US embassy cable - 90KHARTOUM7632

C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 07632 
 
E.O.12356;  DECL:OADR 
TAGS:  PREL, PINS, PGOV, SU, EG, NL, GE, IT, UR, MO 
SUBJECT:  DIPLOMATS AGREE--BASHIR IS HERE TO STAY, IF NOT 
          FOREVER AND A DAY 
 
1.  CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT. 
 
2.  AT LUNCH HOSTED BY CHARGE JULY 24 SIX SENIOR 
DIPLOMATS ASSIGNED TO KHARTOUM EXPRESSED THEIR CONVICTION 
THAT THE BASHIR GOVERNMENT WILL REMAIN IN POWER FOR THE 
FORESEEABLE FUTURE--AT LEAST SIX MONTHS, POSSIBLY A 
YEAR.  UNLIKE EARLIER MEETINGS WHICH WITNESSED WIDELY 
DIFFERING VIEWS, THIS TIME OUR COLLEAGUES WERE UNANIMOUS, 
NOT ONLY IN THEIR PREDICTIONS, BUT ALSO IN THEIR REASONS 
FOR THE PREDICTIONS. 
 
3.  THE FOLLOWING CHARGES/DEPUTY CHIEFS OF MISSION 
ATTENDED AS DID POLCOUNS: 
 
DR. AXEL WEISHAUPT, FRG 
MR. VICTOR GOGUITIDZE, USSR 
MR. MARCO CONTICELLI, ITALY 
MR. MOHAMED ABDEL WANIS, EGYPT 
MR. JONE BOS, THE NETHERLANDS 
MR. MOHAMED BOU DRIF, MOROCCO 
 
4.  ALL OF OUR COLLEAGUES ATTRIBUTED OMAR'S STRENGTH TO 
THE UBIQUITOUS SECURITY SERVICE AND THE GOVERNMENT'S 
DEMONSTRATED WILL TO TAKE DRASTIC ACTION AGAINST 
OPPONENTS.  THE SUDANESE, THEY AVERRED, HAVE BEEN COWED 
AND POTENTIAL ALTERNATIVE LEADERSHIP ELIMINATED FOR THE 
TIME BEING.  THAT SAID, THEY BELIEVE THAT OMAR CANNOT 
REST EASILY; THAT HE WILL ULTIMATELY BE REPLACED BUT NOT 
IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. 
 
5.  THEY ALSO ACKNOWLEDGE THE GROWING NIF INFLUENCE AND 
BELIEVE THAT WHEN THE NIF ATTEMPTS TO TAKE CONTROL OF THE 
MILITARY (WHICH THEY CONSIDER INEVITABLE), THE REACTION 
WILL BE VIOLENT AND BLOODY WITH OMAR AND THE NIF BOTH 
BEING DEPOSED.  ABDEL WANIS (EGYPT) WAS THE MOST 
EXPANSIVE AND KNOWLEDGEABLE OF THE GROUP, ESPECIALLY 
REGARDING CONTINUING LOW LEVEL DISCONTENT WITHIN SUDAN'S 
MILITARY.  HE DID, HOWEVER, PERHAPS IN RECOGNITION OF 
EGYPTIAN POLICY, OVEREMPHASIZE THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL 
ISLAMIC FRONT (NIF) IN THE GOS. 
 
 
O'NEILL