US embassy cable - 05CAIRO5650

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 CAIRO 005650 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/24/2015 
TAGS: PTER, PGOV, CASC, ASEC, ECON, EG 
SUBJECT: EGYPT REACTING TO SHARM BOMBINGS 
 
REF: A. CAIRO 5622 
     B. CAIRO 5619 
 
Classified by Charge d'Affaires Stuart Jones for reasons 1.4 
(b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) Egypt remains shocked and is struggling to digest the 
terrorist attacks in Sharm el-Sheikh in the early hours of 
July 23, the country's official national holiday.   The 
attacks, three separate bombings targeting one of the 
country's premier tourist destinations, appear to be the 
deadliest single terrorist incident in Egypt's history. 
Calculating the death toll is still an approximate exercise. 
Egyptian recovery teams which had discovered 62 corpses and 
20 bags of body parts by the morning of July 24.  In 
mid-afternoon they found 35 more bodies in the rubble of the 
Ghazala Gardens hotel in Na'ama Bay, bringing the total of 
dead to at least 97 - a figure that will inevitably climb. 
President Mubarak went on the offensive, visiting the bomb 
site, issuing a defiant statement vowing to battle terrorism 
to the end, and proceeded to a second Red Sea resort to 
reassure tourists there. 
 
2. (C) Theories on responsibility vary widely, with some 
Egyptians maintaining that the perpetrators "must" have been 
outsiders, given that ordinary Egyptians bore the brunt of 
the attacks.  Others speculate that the attacks were 
homegrown, linked to conspirators responsible for the 
Taba/Nuweiba bombings in October 2004, with their 
Sinai-Bedouin connections.  Some Cairo-based activists have 
been attempting to organize a vigil in solidarity with the 
victims and protesting the attacks, but initial responses 
were lukewarm.  Contacts in the tourism industry were gloomy 
but noted that it was still too early to measure the impact 
of the attacks.  Some tourism contacts express the grim hope 
that with the recent attacks in London, and other incidents 
such as the 2004 Madrid bombing, tourists will view terror 
attacks as a tragic fact of life and not be deterred from 
plans to visit Egypt.  End summary. 
 
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Body Count 
---------- 
 
3. (C) All the casualty figures cited in the media remain 
approximate, as Egyptian recovery teams continue to sort 
through the three blast sites in Sharm el-Sheikh.  The most 
devasted site was the Ghazala Gardens Hotel in the heart of 
Na'ama Bay, the center of Sharm's night life, featuring 
dozens of restaurants, open-air cafes, and nightclubs.  The 
Embassy team of consular and security officers which arrived 
in Sharm by mid-morning of the 23rd advised that recovery 
teams had collected 62 corpses and twenty bags of body parts. 
 By mid-afternoon, recovery teams had pulled 35 more bodies 
from the wreckage of the targets, bringing the total dead to 
97 - a number certain to climb to well over 100. 
 
4. (C) Given the density of foreign tourists in Sharm and 
Na'ama Bay, the number of confirmed foreign dead remains 
surprisingly small - approximately eight.  One AMCIT who had 
been in Sharm with her British friend has been confirmed 
killed in the explosion (septel follows).  European diplomats 
advised us that at least one Italian was dead and another 
gravely injured while the British Embassy believed, but was 
still working to confirm, that "several" Britons were dead. 
The Germans and French believed none of their nationals were 
among the dead or severely wounded. 
 
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A Bitter Pill 
------------- 
 
5. (C) Egyptians are having trouble digesting the grim news 
from Sharm el-Sheikh.  As noted septel, the overall tone of 
media reactions has been defiant and indignant.  Even 
journalists like Abbas Tarabilly, editor of the Wafd 
opposition newspaper, who never misses a chance to attack 
U.S. policy, wrote that such an attack was inexcusable, 
though he allowed that the incident was "somehow connected" 
to Israeli and Anglo-American aggression. 
 
