US embassy cable - 05MANAGUA2112

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 002112 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, SOCI, NU 
SUBJECT: ANNIVERSARY OF SANDINISTA REVOLUTION DRAWS A 
CROWD, BUT SO DOES ANTI-PACT MARCH 
 
REF: MANAGUA 1794 
 
1. (U) Summary: Sandinistas celebrated the 26th anniversary 
of the Sandinista Revolution on July 19 in Managua after 
civil society organizations held another march, this time in 
Granada, to protest the Liberal (PLC) and Sandinista (FSLN) 
political pact.  FSLN leader Daniel Ortega used the 
opportunity of the anniversary to attack his putative ally 
ex-President and PLC leader Arnoldo Aleman, try to discredit 
the civil society marches as elitist, and energize his party 
for the Presidential elections in 2006.  Though only Ortega 
and FSLN deputy Augustin Jarquin gave official remarks at the 
July 19 event, the press followed the antics of FSLN founder 
Tomas Borge, who had reportedly been excluded from the event, 
but appeared to take a front-row seat.  Though the 
Sandinistas proved that they could still draw a crowd despite 
the controversy generated by the pact with the PLC, their 
leader felt compelled to address the growing support of the 
anti-pact movement.  End Summary. 
 
ORTEGA ATTACKS ALEMAN AND BOLANOS, PREDICTS FSLN VICTORY 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
2. (SBU) Sandinista strongman Daniel Ortega took center stage 
at the celebration of the 26th anniversary of the Sandinista 
Revolution on July 19.  Despite his political alliance with 
the PLC, Ortega used the opportunity to attack ex-President 
Arnoldo Aleman, calling him a "thief" and saying "no one 
should think that cooperation with (Aleman and Bolanos) 
signifies abandonment of the struggle."  He also implied that 
Bolanos knew about and benefited from Aleman's misdeeds as 
Aleman's Vice President and subsequently as the Liberal 
presidential candidate.  (Comment: Ortega likely felt 
compelled to publicly distance himself from Aleman, given 
that his popularity rating has plummeted largely because of 
his association with the imprisoned ex-President.  Likewise, 
senior PLC members criticized Ortega during their July 11 
convention.  End Comment.) 
 
3. (U) Ortega attempted to discredit the recent civil society 
marches against the FSLN-PLC political pact (reftel and 
below) by indicating that the protesters were upper class 
Nicaraguans obeying the interests of President Bolanos, the 
mainstream press, "big money," and the USG.  He said that, 
although the marchers were "provoking class warfare," they 
"will not provoke the Sandinistas into a confrontation." 
 
4. (U) During his hour-long remarks, Ortega defended the 
embattled Supreme Electoral Council (CSE), the Nicaraguan 
electoral authority that has been accused of corruption and 
partisan behavior by many.  Ortega proclaimed that (Liberal) 
CSE president Roberto Rivas had done a good job and pointed 
out that Rivas had also been in charge when Aleman and 
Bolanos were elected.  He accused the "so-called democratic 
forces" of objecting to CSE behavior only when they don't 
agree with election results, such as the FSLN's landslide 
victory in the November 2004 municipal elections. 
 
5. (U) Ortega concluded his speech by claiming that the past 
15 years of Liberal governments have only "made the rich 
richer and the poor poorer."  He promised the Sandinista 
masses to resolve Nicaragua's problems after he is elected 
President in the November 2006 elections. 
 
TOMAS BORGE RETURNS FROM PERU TO APPEAR AT FESTIVITIES 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
6. (SBU) FSLN founder Tomas Borge defied rumors that he had 
been excluded from July 19 activities by 
mistress-of-ceremonies and Ortega concubine Rosario Murillo 
by returning from Peru, where he was visiting his estranged 
wife, to join in the fun.  Borge arrived late to a July 18 
mass officiated by Ortega confidant Cardinal Miguel Obando 
dressed in a Che Guevara shirt.  He took a seat in the front 
pew next to Ortega after receiving a chilly welcome from the 
Sandinista leader.  At the main gathering, Borge was 
relegated to a secondary stage reserved for "special guests." 
 He ignored the ushers and sat in the front row next to 
Managua mayor Dionisio Marenco, who promptly moved.  Later 
Borge told reporters, "I am a founder of the FSLN, they are 
mistaken if they think they can ignore me." 
 
