US embassy cable - 05SOFIA1325

C O N F I D E N T I A L SOFIA 001325 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/22/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, BU 
SUBJECT: COALITION TALKS FAIL: SOCIALISTS PREPARE WEAKER 
ALTERNATIVE 
 
Classified By: JEFFREY D. LEVINE FOR REASONS 1.4 B&D 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY.  High-stakes coalition talks between the 
Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) and that of outgoing PM 
Simeon Saxe-Coburg Gotha collapsed July 22 with the Simeon 
Movement (NMSS) announcing it would not participate in a 
BSP-led government.  The Socialists, who won a small 
plurality in the June 25 elections, have spent nearly a month 
trying to coax the defeated Simeon Movement into a 
three-party coalition, seen by many as the best option for 
Bulgaria,s political stability and timely EU accession.  The 
Socialists have told us they will now propose a two-party 
coalition with the predominantly-Turkish Movement for Rights 
and Freedom (MRF) before their mandate expires on July 25. 
The proposed government, however, would require support from 
minor parties or individual MPs in order to be approved. 
Parliament is scheduled to vote on the new government July 
26. END SUMMARY 
 
SOCIALISTS TO RESORT TO PLAN B 
 
2. (C)  As coalition talks intensified over the past week, 
insiders from both parties grew increasingly hopeful that 
agreement could be reached.  Despite significant political 
and personal differences, most analysts agreed a BSP-NMSS 
partnership would offer a more stable government, capable of 
leading Bulgaria into the European Union.  The NMSS decision 
to go into opposition, however, ended the BSP's hopes for a 
broad coalition government and will force the BSP to use its 
back-up plan.  The BSP and MRF together control only 116 
seats in the 240-seat parliament.  Socialist leaders tell us 
they have secured enough votes to achieve a majority relying 
on individual MP,s from other parties.  In addition, the BSP 
may seek support from the center-right Bulgarian People's 
Union, led by former Sofia Mayor Stefan Sofianski, for a 
secret vote to approve the government.  A secret vote would 
 
SIPDIS 
allow for more deal-making and offer a conducive atmosphere 
for breaking Party ranks. 
 
3. (C) BSP leader and Prime-Minister designate Sergei 
Stanishev told the Charge he had offered numerous compromises 
with the NMSS but was unable to satisfy their 
frequently-changing demands.  He laid part of the blame on 
current NMSS ministers who could not accept giving up their 
posts.  He, like his NMSS counterparts, agreed that the 
three-party coalition would have better served Bulgaria. 
 
SIMEON TO BECOME OPPOSITION LEADER 
 
4. (C) NMSS leaders told us the reasons for the rupture, 
which came just a day after intra-party negotiations reached 
agreement on the distribution of cabinet positions, were both 
psychological and substantive.  Throughout the negotiations, 
members of Simeon,s negotiating team told us the BSP was not 
treating them as a serious partner nor was Simeon personally 
given the respect he deserved.  The presence of the MRF - 
their current coalition partners with which they have very 
strained relations - was also a major point of contention. 
BSP leader Sergei Stanishev told the Charge, that he "felt 
like a marriage counselor" when trying to resolve difference 
between the NMSS and the MRF.  The BSP, according to NMSS 
negotiations, also wanted political councils in some of the 
ministries to provide direction to the Minister - something 
the NMSS could not accept.  NMSS sources have told us that 
they have the money and resolve to hold out for an early 
election should BSP stumble in its efforts to prepare 
Bulgaria for EU entry in January 2007. 
 
5. (C) COMMENT: If events follow the proposed schedule, 
Parliament will be asked to approve what is in effect a 
minority government.  While the BSP thinks it has the votes, 
its approval cannot be taken for granted.  More important 
however is whether such a weak coalition will be able to 
undertake the necessary heavy-lifting to pass the serious 
legislation required for EU entry.  From our perspective, the 
departure of the NMSS means an even larger number of unknown 
and/or inexperienced ministers.  While the BSP leadership has 
been open and accessible to us since the election, our NMSS 
relationship would have been useful in pursuing US interests. 
 An NMSS presence would also have made abrupt changes in the 
Government,s Iraqi policy more unlikely.  END COMMENT