US embassy cable - 02HARARE2087

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 002087 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, ASEC, ZI 
SUBJECT: NATIONWIDE LOCAL ELECTIONS A DEMOCRATIC CHARADE 
 
 
Classified By: political section chief Matt Harrington.  Reasons: 1.5 ( 
B) and (D). 
 
1.  (U) Action request -- see para 10. 
 
Summary 
-------- 
 
2.  (C)  Nationwide rural council elections are scheduled for 
September 28-29, and the Government of Zimbabwe has used all 
the means at its disposal to block genuine competition from 
the opposition MDC.  Aspiring MDC candidates have been 
arrested on frivolous charges, assaulted, forced to flee 
their residences, and subjected to unfair nomination 
requirements.  As a result, the MDC has been able to field 
only 646 candidates for more than 1400 contested seats.  The 
MDC is seeking a judicial order to delay the elections, 
citing the widespread physical abuse and procedural 
manipulation.  The government has used every trick in the 
book to block nomination of MDC candidates, while claiming in 
its media mouthpieces that the MDC's failure to nominate 
candidates is evidence of the party's declining popularity. 
This outrageous process has descended to the level of low 
farce, and the Department may wish to consider issuing a 
statement critical of the Government's ongoing efforts to 
subvert democracy so brazenly.  End Summary. 
 
Local council elections -- when, what, and where 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
3.  (U) Elections for 1438 rural council seats nationwide 
will be held September 28-29.  Rural councils do not have a 
great deal of authority in Zimbabwe's centralized system of 
governance.  They do collect some funds via assessment of 
"development levies" and manage small amounts of resources at 
the local level.  The primary significance of the elections, 
however, is the political message that will be sent by the 
outcome.  The ruling party is determined to demonstrate that 
it continues to have rural areas locked down.  For its part, 
the MDC will want to show some penetration of ZANU-PF's 
traditional geographic stronghold. 
 
Violence and harrassment 
------------------------ 
 
4. (U) According to a September 3 press statement issued by 
MDC Elections Director Paul Themba-Nyathi, more than 20 
aspiring MDC councillors have been "assaulted, harassed, and 
tortured" in the run-up to the council elections.  In one 
incident, the party's deputy organizing secretary for 
Midlands South, Anthony Chamahwinya, was hospitalized after a 
severe beating at the hands of ZANU-PF supporters on 
September 1.  At the time of the attack, Chamahwinya 
reportedly was distributing nomination papers for his party's 
prospective candidates.  An MDC candidate in Mount Darwin 
south, in Mashonaland Central province, was abducted by 
alleged members of ZANU-PF's youth militia and has not been 
seen since.  Some candidates have withdrawn from the race in 
the face of such intimidation, understandably fearing for 
their lives.  36 candidates in Midlands South have pulled 
out, while 10 have abandoned races in Masvingo province.  In 
addition, according to Themba-Nyathi, more than 70 MDC 
candidates and key party officials involved in the campaign 
have been arrested on trumped-up charges, mostly in 
Manicaland and Mashonaland Central provinces.  An unspecified 
number of candidates and party officials have been forced to 
flee their homes, while those who have braved the threats of 
violence are finding it difficult, if not impossible, to 
campaign openly.  According to press reports, 63 MDC 
candidates in Manicaland have withdrawn from the race, citing 
assaults and intimidation. 
 
Nomination skulduggery 
---------------------- 
 
5.  (U) Election officials have also erected significant 
obstacles in the candidate registration process itself. 
Large numbers of MDC candidates have been disqualified on 
frivolous grounds, after they failed to present supporting 
documentation not required by Zimbabwean law.  (The "Rural 
District Councils Act" requires only that candidates prove 
they are Zimbabwean citizens, registered voters, and 
residents of the ward in which they are running.)  The most 
common tactic was to demand presentation of long birth 
certificates on September 5, the national day of nomination. 
Most Zimbabweans have a short-form birth certificate, and it 
takes several weeks to coax the longer, more detailed version 
out of the Registrar-General's office.  ZANU-PF candidates 
either were given adequate advance notice of this requirement 
or were not asked to comply.  In other cases, election 
officials demanded proof of tax payments, while access to the 
nomination court was blocked by war veterans and ZANU-PF 
supporters in several other instances.  Many nomination 
centers were moved from government offices to police 
stations, an effective intimidatory tactic given the role of 
the police in suppressing MDC supporters.  (Comment:  As the 
economy continues to decline and ZANU-PF's popularity erodes, 
the ruling party might use this tactic in future elections, 
simply manufacturing reasons to prevent the placement of MDC 
candidates on the ballot.  End Comment.) 
Government spin 
--------------- 
 