6. (C) On the evening of July 23, Egyptian state television 
broadcast interviews with victims, mainly ordinary Egyptians 
still bloodied as they lay in wards in hospitals in Sharm 
el-Sheikh and nearby Tor, the administrative capital of South 
Sinai governorate.  Several Egyptian viewers told us they 
were impressed by state TV's coverage, which they found 
uncharacteristically timely, frank, and thorough.  Another 
Egyptian told poloff he had been moved and disturbed by these 
pictures, adding that he was certain the perpetrators must 
have come from abroad.  He could imagine violent Egyptian 
fundamentalists targeting foreigners, he said, whom they 
dislike for their skimpy clothing and perceived loose morals, 
but the targets chosen, the Ghazala Garden and Sharm's old 
market, were heavily populated with ordinary Egyptians. 
7. (C) A European diplomat told poloff that Egyptians in 
Sharm are speculating that the attack was perpetrated by 
local bedouin, in retaliation against the state for the mass 
arrests of Bedouins that followed the October 7, 2004 attacks 
on Israeli tourists in Taba and Nuweiba.  The GOE identified 
a poor resident of Al-Arish, of Palestinian origin, as 
mastermind of the October attacks, implemented in cooperation 
with a group of Sinai bedouin, most of whom had petty 
criminal records.  Human Rights Watch has accused the GOE of 
arresting and mistreating as many as 2,400 Sinai residents, 
particularly young men in and around al-Arish, North Sinai, 
in the months following the October 7 incidents. 
 
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Mubarak Out Front 
----------------- 
 
8. (C) President Mubarak has been much more active, publicly, 
in response to the July 23 Sharm incident than he had been 
after either the October 2004 Sinai attacks or the April 2005 
Cairo incidents.  As noted ref A, Mubarak flew to Sharm 
within hours of the incident, to visit survivors in hospital 
and supervise rescue and security response operations. 
Mubarak subsequently flew to Hurghada, second only to Sharm 
in Red Sea tourism, and did a "walkabout" to reassure foreign 
tourists.  The visit was widely reported in domestic and 
international media. 
 
9. (U) Mubarak's public remarks on the incident, broadcast 
live on Egyptian TV and repeated numerous times on Egyptian 
and regional Arabic stations, were decisive and defiant.  The 
following are excerpts from his remarks, as transcribed by 
FBIS: 
 
Begin Text 
 
"I, with all Egyptians supporting me, stress that the powers 
of terrorism will not divert Egypt from its march to achieve 
peace and stability for its sons, region and nation. We will 
never relinquish Egypt's national security and we will not 
allow anyone to threaten its stability. 
 
"I would like to offer my sincere condolences to the families 
of the victims.  I stress our resolve to crack down on 
terrorism and all that it represents in terms of putting fear 
into the innocent citizen and directly threatening the lives 
of his children. 
 
"We will continue our battle against terrorism with all our 
force, determination and will.  We will neither submit to its 
blackmail nor compromise with it.  We will protect Egypt's 
security, stability, and the future of its sons from its 
threats and dangers." 
 
End text. 
 
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Symbolic Target, Date 
--------------------- 
 
10. (C) Much of the public commentary, and private reactions 
among Egyptians to the July 23 attacks, noted the irony and 
symbolism of targeting Sharm el-Sheikh, which the GOE likes 
to tout as the "city of peace," particularly given its 
history as a venue for international summits and ministerial 
conferences.  Many have also noted that the attack occurred 
on July 23, the anniversary of the Egyptian army's overthrow 
of the monarchy and establishment of the modern republic. 
Sharm is also a favored retreat of President Mubarak, who 
maintains a residence just two miles north of Na'ama Bay, and 
has become a major symbol of Egypt's tourist industry.  Many 
international travel agencies, particularly in Western Europe 
and Russia, run regular charter flights directly into Sharm 
el-Sheikh International Airport. 
 
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Impact on the Tourist Industry 
------------------------------ 
 
11. (SBU) Maintaining that it is still too early to gauge the 
ultimate effects of the attacks on Egypt's most lucrative 
industry, Embassy contacts and analysts fear that the attacks 
will devastate the industry in Sharm el Sheikh and the Red 
Sea coastal resorts, with a perceptible, although less 
pronounced, impact in other regions. 
 
12. (SBU) In Sharm, industry contacts are waiting for the 
start of the European work week to fully assess long-term 
cancellations, although they fear the remainder of the summer 
season may be lost.  Regarding immediate cancellations and 
departures, Egyptian television is reporting occupancy rates 
in the resort as having dropped from 100 percent to 80 
percent; press and anecdotal reports claim the majority of 
those leaving the resorts are Egyptian with foreigners 
largely staying put.  However, press reports also cite the 
decision of Thomas Cook, Europe's second-largest travel 
agency, to suspend all flights to Sharm and the arrival in 
Egypt of additional European charter flights to ferry home 
early-departing travelers. 
 
