US embassy cable - 05SOFIA1329

UNCLAS  SOFIA 001329 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, BU 
SUBJECT: BULGARIAN SOCIALISTS PRESENT MINORITY GOVERNMENT, 
BUT WITH SOME REASSURING FACES 
 
Ref: (A) SOFIA 1036, (B) SOFIA 1134, (C) SOFIA 1325 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Socialist PM-designate Sergei Stanishev 
presented his cabinet choices July 24, drawing candidates 
from his own party as well as his coalition partner, the 
mainly ethnic-Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedoms, and 
outside technocrats.  The proposed list seeks to garner 
public support and reassure the international community 
regarding the new government's foreign and macroeconomic 
policies.  Parliament will vote on the proposed cabinet July 
26.  The Socialists say they have secured the needed votes, 
but there is a degree of uncertainty, given that the BSP and 
MRF have only 116 MPs in the 240-seat parliament.  Although 
the BSP/MRF outline of government priorities calls for 
"immediate withdrawal from Iraq," high-level BSP sources 
reaffirmed that the process would likely drag on until the 
end of the year.  END SUMMARY 
 
2. (U) Stanishev presented to President Georgi Purvanov July 
24 the line-up of the new government, comprising 13 
ministers from the BSP and five from the MRF.  Along with 
prominent BSP figures, such as the party's two influential 
deputy leaders Roumen Petkov and Roumen Ovcharov, Stanishev 
has brought in respected figures from outside the party. 
Western-educated financier Ivailo Kalfin, who advised 
Purvanov on economic matters, was named one of two deputy 
Prime Ministers as well as Minister of Foreign and European 
Integration Affairs.  In what is the biggest surprise on 
Stanishev's list, Plamen Oresharski, who served as deputy 
finance minister in the 1997-2001 center-right 
administration of former PM Ivan Kostov, is proposed for the 
finance portfolio. 
 
3.  (SBU) Despite the Socialist's assurances that they have 
secured the needed parliamentary support, Tuesday's 
parliamentary vote remains a risky affair, given that the 
BSP and the MRF together are five votes short of a majority 
in the 240-seat parliament.  A close aide to Stanishev told 
us privately the Socialists have reached agreement with 
enough individual MPs from other parties to secure approval 
of the government.  If the Socialists fail, Purvanov will 
ask the second biggest party, the NMSS, to form a 
government.  If the second attempt fails, Bulgaria may face 
new elections. 
 
4. (SBU) COMMENT:  The collapse of the coalition talks with 
Simeon's party forced the Socialists to move to "Plan B" for 
forming a minority government with only the MRF.  Aware of 
the domestic and international apprehensions with regard to 
a potentially-unstable minority government, the Socialists 
turned to respected figures outside their party for key 
government posts.  The nominations of Kalfin for the foreign 
affairs portfolio and Oresharski for the finance portfolio 
send mostly reassuring signals for stability with regard to 
foreign and fiscal/monetary policy.  President Purvanov is 
also expected to play a moderating role in the foreign 
policy area.  Despite campaign promises to the contrary, BSP 
Deputy Chairman Roumen Petkov assured us that withdrawal 
from Iraq will not take place before the end of the year. 
The key test for the government, if approved, will be 
Stanishev's ability to garner parliamentary support to press 
ahead with EU-linked reforms needed to secure Sofia's 2007 
entry. END COMMENT 
 
KEY FACES: 
 
5. (SBU) SERGEI STANISHEV, PRIME MINISTER:  Stanishev is a 
39-year old Moscow-educated historian, whose only non- 
political experience was as a freelance journalist.  He is 
affable and media-friendly, and enjoys a largely positive 
public image, but is seen by some as lacking authority and 
experience.  As leader of the BSP parliamentary group in the 
previous parliament, he was a strong supporter of membership 
in the EU and NATO. 
 
6. (U) IVAILO KALFIN, DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER AND MINISTER OF 
FOREIGN AND EU-INTEGRATION AFFAIRS:  Kalfin was President 
Purvanov's economic advisor, which may indicate that 
Purvanov will have a significant say on foreign policy 
matters under the new government.  He is a Western-educated 
economist and financial consultant, and is fluent in 
English, Russian, French, and Spanish. 
 
7. (U) ANGEL NAIDENOV, MINISTER OF DEFENSE:  A Naval 
engineer and former mayor and regional Governor, Naidenov is 
considered a moderate reformer close to BSP leader 
Stanishev.  He was BSP spokesman and a member of the Foreign 
Affairs, Defense and Security Committee in the previous 
parliament. 
 
8. (U) PLAMEN ORESHARSKI, FINANCE MINISTER: Oresharski is an 
economist and financier who currently serves as Vice Dean of 
 
 
Sofia's Economic University.  He was previously a deputy 
finance minister under a center-right government in 1997- 
2001. 
 
9. (SBU) RUMEN OVCHAROV, MINISTER OF ENERGY AND ECONOMY:  As 
deputy Chairman, Ovcharov is among the most influential 
figures within the BSP.  He is a Russian-trained nuclear 
engineer who served as Energy Minister in the failed 
Socialist government of Zhan Videnov in 1996-1997. 
 
10. (SBU) ROUMEN PETKOV, MINISTER OF INTERIOR:  Petkov is 
the other influential Socialist deputy leader, responsible 
for BSP organizational matters and party funding.  His four- 
year term as mayor of Pleven was marred by allegations of 
corruption.  He is a pragmatist who maintains good relations 
with other parties, particularly the MRF. 
 
11. (U) Additional biographic data will be provided when the 
government is approved by parliament.