6.  (U) The ruling party's comprehensive "campaign" efforts 
have succeeded in ensuring that the MDC has been able to 
field candidates for only 646 seats, less than half the 
number being contested.  The Government-controlled media 
have, without any apparent sense of shame, heralded this 
development as a sign of the MDC's imminent demise. 
 
To boycott or not to boycott 
---------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) Some observers have urged the MDC to boycott the 
election, contending that the party's participation merely 
lends legitimacy to a deeply flawed process.  The entire 
party leadership, however, appears determined to go forward, 
no matter how flawed the process.  MDC Secretary-General 
Welshman Ncube told us the national executive had discussed 
the possibility of a boycott, but had decided in the end that 
the party owed it to those supporters and candidates who have 
put their lives on the line to participate.  The party's 
national elections coordinator insisted to us that a boycott 
was never seriously considered, and that participating 
demonstrates the party's commitment to achieving change 
through democratic means.   Political analyst John Makumbe 
said he had advised the MDC not to waste too much time and 
resources campaigning, but that contesting was important 
because the party had to "keep the fire burning."   David 
Coltart, a Member of Parliament and the MDC's Shadow Justice 
Minister, told us that the party is seeking a delay of the 
elections in the High Court, citing the array of 
irregularities to date, but he was not optimistic of a 
favorable ruling. 
 
Plans for Observation 
--------------------- 
 
8.  (C)  The Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN), a 
coalition of NGOs committed to guaranteeing the integrity of 
elections, plans to deploy observers for the rural council 
elections.  It has applied to the GOZ-appointed Electoral 
Supervisory Commission for accreditation of 5,000 observers, 
but expects to receive approval for only half that number, 
and at the very last minute.  Asked where he would recommend 
the Embassy send observers, ZESN Chairman Reginald 
Matchaba-Hove suggested Matabeleland, Manicaland, and 
Midlands, saying those provinces were the only ones in which 
the MDC had been able to field significant numbers of 
candidates. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
9.  (C) These elections are little more than a charade, as 
the ruling party has used almost every trick in the book to 
tilt the process overwhelmingly in its favor.  (The GOZ has 
clearly come to the conclusion that giving voters a choice 
when food supplies are dwindling might not produce a pleasing 
result.)  For that reason, we have no plans to mount a 
significant in-house observation effort, but likely will send 
several Embassy officers to cover constituencies that appear 
to be up-for-grabs.  We agree that the MDC ought to 
participate where it can, so that it continues to be 
perceived as a credible democratic alternative to an 
increasingly unpopular regime and because it stands the 
chance of picking up some seats in rural areas, particularly 
the MDC's stronghold of Matabeleland.  The MDC can portray 
any inroads it makes into rural areas, no matter how small, 
as evidence of expanding popular appeal. 
 
Action request 
-------------- 
 
10.  (C) Preparations for the rural council elections have 
gotten virtually no coverage from the international media, 
and the GOZ has taken advantage of this lack of scrutiny to 
make a mockery of the democratic process.  Shining the 
international spotlight on the violence and irregularities 
associated with the local elections could restrain some of 
the worst excesses by GOZ supporters and give cover to voters 
inclined to cast ballots for the MDC but who are currently 
scared to do so.  We recommend the Department: 
 
--consider issuing a public statement now expressing serious 
concern about the violence, intimidation, and range of 
irregularities witnessed to date, and urging the GOZ to 
facilitate the registration of all interested candidates.  We 
might want to tie a refusal to address our concerns to 
expansion of targeted sanctions, such as an announcement of 
asset seizure; 
 
--encourage regional governments to weigh in with the GOZ, 
stressing the importance of holding an election that is 
consistent with the SADC norms and standards; 
 
--issue a final statement after the election providing a 
judgment on whether it was free and fair.  Such an 
assessment, of course, will depend on whether the environment 
continues to be as destructive as it is now, and on the 
outcome. 
SULLIVAN