedonia -- Commission Report 
------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) Lehne characterized the Commission as "not hugely 
happy" with progress in Skopje.  The Commission's Priebe said 
that the "avis" to be delivered in November would be a test 
case for the region in that it would be a "fair assessment" 
designed to give an encouraging signal to Macedonia, but it 
was too early to predict which way the decision would go. 
Both officials noted that the name issue is "getting in the 
way," though Lehne did not believe that Athens would veto 
Macedonia's candidate status over the issue. 
 
------------------ 
Albanian Elections 
------------------ 
 
7. (C) Priebe anticipates that the final ODHIR report on the 
Albanian elections will find that there was "partial 
compliance" with international electoral standards, 
reflecting the fact that in the Balkans there are few clear 
answers but only shades of grey.  Priebe suggested that the 
preliminary report was too harsh in its findings. There are 
no plans to suspend Albania's Stabilization and Association 
Agreement. 
 
------ 
Bosnia 
------ 
 
8. (C) Lehne said that HR Ashdown expects the police reform 
process to move forward, based on signals from the RS of a 
willingness to reach a compromise. Priebe said that the EU 
would like to open negotiations of a Stabilization and 
Association Agreement, but lack of movement on police reform 
and public broadcasting is preventing it. Priebe said that 
the successor to Lord Ashdown should not have -- or at least 
not exercise -- the Bonn powers. They each cited the 
impending tenth anniversary of the Dayton accords, with 
Priebe observing that the Constitutional system as it exists 
in Bosnia is unworkable and inconsistent with EU integration. 
He called for Bosnian ownership of the political process, and 
an openness to consideration of Constitutional reform. 
 
9. (U) DAS DiCarlo has cleared this message. 
 
McKinley 
 
.