US embassy cable - 05MAPUTO911

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MAPUTO 000911 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
STATE FOR INR - SWEIGERT AND AF/S - HTREGER 
NSC FOR CCOURVILLE 
MCC FOR SGAULL 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/25/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, MZ, ENRG, Guebuza 
SUBJECT: MOZAMBIQUE: HONEYMOON OVER FOR GUEBUZA 
 
REF: MAPUTO 866 
Classified By: Ambassador Helen La Lime for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
Summary 
------- 
1. (C) Public support for the Guebuza government appears to 
be waning as a result of transportation price increases and 
perceived lack of focus and real action by his government. 
President Guebuza called a special, three-day extended 
Council of Ministers meeting with leaders from his government 
to address issues of poor performance. Just days after the 
meeting, reports that Prime Minister Luisa Diogo had offered 
to resign surfaced in the local press. Both Guebuza and 
Diogo denied the reports. Demonstrations against rising 
minibus fares continue in Maputo and Gaza provinces. End 
Summary. 
 
Guebuza's Call for Action 
------------------------- 
2. (SBU) On July 8 - 10, President Guebuza held a special 
three-day expanded Council of Ministers meeting attended by 
ministers, deputy ministers, provincial governors, and 
permanent secretaries, as well as senior parliamentarians and 
leading figures in the Frelimo party at the national and 
provincial level. Press reports indicate Guebuza called the 
meeting in an attempt to impose more discipline on his new 
administration, which has been the target of increased 
criticism over the last few months due to its perceived lack 
of direction and inability to meet expectations of change. 
 
3. (SBU) During his opening statement, Guebuza appealed for a 
change in attitude from his government, once again calling on 
leaders to develop strategies to fight against obstacles to 
development (i.e. apathy, red tape, corruption and crime). 
He stated it was not enough to just to show up to work on 
time, but instead demanded that his government deliver 
quality and results. Guebuza voiced criticism over the lack 
of progress towards development targets achieved by 
provincial governments, noting in some cases that less than 
50 percent of objectives, such as simplifying business 
licensing procedures, improving quality of public services, 
and combating crime, had been met. Though Guebuza fell short 
of publicly naming those governors who performed well below 
standard, most observers agree the reference was to Carvalho 
Muaria of Zambezia, Lazaro Mathe of Cabo Delgado, Djalma 
Lourenco of Gaza, and Filipe Paunde of Nampula. (Comment: 
Though some suspect these four may be on their way out, 
others believe that Guebuza may adopt a "wait and see" 
approach, holding out a bit longer before making changes at 
the provincial level. End Comment.) 
 
4. (SBU) Opposition Renamo leader Afonso Dhlakama cited 
Guebuza's remarks as proof that his criticisms of the GRM 
were correct, but did not offer any alternative proposals. 
Prime Minister Offers Her Resignation...Or Not? 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
5. (SBU) On July 13, in the wake of the expanded ministerial 
meeting, several local dailies carried stories claiming Prime 
Minister Luisa Diogo had offered her resignation. Both Diogo 
and Guebuza were quick to deny the claims with Diogo stating 
during a radio interview that the report was a lie "in very 
bad taste." Others have described the reports as an attack 
aimed at destabilizing the Guebuza government. The media 
alleged Diogo was unhappy over the growing influence of 
Minister of Planning and Development Aiuba Cuerenia, who is 
relatively young and inexperienced, but maintains close ties 
to Guebuza. Cuerenia served as the Finance Secretary for the 
Frelimo party prior to taking his post as Minister. 
(Comment: It has long been rumored that Diogo was not 
Guebuza's choice for Prime Minister, but that pressure from 
the Chissano camp within Frelimo demanded she retain the 
post. Sources indicate that though there was no offer of 
resignation from Diogo, she did express displeasure at being 
sidelined by Minister Cuerenia at a recent planning meeting 
that she was to chair in Chimoio, the capital of Manica 
province. End Comment.) 
 
The View on the Street 
---------------------- 
6. (SBU) Though Guebuza's populist approach to government 
may have garnered initial support from the Mozambican 
population, his popularity now appears to be waning at least 
temporarily. In their eyes, the high expectations set during 
his campaign and early months in office have not been met. 
Some of the discontent is also likely linked to 
dissatisfaction among those, principally mid-level public 
servants, who are feeling the crunch of tighter controls 
within some ministries, including stricter vehicle and cell 
phone policies and limitations on international travel. A 
flurry of critical text phone messages (SMS) have been flying 
around town recently, some claiming that if the election were 
held today, Guebuza would lose. (Comment: This claim seems 
exaggerated. End Comment.) 
 
7. (SBU) Rising transportation costs resulting from increased 
fuel prices have compounded the negative image of Guebuza's 
government (reftel). Residents in the provinces of Gaza and 
Maputo continue to protest increased fares charged by minibus 
taxis (known as "chapas") that serve as the primary form of 
transportation for a large majority of Mozambicans. Fares 
have increased more than 87 percent since June. The fare 
hike threatens the well-being of many Mozambicans who already 
spend a large portion of their monthly income on mini-bus 
fares to work and school. Reportedly at the insistence of 
Frelimo party officials, the GRM recently took steps to ease 
the economic pressure by putting two commuter trains in 
service to Maputo, however it is still too early to tell the 
impact this move will have. 
 
Comment 
------- 
8. (C) Turning the GRM around is proving more difficult than 
perhaps Guebuza expected. Targets for action in the first 
100 days were underachieved, as almost an entirely new group 
of ministers and governors tried to make their way up the 
learning curve. Many ministries are still being 
restructured, and key national directors have still not been 
appointed. The resulting uncertainty has made real change 
difficult to achieve. The public has begun to voice its 
discontent, and Guebuza's popularity is sliding. Guebuza's 
honeymoon appears to be over, and some lower profile 
ministers and vice ministers may see their jobs in jeopardy. 
End Comment. 
La Lime