US embassy cable - 02AMMAN5267

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 AMMAN 005267 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA, PRM 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2012 
TAGS: PREF, PREL, IZ, JO 
SUBJECT: HUMANITARIAN AGENCIES IN JORDAN RAMPING UP IRAQ 
PLANNING ACTIVITIES; WARN OF MINIMAL STOCKS IN REGION AND 
CONSEQUENCES OF OFF DISRUPTION 
 
REF: GENEVA 3883 (NOTAL) 
 
Classified By: CDA Greg Berry, per 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Humanitarian agencies in Jordan have 
stepped up contingency planning efforts for a crisis in Iraq. 
 Estimated refugee flows (10,000 into Jordan over six months) 
match those provided reftel, but UN sources admit that they 
are based only on conjecture and, in fact, are purposely 
conservative to bring estimated financial needs into a 
reasonable range.  IOM reports that current UN planning does 
not include repatriation for the up-to 170,000 TCN's believed 
to be in Iraq or the 250,000 guest workers throughout the 
region.  UN, ICRC and IFRC representatives warned separately 
that there are no stockpiles of non-food relief supplies in 
the region and that it would take two weeks to move resources 
from other areas.  ICRC and IFRC representatives in Jordan 
(who support programs in Iraq) also warned that disruption of 
the OFF program in Iraq would affect the entire nation's food 
supply.  They fear also that Iraq's already-weakened water 
and sanitation systems are ill-equipped to handle new 
hostilities or new population flows.  Finally, worst-case 
scenarios in Jordan include the possibility of new refugee 
flows from the West Bank, a scenario UNRWA currently cannot 
handle.  End summary. 
 
UNHCR: Worried about Lack of Regional Stockpiles and Thin 
Staffing 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
2.  (C) As reported reftel, UNHCR has lead responsibility for 
contingency planning in the region, and would be responsible 
for its usual refugee registration and protection function 
should a crisis begin in Iraq.  Current UNHCR planning 
reflects a likely initial refugee flow of 3,000 into Jordan, 
with a total flow of 10,000 refugees over six months.  (These 
figures do not include the up-to 100,000 third-country 
nationals that IOM believes may seek repatriation from Iraq 
through Jordan.  See para 7 for details.)  However, UNHCR 
Representative Sten Bronee admitted that these figures are 
based only on conjecture and, in fact, are purposely 
conservative to bring projected financial needs into a 
reasonable range.  Bronee said UNHCR's budget, submitted to 
UNHCR/Geneva for inclusion in a region-wide humanitarian 
action response plan, includes USD 90,000 to preposition 
non-food supplies for the initial refugee flow, plus an 
additional USD 385,000 to care for the 10,000 refugees 
expected over six months.  These figures were developed in 
coordination with UNHCR's technical assessment team, 
currently touring the region in an effort to finalize 
projected contingency needs. 
 
3.  (C) UNHCR Inspector General Maureen Connelly, in Jordan 
as part of a larger regional tour, told Charge September 10 
that UNHCR currently has no/no stocks in the region, severely 
hampering its ability to respond to a crisis.  According to 
Connelly, UNHCR lacks basics such as tents, blankets, cooking 
kits, water purification kits, sanitation kits and vehicles 
-- essential items that the UN cannot stockpile under current 
limited funding.  Connelly said she also is worried about the 
ability of UNHCR's already thinly stretched staff to respond 
to a crisis.  Jordan Representative Bronee, for example, will 
be in Sudan on a two-month mission, leaving the Senior 
Protection Officer as the only full-time international 
employee at UNHCR/Jordan. 
 
4.  (C) Connelly also told the Charge UNHCR is worried about 
the GOJ's reluctance to engage in detailed planning 
discussions with the UN.  UNHCR/Jordan Representative Bronee 
had told us earlier that planning discussions with the GOJ 
are based on the GOJ's oft-stated public position that its 
borders are closed.  Bronee said that while he appreciates 
the GOJ's difficult political position, its reluctance to 
engage even in quiet, low-level discussions with the UN about 
practicalities such as water supply or warehousing 
capabilities is hampering the UN's planning efforts.  Without 
such discussions, UNHCR fears that it will face a scenario of 
Iraqi refugees stranded in the desert without access to food, 
shelter or water.  (Comment:  We are addressing this issue 
with the GOJ.) 
 
WFP:  13,000 Tons of Wheat on-Hand 
---------------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) According to WFP Representative Marwan Kokash, the 
World Food Program currently has 13,000 tons of wheat in its 
Jordan warehouses.  Of that amount, 4,000 tons are to be 
turned over to the GOJ to replenish stocks lent to WFP when a 
previous shipment was delayed.  The remaining 9,000 tons will 
be used in WFP's regular Jordan development programs and are 
intended to keep these programs running through September 
2003.  In addition, WFP has contracted with ICRC to import 
through Jordan 6,000 tons of wheat for the ICRC's West Bank 
rural food distribution programs.  ICRC Delegate Guy Mellet 
told refcoord that ICRC contingency planning calls for 
diversion of this wheat to Iraq, if necessary.  The wheat is 
scheduled to be distributed in the West Bank in November. 
Mellet noted that the ICRC's 15 trucks and international 
drivers, currently used for transportation of relief supplies 
between Jordan and the West Bank, also could be diverted to 
respond to a crisis in Iraq. 
 