7. (U) The only other official speaker at the July 19 event 
was FSLN National Assembly deputy Augustin Jarquin.  Jarquin 
echoed Ortega's optimism regarding the FSLN's chances in the 
next elections and brought up a Sandinista favorite -- the 
old judgment against the USG at The Hague for mining 
Nicaraguan harbors in the 1980s.  Some media outlets 
predicted that Jarquin's performance was engineered to set 
him up as Ortega's running mate on the FSLN/Convergencia 
ticket. 
 
8. (SBU) Other notable guests included Azul y Blanco deputy 
and ex-Contra negotiator Jaime Carazo, Obando sycophant 
Monsignor Eddy Montenegro, Father Hugo Chavez (representing 
the Archbishop of Managua, Leopoldo Brenes), and PLC deputies 
Eduardo Mena and Carlos Noguera.  (Note: Noguera earlier 
informed poloff that he would attend the July 19 activity to 
get a sense of the atmospherics and monitor the Sandinistas. 
End Note.)  In response to criticism that the Revolution 
anniversary had become an Ortega/Murillo family affair, their 
children and other relatives were kept off the stages and 
made to watch from the crowd. 
 
ANNIVERSARY DRAWS CROWD, BUT NOT ALL ARE "DANIELISTAS" 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
9. (U) Estimates of the number of people attending the July 
19 event ranged from 60,000 to 100,000, with some Sandinista 
sources claiming as many as 500,000.  Journalists, however, 
provided anecdotal examples that suggested that many of the 
partygoers were not "Danielistas" per se, though they still 
supported the FSLN.  Several Embassy FSNs also reported that 
they noticed less crowding and traffic than in previous years. 
 
ANTI-PACT MARCH IN GRANADA BUILDS MOMENTUM 
------------------------------------------ 
 
10. (U) Contrary to Ortega's claims, the July 17 Red Por 
Nicaragua-organized march in Granada drew protesters from all 
levels of Nicaraguan society.  The Granada march was the 
first in a planned series of anti-pacto marches to follow up 
on the June 16 march held in Managua (reftel).  The march 
drew a total of 15 to 20 thousand people, and the police 
estimated from vehicular traffic that 7 to 8 thousand people 
had come to Granada from other areas.  Despite vague threats 
from Sandinista partisans, the march took place peacefully. 
The widely respected Bishop of Granada, Bernard Hombach, 
praised the march as a "positive expression" and urged the 
political class to resolve the current crises between the 
powers of government.  Red Por Nicaragua organizers announced 
that the next march would be held in Chinandega. 
 
11. (U) One of poloff's contacts, a resident of Granada, said 
that he was very surprised to see so many people in the 
streets, as he expected that most would take advantage of the 
long weekend to take a vacation.  He noted that it was only 
the second time in his life to participate in a protest 
march, and he recognized many of his neighbors in the street 
-- people who had never done such a thing before.  He said it 
was very uncharacteristic of the conservative citizens of 
Granada to take to the streets and was excited and optimistic 
to see so many people turn out against the PLC-FSLN pact. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
12. (SBU) While the July 19 celebrations made it clear that 
the FSLN can still bring out the masses, the Red Por 
Nicaragua marches have also proven that the Sandinistas no 
longer "own the streets."  The protest activities compelled 
Ortega to respond, and revert to form, labeling anyone who 
does not agree with him as an upper class elitist in league 
with the United States.  So far, fortunately, all of the 
gatherings have been largely peaceful, though certain 
personalities (such as dissident Sandinista Herty Lewites) 
have indicated that this could change if the pact does not 
give in to civil society's demands for a reformed CSE. 
BRENNAN