US embassy cable - 02ROME4484

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 004484 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR KURT VOLKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/2012 
TAGS: PREL, MARR, MARR, IT, NATO, ITPREL, NATO, IRAQI FREEDOM 
SUBJECT: WINNING ITALY OVER ON IRAQ -- CORRECTED VERSION 
TECHNICAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        ROME  04484  01 OF 02  131740Z 
REF: USNATO 0989 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EMIL SKODON FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D 
) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY.  ITALY IS MOVING CLOSER TO WHERE WE WANT OUR 
NATO ALLIES TO BE ON IRAQ. PM BERLUSCONI, AND INCREASINGLY 
OTHER TOP GOVERNMENT LEADERS, UNDERSTAND THE STRATEGIC 
IMPORTANCE OF NEUTRALIZING IRAQ'S WMD CAPABILITIES.  THEY 
HOPE WAR CAN BE AVOIDED.   HOWEVER, THROUGH PUBLIC REMARKS 
AND A FORWARD-LEANING COMMUNICATIONS STRATEGY, THE GOI IS 
BEGINNING TO PREPARE THE ITALIAN PEOPLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY 
THAT MILITARY ACTION AGAINST BAGHDAD WILL BE TAKEN. 
BERLUSCONI AND DEPUTY PM FINI CONTINUE TO STRESS THAT THE USE 
OF FORCE TO DEFANG IRAQ, PREFERABLY UNDER UN COVER, IS 
WARRANTED IF OTHER APPROACHES FAIL.  ACCELERATED HIGH-LEVEL 
INTELLIGENCE SHARING, CLOSE CONSULTATIONS, AND FOCUSED PUBLIC 
OUTREACH ARE KEY TO ENSURING THE GOI KEEPS ITS MESSAGE ON 
TRACK.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) ITALY WILL BE A HELPFUL PARTNER WHEN PRESIDENT BUSH 
VISITS EUROPE IN NOVEMBER AND AT THE NATO DEFENSE MINISTERIAL 
LATER THIS MONTH.  TOP GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS, ESPECIALLY PRIME 
MINISTER BERLUSCONI, ARE MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION ON 
IRAQ AND WILL NOT SHY AWAY FROM DISCUSSING IT BENEFICIALLY IN 
A NATO CONTEXT.  EVEN IN THIS FRIENDLY ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER, 
THE GAME IS NOT OVER. 
 
3.  (C) ON THE PUBLIC AFFAIRS FRONT, BERLUSCONI AND HIS 
COMMUNICATIONS TEAM ARE DOING A COMMENDABLE JOB OF PREPARING 
THE ITALIAN PEOPLE FOR POSSIBLE MILITARY ACTION. 
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BERLUSCONI'S LATEST FORAY--A SIGNED FRONT-PAGE ARTICLE IN AN 
ITALIAN DAILY SEPTEMBER 11--CONDEMNED IRAQ'S SYSTEMATIC 
VIOLATION OF ITS UN OBLIGATIONS, ARGUED THAT THE USE OF FORCE 
TO AFFECT CHANGE SHOULD NOT BE EXCLUDED, AND AVERRED THAT 
THERE ARE MOMENTS IN HISTORY WHICH CALL FOR PREVENTIVE 
ACTION.  "THINGS EITHER CHANGE," HE SAID, "OR IT WILL BE 
NECESSARY TO ACT IN A CONCRETE MANNER, WITH EVERY POSSIBLE 
DIPLOMATIC AND POLITICAL VEHICLE, AND WITHOUT EXCLUDING THE 
MILITARY OPTION." 
 
