US embassy cable - 05CARACAS2201

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 002201 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
HQ SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/11/2015 
TAGS: PREL, KDEM, VE 
SUBJECT: CAPEL TO AUDIT VENEZUELA'S ELECTORAL REGISTER 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for 
reason 1.4 (d) 
 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.    (C) Venezuela's National Electoral Council (CNE) 
commissioned the Costa Rica-based Center for Electoral 
Promotion and Assistance (CAPEL) in late June to perform an 
audit of the Electoral Register.  The CNE is relying on 
CAPEL, an organization affiliated with the Inter-American 
Institute of Human Rights, to declare the Electoral Register 
legitimate and transparent.  Opponents of President Hugo 
Chavez, including the NGO Sumate, have questioned CAPEL's 
independence from the CNE and the methodology and extent of 
its audit.  The CNE is also attempting to incorporate 
national election observation network OJO Electoral in the 
audit of the Electoral Register, while Sumate presses its 
campaign of individual challenges of irregularities in the 
Register.  End Summary. 
 
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CAPEL AUDIT AND METHODOLOGY 
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2.    (C) An organization affiliated with the Inter-American 
Institute of Human Rights, the Costa Rica-based Center for 
Electoral Promotion and Assistance (CAPEL) provides technical 
assistance to electoral bodies in the hemisphere.  CAPEL 
submitted the proposal for an audit of Venezuela's Electoral 
Register in late June, and Venezuela's National Electoral 
Council (CNE) accepted the proposal to sign what "appears to 
be" a multimillion dollar contract, according to OJO 
Electoral report given to PolCouns.  To perform the audit, 
CAPEL will rely primarily on CNE officials, expertise and 
access.  CAPEL has privately submitted the technical plan of 
the audit to the CNE.  Scheduled to begin in late August and 
finish at the end of September, the six-week audit will have 
two parts.  First, CAPEL will conduct interviews throughout 
the country.  Next, the voter base will be audited for the 
deceased, prisoners, and people with other irregularities. 
The sample will consist of 1% of the electoral base, which 
corresponds to over 70,000 people.  The results of the audit 
will include suggested reforms for the CNE to improve the 
electoral system. 
 
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METHODOLOGY AND CRITICISM OF THE AUDIT 
-------------------------------------- 
 
3.   (C) Opposition leaders have criticized CAPEL for its 
direct connection to the CNE.  Sumate spokespersons have 
called CAPEL an agent of the CNE, arguing that its audit 
should not be a substitute for a public audit, according to 
press.  They argue that the CNE must still release a complete 
Electoral Register so that public groups can perform external 
audits.  The opposition has urged CAPEL to make its results 
public, but CAPEL has refused to submit them to anyone but 
the CNE, which has agreed that it will release them later to 
the public. 
 
4.    (C) Opposition leaders emphasize the need for CAPEL to 
not audit merely the Register, but also the Department of 
Immigration (Onidex), in particular by investigating its 
issuance of identity documents to millions in 2004 through 
Chavez' "Identity Mission."  (Note: According to the 
technical proposal for the audit given to PolCouns, though it 
has not yet been made public, CAPEL will audit Onidex's 
issuance of identity documents through the Identity Mission.) 
 Critics of the plan to audit 1% of the voter base call for a 
3-5% sample, which CAPEL says is unfeasible.  National 
Democratic Institute (NDI) contacts told Poloff that the CNE 
will have an incentive to implement some of the reforms the 
CAPEL audit produces, if no more than to create a more 
favorable public and international image.  Even with a 
late-September release date, NDI said that significant 
reforms probably will not be implemented before the December 
legislative elections. 
 
5.    (U) The Organic Law of Suffrage and Political 
Participation (LOSPP) requires the CNE to release the 
Register to political parties or other groups at their 
request.  The opposition claims the CNE has failed to release 
the complete Electoral Register because it lacks voter 
addresses and dates of birth.  They argue the CNE has 
released only names and identity card numbers, even though 
the LOSPP states that the Register should also include dates 
of birth, residences, and voting center information. 
 
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ROLE OF THE OJO 
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6.    (C) In an attempt to counter criticism, the CNE has 
announced it is developing roles for political parties and 
NGOs to play in the CAPEL audit.  On 15 June, domestic 
observation group OJO Electoral accepted the CNE's offer to 
perform a particular role in the CAPEL audit.  OJO plans to 
use the opportunity to build its national observation network 
in preparation for subsequent elections.  The group will 
perform a special study of the Electoral Register, which will 
be complementary to the CAPEL audit.  OJO has negotiated with 
the CNE to access the whole Electoral Register database.  If 
access is blocked at any point, OJO plans to walk away from 
the process, according to OJO report given to PolCouns.  OJO 
will use NDI for "back-up" technical assistance. 
 
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COMMENT 
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7.    (C) The CNE is probably wagering that the results of 
CAPEL's audit will make their guarantee of transparency in 
future elections appear legitimate.  However, the CAPEL audit 
will offer too little, too late.  The audit will not be 
complete by the August 7 elections.  By the time any 
meaningful reforms are implemented, by 2006 presidential 
elections at best, they are not likely to be of any value to 
Chavez's competitors.  With a 4-1 majority of pro-GOV 
rectors, the CNE has been a means for the GOV to increase its 
control over the electoral system.  Although CAPEL has 
reported no problems receiving the necessary information, its 
reliance on the Pro-Chavez CNE, its prohibiiton from 
publicizing results, and its long timeline for completing the 
project will not convince the anti-Chavez part of the 
electorate to expect fair elections. 
Brownfield 
 
 
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      2005CARACA02201 - CONFIDENTIAL