6.  (C) Although WFP has some excess wheat stocks, Kokash 
told refcoord WFP lacks the stocks of cooking oil and 
enriched biscuits necessary to respond immediately to a 
crisis.  Kokash estimates that WFP would need 50 tons each of 
cooking oil and enriched biscuits to respond to initial 
refugee flows into Jordan, and has submitted these figures to 
the UN-wide humanitarian action response plan.  Kokash warned 
that without these stocks, the UN will be unable to meet 
refugees' food needs during the first two weeks of a crisis. 
 
IOM:  Preparing for 100,000 TCN's 
--------------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) IOM Representative Georgette Hosche reports that 
there are between 70,000 and 170,000 third-country nationals 
(Egyptian, Sudanese and Palestinian) currently resident in 
Iraq.  IOM contingency planning calls for the repatriation of 
up to 100,000 TCN's (mainly Egyptians) through Jordan, but 
notes that up to 250,000 guest workers throughout the Middle 
East may seek IOM assistance in returning home in the event 
of hostilities in Iraq.  IOM's contingency budget for 
repatriations through Jordan calls for USD 1.9 million, a 
figure that has not been included in the UN's humanitarian 
action response plan.  Hosche told refcoord that IOM also is 
prepared to assist UNHCR in registration of refugees, if 
needed.  Hosche echoed UNHCR's concerns about the current 
lack of coordination with the GOJ, noting that huge numbers 
of TCN's could end up stuck in the desert without access to 
food, shelter or water. 
 
ICRC & IFRC:  Worried about Stockpiles and Potential 
Disruptions to OFF, Water System in Iraq 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
8.  (C) In separate meetings with refcoord, Jordan-based ICRC 
and IFRC officials expressed concern about their own lack of 
stockpiles.  Although the ICRC has "huge" warehousing 
capacities in Amman, its regional administrative efforts 
currently are focused on supporting relief activities in the 
West Bank and Gaza -- some of which could be diverted to Iraq 
(see para 6).  However, ICRC Jordan Delegate Guy Mellet 
reports that ICRC would have to airlift supplies from its 
Kenya warehouses in order to meet non-food needs resulting 
from hostilities in Iraq.  According to IFRC Regional 
Delegate Christer Aqvist, the Federation currently only has 
25 percent of the non-food supplies it estimates would be 
necessary to provide support to an initial flow of 100,000 
displaced persons within Iraq.  Without a stockpile of these 
supplies (tents, blankets, cooking kits, medical supplies, 
etc.), Aqvist predicted that the first two weeks of a crisis 
would be a "disaster."  Aqvist noted that the IFRC had 
submitted a USD 1.5 million Iraq emergency preparedness 
proposal to the American Red Cross, but that the proposal had 
been rejected. 
 
9.  (C) Both ICRC and IFRC expressed serious concern about 
the Iraqi population's dependence on the Oil-for-Food program 
and the serious implications of any disruption in the 
program.  IFRC Iraq Delegate Sten Swedlund (in Jordan for 
IFRC meetings) told refcoord "the entire population" of Iraq 
is dependent on the OFF program for its food supply.  Any 
disruption in OFF, Swedlund warned, could lead to serious 
malnutrition problems.  IFRC public health specialist Greet 
DeVries characterized the Iraqis as a population "on the 
edge" both physically and psychologically.  As reported in 
UNICEF's 2001 survey of children in Iraq, almost one-third of 
children in the southern and central areas of Iraq suffer 
from malnutrition and one in eight children in those areas 
die before their fifth birthday.  DeVries warned that any 
disruption in the OFF program could cause the figures to 
worsen still further.  DeVries noted that no one she had met 
during a recent month-long tour of Iraq had stockpiled food 
or water supplies in their homes. 
 
10.  (C) ICRC and IFRC also warned separately of the dangers 
of disruptions to Iraq's water supplies.  According to ICRC 
Delegate Guy Mellet Iraq's water supply system fell into a 
serious state of disrepair when the guest workers who 
previously had maintained the system fled Iraq in 1990-1991. 
Since then, the ICRC has maintained the system and IFRC has 
tried to work through the Iraq Red Crescent Society to 
educate Iraqis on the proper way to treat unclean water, yet 
rates of fatal diarrhea have continued to rise in Iraq.  In 
order to manage the effects of any hostilities-inflicted 
damage to the Iraq's water system, the IFRC believes an 
immediate relief response would have to include jerry cans 
with purification tablets.  IFRC Iraq Delegate Swedlund is 
especially concerned about water and sanitation capabilities 
in northern Iraq.  He said the infrastructure there, already 
strained by population flows throughout the 1990s, cannot 
handle new population flows without new resources. 
 
UNRWA:  Fears of a Two-Front Refugee Crisis 
------------------------------------------- 
 
11.  (C) Finally, UNRWA Jordan Field Director Bill Lee told 
refcoord that relief agencies in Jordan are especially 
concerned about the possibility of a two-front refugee 
crisis, should Israeli policy or a new round of major 
violence cause Palestinians to flee in significant numbers. 
Lee reported that UNRWA, perpetually underfunded and 
currently focused on emergency relief operations in the West 
Bank and Gaza, does not have the capacity to respond to a new 
Palestinian refugee flow into Jordan.  Lee also expressed 
doubt that the GOJ would allow new Palestinians into Jordan. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
12.  (C) We are engaging with the GOJ to make sure they are 
addressing the possibility of movement of TCN's through 
and/or refugees into Jordan, and are coordinating in a 
low-key fashion with the appropriate international assistance 
organizations to assess potential needs and available 
resources. 
 
BERRY