4. (C) LATER, COMMENTING PUBLICLY ON THE PRESIDENT'S UN 
SPEECH, BERLUSCONI SAID HE WAS SURE THE SECURITY COUNCIL 
WOULD NOT HESITATE TO IMPOSE INSPECTIONS ON IRAQ NOR TO 
AUTHORIZE THE USE OF MILITARY FORCE IN THE EVENT SADDAM 
CONTINUES TO FLOUT ITS RESOLUTIONS.  ASKED DIRECTLY WHETHER 
ITALY WOULD TAKE PART IF THERE WAS AN ATTACK, BERLUSCONI 
HEDGED:   "LET'S WAIT AND SEE," HE SAID. "AT THE RIGHT TIME 
ITALY, ALONG WITH ITS EUROPEAN PARTNERS, WILL TAKE THE RIGHT 
DECISION."  OTHER KEY GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS--WHO HAVE THEIR 
OWN POLITICAL ORCHARDS TO TEND--ARE BEGINNING TO ADOPT MORE 
FORWARD-LEANING POSITIONS.  DEPUTY PM FINI, LEADER OF THE 
SECOND LARGEST PARTY IN THE GOVERNING COALITION, SAID IN 
PUBLIC REMARKS AT THE AMBASSADOR'S RESIDENCE ON SEPTEMBER 11 
THAT, "IN THE STRUGGLE AGAINST TERRORISM THE USE OF MILITARY 
FORCE IS SOMETIMES NECESSARY." 
 
5.  (C) PRESIDENT CIAMPI, A KEY OPINION MAKER AND INDEPENDENT 
FROM BERLUSCONI'S GOVERNMENT, HAS HEWED TO A MORE CIRCUMSPECT 
PUBLIC POSITION, BUT NEVERTHELESS UNDERSCORED ITALY'S STRONG 
SOLIDARITY WITH THE UNITED STATES IN THE FIGHT AGAINST 
TERRORISM IN REMARKS COMMEMORATING SEPTEMBER 11.  DURING AN 
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OFFICE CALL BY THE AMBASSADOR AND DCM PRIOR TO PUBLIC 
CEREMONIES ON SEPTEMBER 11, CIAMPI SAID IT WAS NECESSARY TO 
FIGHT TERROR BUT ALSO TO ERADICATE IT FROM THE "MINDS AND 
HEARTS" OF ITS POTENTIAL RECRUITS.  HE EXPLAINED THAT 
FIGHTING TERRORISM INCLUDED, IN HIS OPINION, ACTING TO 
DESTROY WMD, WHILE WINNING HEARTS AND MINDS MEANT ADDRESSING 
POLITICAL AND SOCIAL PROBLEMS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND 
ELSEWHERE.   WE MAY HEAR MORE OF THIS TWO-TRACK APPROACH IN 
COMING WEEKS AS GOI POLITICAL LEADERS WORK TO BUILD PUBLIC 
SUPPORT FOR THE POSSIBLE USE OF FORCE AGAINST IRAQ. 
 
6.  (C) THE CENTER-LEFT OPPOSITION IS SPLIT BETWEEN THOSE 
OPPOSED TO WAR AT ALL COSTS, AND OTHERS--NOTABLY LEADERS OF 
THE LARGEST LEFT-WING PARTY--WHO ACKNOWLEDGE THAT, IF 
AUTHORIZED BY THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL, IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT 
AS AN EXTREME MEASURE.  THE CENTER-LEFT DOES NOT HAVE 
SUFFICIENT WEIGHT IN THE PARLIAMENT TO HOLD THE GOVERNMENT 
HOSTAGE ON KEY FOREIGN POLICY MATTERS.  HOWEVER, ON A MATTER 
OF SUCH GRAVITY, BERLUSCONI WILL NOT BE ABLE TO RUN ROUGHSHOD 
OVER THE OPPOSITION, NOR IS HE SO INCLINED.  ASSISTING THE 
GOI BUILD BROAD POLITICAL BACKING FOR OUR IRAQ POLICY WILL 
HELP ENSURE THAT ITALIAN SUPPORT IS DELIVERED AND CAN BE 
SUSTAINED. 
 
