US embassy cable - 05BANGKOK4778

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 004778 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/BCLTV, INR 
PACOM FOR FPA (HUSO) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/20/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PTER, TH, Southern Thailand 
SUBJECT: THAILAND: VISIT TO FAR SOUTH JULY 18-19 
 
REF: A. BANGKOK 4697 
 
     B. BANGKOK 1008 
 
Classified By: DCM Alexander A. Arvizu. Reason 1.4 (d) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  On July 18-19 Poloff and DRL/PHD Foreign 
Affairs Officer Vanessa Golding visited the far southern Thai 
provinces of Narathiwat, Pattani and Songkhla.  Officers 
heard widespread concern that the deteriorating security 
situation is increasing tension between the Buddhist and 
Muslim communities and that Buddhist Thais, including large 
numbers of teachers, continue to leave the region.  Several 
of our interlocutors believe the militant groups are 
attempting to draw international attention to the situation 
in the South by making Islam a more central part of the 
conflict.  Many local observers believe the government's 
newly issued security decree will only further alienate the 
local population and complain that RTG security forces seem 
increasingly afraid to act against them.  END SUMMARY 
 
2.  (C)  Poloff and visiting DRL/PHD Foreign Affairs Office 
Vanessa Golding traveled to the far southern Thai provinces 
of Narathiwat, Pattani, and Songkhla July 18-19 as part of 
the Embassy's ongoing effort to monitor the continuing 
violence plaguing the Muslim majority region.  Officers met 
with: Abdulkarim Gali, Vice Chairman of the Narathiwat 
Islamic Committee; Dr. Ibrahim Narongraksakhet, Professor of 
Islamic Studies at Prince of Songkhla University (PSU); Dr. 
Chidchanok Rahimmula, Professor of Political Science at PSU; 
Songkhla Deputy Governor Suthep Komonphamon; Somphong 
Chutansuan, Chairman of the Law Society of Thailand for the 
southern region; and Niphon Bunyamani, Member of Parliament 
from Songkhla who is from the opposition Democrat Party. 
 
SITUATION CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE 
 
3.  (C)  Our interlocutors were uniformly gloomy about the 
overall situation in the South.  Abdulkarim Gali, from the 
Narathiwat Islamic Committee, said the security situation in 
the South is deteriorating daily.  Songkhla Deputy Governor 
Suthep Komonphamon agreed about the deteriorating security 
situation.  He lamented the significant drop in tourism in 
Songkhla province, noting hotel occupancy rates are down 70 
percent.  Suthep was one of many of our interlocutors who 
said that the daily acts of violence had become a "cycle" of 
revenge killings involving Muslim militants and RTG security 
forces. 
 
BUDDHIST AND MUSLIM COMMUNITIES - RELATIONS GETTING WORSE 
 
4.  (C)   Rising tension between the Buddhist and Muslim 
communities in the South was a central focus of discussion 
with many of our interlocutors.  Opposition MP Niphon told us 
he is concerned with the possibility of more overt communal 
violence between the Buddhists and Muslims.  Professor 
Ibrahim commented that the gap between the Buddhist and 
Muslim communities continues to widen in the South. 
Professor Chidchanok agreed, saying that while many Muslims 
feel persecuted, the Buddhist community often blames the 
government for offering "unfair concessions" to Muslims while 
failing to protect Buddhists from militant attacks.  She is 
worried that some Buddhists in the South, feeling 
increasingly isolated, will take "matters into their own 
hands" and begin to attack Muslims.  Chidchanok claimed that 
some Buddhist monks have been encouraging members of their 
communities to take up arms to defend themselves.  Deputy 
Governor Suthep also expressed serious concern about the 
potential for a backlash by Thai Buddhists in the South. 
 
TEACHERS LEAVING THE SOUTH 
 
5.  (C)  As with past trips to the South, we heard numerous 
reports of growing numbers of Buddhist Thais leaving the 
region, especially from Narathiwat province.  PSU Professor 
Chidchanok noted that PSU, a highly regarded university, had 
seen a number of student transfers to the PSU Hat Yai Campus, 
or to other universities in Thailand even further north.  In 
apparent confirmation of recent press reports, we heard 
several anecdotal accounts of teachers attempting to leave 
their posts in the South.  Abdulkarim Gali said the continued 
departure of teachers from the South was  complicating the 
Islamic Committees' efforts to work with the government on 
education reform initiatives.  Deputy Governor Suthep noted 
that 300 teachers from Songkhla have requested transfers from 
the province.  He said that Buddhist teachers have been 
receiving threatening leaflets and are living in fear. 
(NOTE: In subsequent conversations in Bangkok, Ministry of 
Education of Education (MOE) officials confirmed to Emboffs 
that they had received approximately 3,000 transfer requests 
from teachers in Narathiwat, Yala, Pattani and four districts 
of Songkhla.  MOE officials would not say how many teachers 
had actually left the region. END NOTE) 
 
MILITANTS USING ISLAM TO "INTERNATIONALIZE" CONFLICT? 
 
