US embassy cable - 05BOGOTA6891

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BOGOTA 006891 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/21/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, CO, VE, BL 
SUBJECT: SERPA ON 2006 ELECTIONS, BILATERAL RELATIONS, AND 
VENEZUELA 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood, Reasons: 1.4 B & D. 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Ambassador and Liberal Party Presidential 
nominee hopeful Horacio Serpa discussed national politics at 
breakfast on July 12.  Serpa said under a reelection 
scenario, President Uribe would win easily.  He hoped for a 
grand left/center-left coalition against Uribe in the first 
round, but was uncertain if Liberal Party President Cesar 
Gaviria was open to such an option.  On extradition, Serpa 
supported it for "pure drug traffickers" but believed a 
cut-out was needed for paramilitaries who trafficked drugs 
solely to finance activities to combat the guerrillas.  On 
U.S. assistance to Colombia, Serpa said more of the total 
should be focused on socioeconomic development, citing a lack 
of economic opportunity for the middle class.  Describing his 
most recent meeting with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, 
Serpa expressed concern over Chavez's control of all 
institutions in Venezuela and his sense of conviction of 
purpose.  On July 17, Serpa announced his formal run for the 
Party's Presidential nomination.  End Summary. 
 
2006 Presidential Election 
-------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Ambassador met for two hours over breakfast on July 
12 with 2002 Officialist Liberal Party (PLC) Presidential 
nominee and former OAS Ambassador Horacio Serpa.  Serpa 
described the political scene as full of uncertainty as 
everyone waited for a decision from the Constitutional Court 
over whether President Uribe could run for reelection.  He 
was strongly against reelection in Colombia (for Uribe or any 
other individual) based on the weakness of institutions and 
potential for dictatorial rule.  Serpa also noted that 
Colombia's 1991 Constituent Assembly and resulting 
Constitution were strongly anti-reelection.  Serpa believed 
the Constitutional Court could conceivably rule to permit 
reelection but not consecutively, effectively shutting Uribe 
out of the 2006 contest.  If Uribe is permitted to run, 
according to Serpa, he would win.  The only hope, albeit a 
slim one, for the opposition, he said, was for left and 
center-left forces -- including the PLC and the Polo 
Democratico (PDI) -- to unite in a coalition for the first 
round of Presidential voting in May.  (Note: Colombia's 
system includes a second round run-off if no candidate 
receives 50 percent in the first round.  End Note.)  He hoped 
such a coalition could mobilize "social groups," including 
teachers and retirees, whom he termed as generally 
anti-Uribe. 
 
Extradition 
----------- 
 
4.  (C) Ambassador inquired as to Serpa's views on 
extradition.  Serpa expressed strong support for extradition 
of major drug traffickers to the U.S.  He suggested the need 
for an exception, however, for paramilitaries who trafficked 
in order to finance AUC actions to combat the FARC and ELN. 
Serpa did, however, stress that individuals such as "Don 
Berna" should remain in the extradition pipeline. 
 
U.S. Assistance 
--------------- 
 
5.  (C) Ambassador solicited Serpa's view on U.S. assistance 
to Colombia and its efficacy.  Serpa agreed on the need to 
focus assistance on counterterrorism, counternarcotics, and 
socioeconomic activity.  He believed, however, that the 
socioeconomic side needed to be much larger.  Turning to 
Uribe's Democratic Security Policy, Serpa agreed it had been 
successful, but nevertheless cautioned that the only way to 
solve the illegal armed group (IAG) problem in Colombia was 
to provide lower and middle classes with economic and 
educational opportunities. 
 
Chavez and Morales 
------------------ 
 
6.  (C) Serpa stated he last met with Hugo Chavez two months 
ago in Caracas.  He expressed concern over the extent to 
which Chavez has exerted control over all areas of government 
in the country.  He noted that Chavez continues to exude 
confidence in his plan of action.  Addressing rumors that 
Chavez planned to fund leftist political campaigns in 
Colombia, Serpa dismissed the possibility, stating that in 
the end campaigns in Colombia were cheap in relative terms. 
In addition, the Colombian public would react very negatively 
to any evidence of such financing.  Regarding Evo Morales in 
Bolivia, Serpa described him as evasive and "strange."  Serpa 
indicated it is difficult to dialogue with Morales, who is 
reluctant to look anyone in the eyes in a conversation. 
WOOD