US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI5755

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 005755 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/30/2015 
TAGS: PREL, KNNP, EINV, PGOV, IN, External Political Relations 
SUBJECT: JASWANT IN THE WILDERNESS 
 
Classified By: Charge Robert O. Blake, Jr. for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: A deeply embittered Jaswant Singh shared with 
us a scathing assessment of the Congress government, calling 
Manmohan Singh unfit to govern India and warning that the 
contradictions inherent in the UPA coalition made meaningful 
reform impossible.  Jaswant disassociated himself from the 
BJP's public criticism of the Congress promise to separate 
civilian and military nuclear facilities, arguing instead 
that the more troubling aspect of the US-India Joint 
Statement was the GOI's announced commitment to adhere to the 
MTCR and support a fissile material cutoff.  Echoing language 
from a BJP resolution released on July 23, Jaswant attacked 
the proposed opening of India's retail sector, claiming that 
the economic merits would be swamped by the political costs 
of challenging India's trader class.  Jaswant predicted that 
BJP President Advani would eventually prevail in the party's 
ongoing leadership tussle, arguing that the current churn was 
something that other Indian parties would benefit from.  End 
Summary. 
 
2. (C) Parliamentary opposition leader Jaswant Singh was in 
an unusually dark mood when the Charge called on him July 25. 
 Jaswant was skeptical that the Congress government would 
accomplish anything of substance during the upcoming session 
of Parliament, suggesting that the contradictions embedded in 
the UPA alliance made meaningful governance impossible. "The 
government is not in a position to state its plans," Jaswant 
continued, "because they are unsure what they can and cannot 
do."  The former Finance Minister criticized Manmohan Singh 
as a "civil servant who accident has brought here," claiming 
that the Prime Minister lacks the strength of character to 
govern effectively.  "My countrymen," he continued, "have no 
place for people with weak leadership."  Referring to 
Congress as "that Italian party," Jaswant claimed that 
Congress took power with a mere seven seat majority, stating 
that "the PM has not the authority to rule India." 
 
Opposition to Retail Opening 
---------------------------- 
 
3. (C) Jaswant also criticized the PM's economic management, 
assailing the proposal to open the retail sector to foreign 
investment as "badly timed and badly announced."  He argued 
that small shop holders were a backbone of Indian society, 
and implied that opening to foreign giants like Wal-Mart 
would be politically suicidal.  When the Charge pointed to 
evidence showing that Indian malls had not had an adverse 
impact on small retailers, Jaswant responded "this is not an 
academic discussion," suggesting that the debate will hinge 
on local political calculations.  Jaswant expressed 
satisfaction at the resolution of the Dabhol investment 
dispute, noting that negotiations began under his 
stewardship.  He warned, however, that the BJP's position on 
issues of privatization would be colored by its status now in 
the opposition.  He also assailed the UPA's failure to pursue 
more aggressively the BJP-initiated road building program, 
claiming that Congress had abandoned infrastructure projects 
simply because they were associated with the previous 
government. 
 
Moderate on US-India 
-------------------- 
 
4. (C) Responding to the Charge's point that the BJP can take 
some of the credit for the improving state of US-India 
relations, Jaswant agreed that the PM's Washington visit 
constituted a step forward.  However, he cautioned that "it 
would be easier on both sides if there was not so much 
hoopla," especially in the English press.  He observed that 
many in India harbor deep suspicions of the US 
non-proliferation lobby.  Having dealt with US-India 
relations for four and a half years, Jaswant continued, "I 
know how easy it is for a politician to be charged with 
turning the US into a 51st state" (implying that the BJP 
might also use this tactic). 
5. (C) Jaswant confirmed that Manmohan Singh had briefed him, 
Vajpayee and Advani on the direction of US-India negotiations 
before departing for Washington.  However, Jaswant added, 
that interaction impressed upon him that the PM has no one at 
the political level of his team who is knowledgeable on 
issues of national security and nuclear strategy.  "It is a 
discipline so complex that I don't see how they can handle it 
in Parliament," the former Foreign Minister remarked. 
Distancing himself from Brajesh Mishra's public line, Jaswant 
suggested that the proposal for segregation of India's 
civilian and military nuclear facilities could be "easily 
handled."  More troubling, he suggested, was the Joint 
Statement commitment to adhere to MTCR and to support the 
FMCT negotiations.  "I wouldn't have been in such a hurry," 
Jaswant continued, "I would have explained to my countrymen, 
this is the direction I'm heading." 
 
Future of the BJP 
----------------- 
 
6. (C) Concluding on domestic issues, Jaswant argued that 
traditional Indian politicians like VP Singh represent the 
worst traditions of rent-seeking, colonial era India.  He 
expressed skepticism about the democratic credentials of both 
the Communists and Congress, arguing that the BJP's recent 
"churning" has been good for party democracy.  Jaswant was 
pleased that Advani's leadership had been reaffirmed and was 
confident that Advani was in it for the long haul.  "I'm 
sorry to disappoint you," the opposition leader joked, "but 
the BJP is not dying." 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
7. (C) Jaswant's bitterness was out of character, and 
provides a window into the deep crisis that the BJP 
leadership is currently experiencing.  His criticism of the 
July 18 announcements is fueled at least partially by 
frustration that these breakthrough US-India understandings 
could not be achieved on the BJP's watch.  To some degree, 
Jaswant's long public association with the US-India 
relationship limits his ability to attack the UPA's foreign 
policy in public.  As one official pointed out, any time 
Jaswant tries to debate the US-India relationship, Congress 
pulls out Strobe Talbott's memoirs to demonstrate that 
Jaswant as Foreign Minister had pursued similar goals.  His 
criticism of Manmohan Singh's leadership style is also out of 
step with what we hear from others in Delhi, but here too 
Jaswant's personal attack on a Rajya Sabha colleague gives a 
sense of how bitter the partisan divide in Delhi has become. 
BLAKE