7.  (C) TO THAT END, PURSUING THE TACTICS RECOMMENDED IN 
REFTEL, SOME OF WHICH WE HAVE ALREADY DEPLOYED IN ITALY, IS 
 
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                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5751 
 
PAGE 01        ROME  04484  02 OF 02  131740Z 
ACTION EUR-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  INL-00   SRPP-00 
      DS-00    VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    L-00 
      VCE-00   MOFM-05  MOF-01   AC-01    NEA-00   NRRC-00  NSAE-00 
      OIC-02   PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SCT-00 
      SP-00    SSO-00   SS-00    TRSE-00  T-00     USIE-00  R-00 
      EPAE-00  SSD-00   PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-00   DRL-02   G-00 
      SSR-00   NFAT-00  SAS-00     /012W 
                  ------------------E71C4B  131740Z /38 
O 131719Z SEP 02 
FM AMEMBASSY ROME 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5842 
INFO EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY 
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY 
SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY 
AMCONSUL MILAN 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ROME 004484 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR KURT VOLKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/2012 
TAGS: PREL, MARR, NATO, IT 
SUBJECT: WINNING ITALY OVER ON IRAQ -- CORRECTED VERSION 
TECHNICAL 
 
ESSENTIAL.  FOLLOWING BERLUSCONI'S IN-DEPTH INTELLIGENCE 
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PAGE 02        ROME  04484  02 OF 02  131740Z 
BRIEFING ON IRANIAN AND IRAQI WMD PROGRAMS SEPTEMBER 13 IN 
NEW YORK, AND HIS MEETING WITH THE PRESIDENT AT CAMP DAVID ON 
SEPTEMBER 14, HE SHOULD BE EVEN MORE WILLING TO LISTEN TO 
ARGUMENTS ON THE NEED TO CHANGE COURSE ON IRAQ, ESPECIALLY 
UNDER US SECURITY COUNCIL SANCTION.  NEVERTHELESS, WE NEED TO 
AND CAN DO MORE.  CONTINUED CLOSE CONSULTATIONS ARE 
ESSENTIAL.  WE ALSO WOULD APPRECIATE AN EVEN RICHER 
INTELLIGENCE EXCHANGE WITH SENIOR GOI OFFICIALS TO GENERATE 
DEEPER UNDERSTANDING OF THE RISKS POSED BY WMD TO ITALIAN 
AND, MORE BROADLY, EUROPEAN SECURITY.  RECENT POLLING DATA ON 
PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR MILITARY ACTION IS CONFLICTING.  ONE 
SURVEY PUBLISHED SEPTEMBER 12 SHOWED 59 PERCENT AGREED A 
"PREVENTIVE INTERVENTION IN IRAQ" WOULD BE JUSTIFIED, WHILE 
ANOTHER THE SAME DAY SAID 66 PERCENT OPPOSED MILITARY ACTION. 
 TWO THINGS, HOWEVER, ARE CLEAR: PUBLIC OPINION IS IN FLUX 
AND A WELL-TARGETED, AND, WE DARE SAY, RELENTLESS PA EFFORT 
CAN AFFECT IT. 
 
8. (C) COMMENT.  THE GOI WILL DO ITS UTMOST TO ENSURE THAT 
THE EU ARRIVES AT A UNIFIED POSITION ON IRAQ.  IN THE EVENT 
THAT PROVES IMPOSSIBLE, OUR ACE IS THAT BERLUSCONI 
UNDERSTANDS--AND SHOULD APPRECIATE EVEN MORE AFTER HIS 
MEETINGS IN THE UNITED STATES--THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF 
DEFANGING BAGHDAD.  MOREOVER, BERLUSCONI HAS DEMONSTRATED A 
CAPACITY FOR LEADING PUBLIC OPINION ON FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES 
HE KNOWS ARE MAKE OR BREAK FOR US.  HE AND OTHER KEY GOI 
LEADERS, HOWEVER, REMAIN CONCERNED ABOUT THE DESTABILIZING 
POTENTIAL OF WAR IN THE NEAR EAST.  THEIR PREFERENCE IS TO 
AVOID IT.  REASSURING THEM THAT WE HAVE THOUGHT THROUGH THE 
IMPLICATIONS AND ARE COMMITTED TO POST-CONFLICT 
RECONSTRUCTION--AND PROVIDING RELEVANT POINTS FOR THE GOI TO 
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USE IN ITS PUBLIC RELATIONS EFFORTS--WILL BRING PAYOFFS.  END 
COMMENT. 
SKODON 
 
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 2002ROME04484 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL