US embassy cable - 02RANGOON1185

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001185 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV 
USCINCPAC FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/12 
TAGS: PREL, BM 
SUBJECT: EU TROIKA IN BURMA 
 
Classified By: CDA Ron McMullen. Reason: 1.5 (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: The EU Troika will not recommend any change 
in the EU's common position on Burma.  That is the conclusion 
of British diplomats who accompanied the team on all of their 
visits in Yangon. Foreigners were uniformly concerned about 
deteriorating economic conditions, while Aung San Suu Kyi and 
ethnic leaders sharply criticized the government for its 
delay in releasing political prisoners and opening up a 
serious political dialogue on constitutional issues.  EU 
senior officials will meet October 11 to consider the 
Troika's report, but, barring dramatic developments between 
now and then, will likely recommend that the EU keep its 
common position unchanged. End Summary. 
 
2. (C) The EU Troika completed a disappointing visit to Burma 
September 10 and probably will not recommend any change in 
the EU's common position on Burma.  According to British 
Embassy diplomats who accompanied the team on their visits, 
the group met with an almost unrelenting stream of 
pessimistic judgments on the state of the government's 
stalled dialogue with Aung San Suu Kyi and on the economic 
and social situation in Burma.  The singular exception was 
Deputy Foreign Minister Khin Maung Win, who assured the 
troika that there was "a growing sense of confidence in the 
country," and "a strong sense of national identity."  The 
country, he said, was on "the right path to fulfill its 
vision of a united democratic Burma." 
 
3.  (C) All others were less sure of the country's future. 
Leon de Riedmatten was embarrassed and disappointed by the 
lack of progress in the government's talks with Aung San Suu 
Kyi.  Ethnic leaders exhibited a "touchy reliance" on Aung 
San Suu Kyi to represent their interests in the current 
political talks, but were unremittingly harsh in their 
condemnation of the government, calling for additional 
sanctions.  Aung San Suu Kyi was more measured in her 
comments but was still "bitterly disappointed" by the 
government's delays in releasing political prisoners and in 
opening a meaningful political dialogue on constitutional 
issues.  Nevertheless, she reportedly endorsed continued 
humanitarian assistance for Burma and told the EU troika that 
they "must support UNDP" in its operations in Burma. 
 
4. (C) Foreign observers were focused on the economy.  ASEAN 
Ambassadors painted a bleak picture, with some suggesting 
that economic hardships could lead to social unrest.  The 
Chinese Ambassador, surprisingly, endorsed this view, 
emphasizing what he saw as an essential need for financial 
reform.  UN and INGO heads, finally, lamented the 
difficulties of work in Burma and showed some discomfort with 
the current need for dual accountability: to both the 
government and Aung San Suu Kyi. While they admitted the 
political necessity of talking to both the government and the 
opposition, every contact they made with one side, they said, 
cost them with the other. That, however, was just life in 
Burma. 
 
5. (C) The troika did not see Secretary 1 Khin Nyunt, who was 
apparently detained in Monywa.  The British are not sure how 
to interpret this.  On the one hand, they believe Khin Nyunt 
wanted the troika visit to take place, having overruled 
Foreign Minister Win Aung, who sought to have the visit 
delayed.  On the other hand, Khin Nyunt has been known to 
duck meetings that promise to be difficult, as this one would 
have been. If that was the case this time, then the delays in 
Monywa may just have been a convenient excuse. 
 
6. (C) In any case, the Troika came away from this visit with 
little to use in recommending any changes in the EU's common 
position on Burma. They will prepare a report that will be 
considered by a meeting of EU senior officials on October 11, 
but, barring some dramatic changes here between now and then, 
it is hardly likely that the EU will alter its position in 
any significant way. 
 
Comment 
 
7. (C) The EU mission caught the mood of the day in Burma. 
Foreign missions are anxious about the deteriorating economic 
conditions, while domestic political actors are disappointed 
by the lack of meaningful dialogue between the government and 
Aung San Suu Kyi.  While there is nothing unusual about this 
-- political despair and economic anxiety are almost chronic 
conditions in Rangoon -- nevertheless, the reports the Troika 
received during this visit will leave them with little 
latitude in regard to policy recommendations. So far as we 
can see (and barring any dramatic developments over the next 
few weeks), Burma will have to live with the EU's common 
position as it is right now. End Comment. 
McMullen