US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI5685

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 005685 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/22/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, KNNP, IN, Indian Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: MONSOON SESSION OF PARLIAMENT LIKELY TO BE LESS 
RAUCOUS, LESS PRODUCTIVE, WITH LEFT LEADING THE OPPOSITION 
 
Classified By: polcouns Geoff Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Although it leads the opposition, the BJP 
is in disarray and largely incapable of playing a strong role 
in the upcoming Parliamentary session scheduled for July 
25-August 26.  The Left Front (LF) is determined to fill the 
vacuum and will act more like an opposition party than an 
ally of the UPA.  The recently-concluded visit by PM Manmohan 
Singh to Washington will provide the LF with plenty of 
ammunition and could liven up what would otherwise be a 
lackluster session, with debate focusing much more on foreign 
affairs than is normally the case.  The Communists are 
increasingly angry at what they view as "undemocratic" 
behavior by Congress and particularly PM Manmohan Singh, and 
are set to argue that the UPA government deserves to be 
flayed for failure to brief the LF, the non-Congress UPA 
parties and Parliament on the US-India nuclear understanding 
before the PM departed for Washington.  If the LF performs 
well on the floor of Parliament, it could give Congress 
reason to move more cautiously in implementing its side of 
the US/Indian agenda even as the UPA government eventually 
prevails.  End Summary 
 
Monsoon Session Soon Underway 
----------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) India's Parliament will convene July 25 and conclude 
its "Monsoon Session" on August 26.  The UPA government has 
been intensely focused on the Prime Minister's just-concluded 
trip to Washington and has given little indication as to what 
major initiatives it intends to pursue during the session. 
The opposition BJP and UPA allies on the left both plan to 
use the session to attack the UPA. 
 
With the Left Leading the Charge 
-------------------------------- 
 
3.  (U) The Left Front (LF) leadership will meet in New Delhi 
on July 25 to map out its strategy.  The July 21 statement of 
the politburos of the Communist Party of India (CPI) and the 
Communist Party of India (Marxist) indicated how the two 
parties would attempt to shape parliamentary debate.  The 
statement criticized the UPA for "undemocratic practices" by 
entering into major agreements with the US during the PM's 
Washington visit without "adequate discussions" with the 
Left, UPA partners or Parliament. 
 
4.  (U) Characterizing the Joint Statement signed in 
Washington as "a universal reversal of India's earlier 
nuclear policy," the CPI secretariat noted that the UPA made 
the agreement without any Parliamentary discussion, "whereas 
the US would have to seek agreement from its Congress." The 
communists further accused the UPA of "not taking the nation 
into confidence before entering into an understanding with 
the US on matters of vital national interest."  The CPI 
pledged that it "cannot accept such arbitrary functioning by 
the UPA government," and pledged that it would "register its 
principled opposition to this joint statement and related 
agreements inside Parliament." 
 
5.  (C) On July 22, Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) head 
Abani Roy told us that there is growing anger within the Left 
ranks at Congress, and that it is particularly focused on PM 
Singh.  Roy maintained that the Prime Minister views the LF 
with undisguised hostility and is deliberately cutting it out 
of policy making. Roy hinted that Singh's behavior would be a 
principal focus of the July 25 meeting, and that Left anger 
would spill over onto the floor of Parliament (Post will 
address Left developments Septel). 
 
And the BJP Opposition Playing Second Fiddle 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
6.  (U) Parliamentary Speaker Somnath Chatterjee hosted the 
BJP leadership including former PM Vajpayee, Party President 
LK Advani and VK Malhotra, on July 20.  The BJP assured 
Chatterjee that the party would not "boycott" the session as 
it is intent on raising a number of issues, including the 
Supreme Court repeal of the Illegal Migrants Act, recent 
terrorist attacks in Ayodhya and Kashmir, and "the Prime 
Minister's praise for British imperialism" while at Oxford. 
The BJP leaders reminded the Speaker that they were the 
leading opposition party and requested that "the left parties 
not be accommodated in the Opposition space." 
 
7.  (U) Party Leader Pramod Mahajan claimed on July 21 that 
the BJP would cause "turmoil" in Parliament over the UPA's 
recent decision to begin dismantling the Illegal Migrants 
Act.  The BJP had long supported the Act as a means of 
identifying and expelling illegal Bangladeshi (Muslim) 
immigrants from Assam.  Mahajan accused the UPA of conspiring 
to "appease the illegal migrants who have over the years 
emerged as the captive votebank of the Congress." 
 
US/India Relations Could Be at Center Stage 
------------------------------------------- 
 
8.  (U) In a July 21 Editorial in the "Hindu" columnist 
Harish Khare predicts that US/India relations could dominate 
what would otherwise be a lackluster session of Parliament. 
Khare agreed with the left parties that the UPA engineered a 
dramatic realignment in the bilateral relationship and that 
"domestic opinion has not been prepared for it."  He 
questions "whether India has committed itself to a political 
relationship closer than warranted by domestic public 
opinion," since "the national sentiment remains strangely 
reluctant to trust the US to wish this country well in the 
long run...and give the US the benefit of the doubt."  He 
argued that "no political leader can afford to overlook this 
simple fact." 
 
9.  (U) Khare pointed out that it would be a "mistake" to 
think that having the "strategic community" on board 
represented national acquiescence, in that it numbers no more 
"than one hundred individuals."  He predicts that MP's from 
across the spectrum will accuse the UPA of failure to take 
the Indian population into confidence before the PM's trip 
and try to compel the GOI to "explain the meaning, the cost, 
and the obligations of all the commitments made by both sides 
in Washington." Khare opined that a lively Parliamentary 
debate could provide elements within Congress to "invoke 
domestic public opinion to slow down Washington's demands." 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
10.  (C)  The BJP remains in complete disarray, as infighting 
between the RSS and moderates continues unabated (septel). 
This all but ensures that the party will be more quiescent 
during this session than it was previously, when it staged 
spectacular walkouts and disruptions.  With Advani immersed 
in a leadership struggle with the RSS, Vajpayee is now the 
closest thing to a BJP icon.  His July 20 statement 
criticizing the US/India nuclear energy framework will 
encourage other BJP MP's to make similar remarks during the 
Parliament session.  However, the LF will likely predominate 
and launch a calculated attack on various aspects of the PM's 
Washington trip, criticizing Congress for growing too close 
to the US and becoming increasingly "undemocratic."  With the 
BJP fading to the margins, the LF is behaving more and more 
like the opposition in Parliament.  Although we expect the PM 
eventually to prevail, the next few weeks promise to bring 
unusual attention to the GOI's US agenda. 
BLAKE