6.  (C)  Dr. Ibrahim Narongraksakhet from PSU explained about 
the changing nature of the conflict in the South.  Ibrahim 
noted that historically the resistance of southern Muslims to 
Thai central authority had been more nationalistic than 
religious in nature.  Ibrahim said that militants are 
working, and often succeeding, in trying to turn the conflict 
into a cause for "Jihad" in order to force the larger Muslim 
population into the conflict.  Professor Chidchanok agreed 
that the militants are trying to make Islam the central 
feature of the conflict.  She noted that in recent propaganda 
the militants have given added emphasis to calls for the 
creation of the "Islamic Republic of Pattani," vice the 
"Republic of Pattani."  She said that the hard core of 
separatist are not fundamentalist, but see the use of Islam 
as a tool to rally the Muslim population and create further 
psychological separation from the rest of Thailand.  She 
warned that the separatist groups are becoming closer 
ideologically, and operationally.  (NOTE: Chidchanok claimed 
that the separatist groups in the South have created a new 
overarching separatist coordinating body known as the "Dewan 
Pemperbasan Patani" (DPP or "Assembly for the Liberation of 
Pattani") that aims to unite the many different ideological 
and operational separatist groups.  She claims that the DPP 
has created a formal training course for indoctrinated youths 
called the "D-10" and that students must commit a violent act 
as part of the "final exam."  END NOTE) 
 
7.  (C)  During several of our meetings we were cautioned 
that the militants are trying to draw international attention 
to the situation by committing dramatic incidents -- most 
recently an increased number of beheadings.  Deputy Governor 
Suthep opined that pervasive rumors of U.S. involvement in 
instigating the violence in the South are being spread by the 
militants as part of their strategy to broaden the conflict. 
 
 
NEW SECURITY LAW - NOT WELL RECEIVED 
 
8.  (C)  The Emergency Decree approved by the cabinet on July 
15 imposes emergency rule in the provinces of Narathiwat, 
Yala and Pattani.  While the Bangkok press has focused on the 
potential impact the new law will have on civil liberties, 
most of our interlocutors in the South saw the new law as 
driving another wedge between an already disaffected 
community and the central government.  Abdulkarim Gali said 
local Muslim leaders are worried the decree would lead to 
even more abuses from government security forces.  Opposition 
MP Niphon Bunyamani agreed, also expressing concern that the 
new law would further alienate the local populace.  Somphong 
Chutansuan, Chairman of the Law Society of Thailand for the 
southern region, said many Muslims view the new Emergency 
Decree as confirmation that the government is focused on 
force instead of compromise.  Professor Ibrahim agreed, 
warning that the new security law will not only further 
alienate local Muslims from the rest of Thai society, but 
will further isolate the South economically by discouraging 
investment and tourism. 
 
9.  (C)  Even local government officials, like Deputy 
Governor Suthep, are reluctant to endorse the decree.  Suthep 
said that "officially" he supported the new Emergency Decree, 
but privately acknowledged to us that he was very concerned 
about the impact the law would have in the South.  He said 
that extremists would view the law as a "declaration of war" 
against the Muslim community.  Suthep worried that militants 
will use the law as another recruiting tool to rally sympathy 
and support from the international Muslim community. 
 
THAI SECURITY FORCES - AFRAID TO ACT? 
 
10.  (C)  We heard numerous reports that Thai security forces 
are not actively patrolling or are failing to respond 
immediately to insurgent attacks, making the civilian 
population feel even more isolated and adding to the growing 
sense of lawlessness in the region.  As with our previous 
visits to the region, we noticed most checkpoints were only 
nominally manned with police and soldiers hunkered down 
behind sandbags.  Deputy Governor Suthep explained that the 
police and military are hesitant to respond to reports of 
attacks out of fear of secondary bombs or ambushes.  Suthep 
is concerned that the outright hostility between local Muslim 
villagers and security forces are making Muslim areas 
effective "no go" places for RTG officials, and that security 
forces, sent to conduct a search or investigation in Muslim 
villages, will often withdraw to avoid the possibility of 
violent confrontation.  Professor Ibrahim suggested that the 
July 14 Yala attacks had been a message to the government 
that "we (the militants) can strike wherever, whenever we 
want."  Professor Chidchanok said that local government 
officials feel overwhelmed by the situation and that some 
believe the South has become uncontrollable. 
 
COMMENT 
 
11.  (C)  In the far South most local residents do not cite 
separatism as the central cause of the violence afflicting 
their region.  Southerners want the violence to stop so they 
can go about their lives -- the vast majority, as best we can 
tell, don't want a separate state.  Most southern Muslims do 
want the government to "atone" for an accumulated list of 
grievances, respect their culture and schools, and stop what 
they see as the daily "injustices" committed by security 
forces -- but they don't support radical separatist or 
Islamist ideals.  However, it appears that a small group of 
committed militants is framing the parameters of the debate, 
even though they are hardly representative of the desires of 
the vast majority of Muslims in the South.  Combined with the 
continued flight of non-Muslims, the growing alienation among 
the larger Muslim populace with the central government is 
making the national reconciliation effort significantly more 
difficult. 
 
12.  (C)  Of growing concern is the fact that the climate of 
fear and mutual distrust between the Buddhist and Muslim 
communities risks creating a cycle of violence that could 
take on a life of its own.  Since the level of violence in 
the far South began to seriously escalate in January 2004, 
the fighting has largely centered on attacks by militants on 
Thai security forces and symbols of the Thai regime 
(especially schools), followed by heavy-handed responses from 
Thai security forces.  This extended period of violence has 
created a widespread feeling of fear, isolation and anger in 
both the Buddhist and Muslim communities, and has the 
potential to expand the violence between the communities. 
END COMMENT 
BOYCE