US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI5684

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 005684 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/21/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, PGOV, PHUM, IN, NP, India-Nepal 
SUBJECT: INDIAN OBSERVERS: TIME TO TURN UP PRESSURE ON 
NEPAL'S KING 
 
REF: A. KATHMANDU 1533 NOTAL 
     B. KATHMANDU 1548 
     C. NEW DELHI 5319 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Non-governmental Nepal-watchers in New Delhi 
remain pessimistic about the chances for a compromise between 
King Gyanendra and the Nepalese political parties.  Many say 
that the next 2-3 months will be crucial for a rapprochement, 
with a strong likelihood that the parties and Maoists will be 
driven together if the King does not reach out to the 
parties.  Our contacts with Left-leaning sympathies assert 
that the Maoists are interested in joining the political 
process, and suggest the time is ripe for the parties and 
international community to reach out to them.  However, 
Niranjan Koirala, the nephew of Nepali Congress leader GP 
Koirala, refutes the notion that the parties would ever agree 
to join forces with the Maoists, and holds out hope that the 
King will agree to reinstate the dismissed Parliament as an 
exit strategy from the present stalemate.  End Summary. 
 
Maoists Ready to Work with Parties 
---------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) SD Muni of Jawaharlal Nehru University, a leftist 
professor with excellent contacts with the Nepalese Maoists, 
told Poloff recently that the Maoists are ready for mediation 
to join a political process, arguing that their sincerity can 
only be tested by reaching out to include them.  Muni claimed 
that the GOI too is coming around to the view that the 
Maoists should follow the lead of the parties in the face-off 
with the Palace, and that the parties should engage the 
Maoists.  If the two joined forces, he asserted, the King 
would be forced to concede on two key points: (1) civilian 
control of the Army; and (2) calling a constituent assembly. 
These two concessions would be sufficient for the Maoists to 
accept a multiparty democracy and even the continuance of the 
King as a titular monarch. 
 
3.  (C) The parties are ready to work with the Maoists in a 
political process, Muni continued.  They have told GP Koirala 
that in a movement against the monarchy, "you lead, and we 
will follow."  He asserted that Maoist leader Prachanda has 
demonstrated his bona fides by ordering his cadres to avoid 
attacking the parties, and allowing political party leaders 
to return unmolested to their villages.  When Poloff pushed 
back on this, noting that their actions do not indicate the 
Maoists are interested in abandoning violence (Ref B), Muni 
conceded that he could propose no test to distinguish an 
actual Maoist change of heart from a calculated ploy to gain 
power. 
 
3.  (C) MG (ret) Ashok Mehta agreed with Muni that the 
Maoists' stalemate against the RNA had made them receptive to 
talks.  He dismissed the announcement by the political 
parties that they would not negotiate with the Maoists until 
the insurgents had renounced violence as posturing, adding 
that the parties would talk with the Maoists at any time. 
However, he suggested the Maoist offer to talk to the parties 
was made in order to embarrass the King, and noted the Palace 
could prevent the talks by either outlawing the parties or 
physically barring the movement of their representatives. 
 
Koirala's Nephew: No Compromise 
------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) Strongly refuting the suggestion that the political 
parties would accept Maoist overtures to make a common front 
against the Palace, Niranjan Koirala declared that his uncle 
would never accept a deal until the Maoists verifiably 
disarmed (Ref B).  To do otherwise would be "suicidal," he 
added.  GP Koirala recognizes that it would be easy to start 
a mass movement against the monarchy, but once it started it 
would be difficult to control, and the Maoists could end up 
benefiting most.  Koirala speculated that in the event the 
Maoists did agree to disarm in the future, the UN or another 
outside party would need to oversee and verify the process to 
ensure compliance.  India's consent to outside involvement 
would be essential, he conceded. 
 
5.  (C) Some within the parties do want to join the Maoists 
and have welcomed the Maoist overtures, Koirala admitted. 
The younger cadres in most of the major parties are more 
radical and opposed to monarchy.  Koirala accused the GOI of 
"manipulating the Maoists" in an attempt to bring about a 
political process to end the insurgency (Ref A), but warned 
that the King has agents in the Maoist hierarchy as well, and 
could use his own agents to block any actions that appear to 
bring the parties and Maoists closer.  Muni accused the RNA 
of committing massacres while disguised as Maoist cadres in 
order to prevent the parties from trusting the Maoists. 
 
King Needs to See Reality 
------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) Muni, Mehta, and Koirala all emphasized to Poloff 
that King Gyanendra has not accepted the need to bring the 
parties into a compromise.  He believes that the RNA has made 
progress in battling the Maoists since February 1, and that 
life in Nepal is returning to normal.  However, Mehta pointed 
out, the King has nothing to show for six months of direct 
rule.  "Someone needs to disabuse him of the idea that he can 
retain absolute power," Mehta declared, suggesting that only 
a joint approach by the US, UK, India, and possibly the EU at 
the foreign minister level would convey the message to the 
King through the sycophants surrounding him. 
 
7.  (C) Koirala warned that although Kathmandu appears 
peaceful, the tranquility is superficial.  The King has 
damaged the institution of monarchy in the minds of the 
people, and 70% of the population opposes the King, Koirala 
claimed.  The population is frustrated with the King, and a 
small spark could set off a widespread agitation.  Mehta 
agreed that after 2-3 months, frustration could build to the 
point of a mass march on the palace to demand concessions 
from the King as occurred in 1990. 
 
Reinstating Parliament Would Help Defeat Maoists 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
8.  (C) Koirala repeatedly stressed the (self-serving) 
argument that reinstating Parliament would be the most 
successful way out of the stalemate.  Only Parliament has the 
confidence of a wide base of people to be trusted as an 
institution, he claimed, as the King's arbitrary actions have 
damaged all other national institutions.  If the Parliament 
controlled the RNA, it would easily defeat the Maoists, 
Koirala asserted, by marshalling its own party cadres 
alongside the RNA in rural areas to root out Maoist 
insurgents.  He suggested the King might be able save face 
while recalling the Parliament by pointing to changed 
circumstances making reinstatement appropriate. 
 
Comment: Time for a Stronger Approach? 
-------------------------------------- 
 
9.  (C) Our GOI interlocutors and contacts with connections 
to the Nepalese political class, Maoists, and Palace are in 
near universal agreement that the next few months are crucial 
to resolving the stalemate between the Palace and the 
political parties.  U/S Burns told the press in Washington 
that the President and PM Manmohan Singh agreed that the King 
needs to restore civil liberties, and reach out to the 
parties.  Building on this, we should discuss with the GOI 
what additional actions we can take together to induce the 
King to include the parties in a political dialogue leading 
to representative government. 
BLAKE