13. (SBU) Anecdotal evidence that the attacks are affecting 
areas far from the Red Sea resorts is also beginning to 
emerge.  A manager of a large American-owned hotel in the 
Zamalek district of Cairo reports that reservation calls are 
half their daily average for the season while daily 
cancellations are three times the average.  He noted the 
cancellations were individual cancellations, not from travel 
agencies, which he expects will increase when Europe opens 
for business Monday.  He also noted, however, that the 
hotel's occupancy rate jumped six points yesterday from what 
he interpreted as an increase in walk-in business from Gulf 
Arabs leaving Sharm for more secure surroundings in Cairo. 
 
14. (SBU) Garry Friend (protect), manager of the Grand Hyatt 
in Cairo, who was previously manager of the Hyatt in Sharm, 
reports that Hyatt's large Sharm hotel, though undamaged in 
the attacks, was "emptying out."  He also reported that 
German tour operator TUI has cancelled all of its charters to 
Sharm for at least the next few days.  Friend said that he 
expects Sharm to be "off everyone's list" as a travel 
destination for at least the next few months.  At the same 
time, Friend noted, the Cairo Hyatt is still booked at better 
than 90 percent capacity, mostly Gulf Arab vacationers who 
have no plans to cancel. 
 
15. (SBU)  Amr Badr, head of the high-end Abercrombie & Kent 
tour operation in Egypt, estimated the immediate impact of 
the attack (damage to facilities, immediate cancellations, 
disruptions to business) at LE 600-700 million ($100-120 
million).  Badr noted a pair of high-profile cancellations 
(one from a wealthy U.S. businessman who had cancelled a 
$50,000 booking at the insistence of his security staff) but 
cautioned against drawing conclusions based on anecdotal 
cancellations.  The head of the American Express travel 
operation in Egypt reported no cancellations "yet," but also 
cautioned that the next few days will be key. 
 
16. (SBU) Hoteliers in Egypt's Mediterranean hub of 
Alexandria, popular mostly with local and or other Arab 
tourists in the summer months, report no cancellations thus 
far and don't anticipate an immediate negative impact. 
 
17. (SBU)  Comment:  Citing terror attacks in recent years in 
New York, Madrid, London, Turkey and elsewhere, our tourism 
conacts express a grim hope that international travelers have 
simply become acclimated to a higher risk of political 
violence and are less ready to cancel travel plans as a 
result.  They often cite the negligible impact of the 
Taba/Nuweiba attacks last October as evidence.  Only after 
tour operators go back to work in Europe in the next few days 
will we be able to judge if this optimism is justified.  End 
comment. 
 
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Solidarity Vigil 
---------------- 
 
18. (SBU) A number of Egyptians active in Cairo's nascent but 
growing "protest community" have, in the past 24 hours, been 
working to organize a vigil in Cairo to condemn the Sharm 
bombings and express solidarity with its victims.  The 
proposal prompted debate on popular Egyptian blog sites on 
July 23, with some arguing that Egyptians had no need to 
"prove to the West that they were innocent" or "apologize for 
the criminals who did it."  Explaining his call for the 
vigil, one of the organizers wrote on his website "What 
happened in Sharm el-Sheikh was a heinous cowardly 
destructive act that should be condemned.  What happened has 
no excuse or justification.  The supreme majority of those 
who were injured or died are Egyptians and the people who 
will suffer the most from the repercussions will be us 
Egyptians as well." 
 
19. (SBU) The effort to stage a vigil, however, did not 
appear likely to yield a large turnout as of mid-afternoon on 
July 24.  One of the organizers received lukewarm to cool 
reactions from other groups recently active in organizing 
political demonstrations in Cairo.  The frustrated organizer 
posted the following reaction: "The anti-Mubarak, Kifaya, 
Ayman Nour people disgust me with their indifference...they 
tell us they are not interested (in the solidarity vigil), it 
may not benefit them politically...This isn't about being pro 
or anti-Mubarak.  This is about Egypt and what happened to 
it..." 
 
Visit Embassy Cairo's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/cairo 
 
You can also access this site through the 
State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. 
 
JONES