US embassy cable - 05CAIRO5592

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 005592 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/21/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, EG 
SUBJECT: EGYPT: DEVELOPMENTS IN THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE 
 
REF: A. CAIRO 5272 
 
     B. CAIRO 5084 
     C. CAIRO 3424 
     D. CAIRO 2536 
 
Classified by Acting DCM Michael Corbin for reasons 1.4 (b) 
and (d). 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
1. (C) Egypt's leftist Tagammu' Party, which holds six seats 
in the People's Assembly, announced on July 19 that it would 
not field Khalid Mohieldin, or any other candidate, in 
Egypt's first competitive presidential election, anticipated, 
though not yet formally announced, for September 7.  A 
spokesman for the Kifaya protest movement subsequently told 
the media his group would call for an all-out boycott of the 
presidential poll.  Prominent dissident Saad Eddin Ibrahim 
(SEI) and feminist author Nawal Saadawi also recently 
announced that they were abandoning their symbolic 
candidacies.  Meanwhile, Ghad Party leader Ayman Nour is 
moving forward with his own campaign, as are several 
decidedly marginal candidates.  Safwat Sherif, 
Secretary-General of the ruling NDP, told the press on July 
 
SIPDIS 
20 that President Mubarak would not announce his decision on 
whether to run for another six year term until after the 
commission begins accepting official candidate applications, 
sometime after July 24.  The impact of the withdrawal of 
candidates Mohieldin, SEI, and Saadawi is more symbolic than 
practical, but highlights the dearth of credible contenders 
in this year's presidential race.  The resonance of Kifaya's 
call for an all-out boycott has yet to be determined, but 
reflects the depth of alienation and distrust of the GOE 
among many in Egypt's opposition.  Only by taking early and 
concrete steps to demonstrate commitment to the integrity of 
this year's electoral process can the GOE hope to counter the 
skeptics and convince the doubtful among Egypt's voters to 
participate in the September presidential poll.  End summary. 
 
------------------ 
Tagammu' Pulls Out 
------------------ 
 
2. (C) After months of vacillation, Egypt's leftist Tagammu' 
Party announced on July 19 that it would not field Honorary 
Chairman Khalid Mohieldin as a presidential candidate. 
Mohieldin is a nationally respected figure, best known for 
his role as one of the "free officers" who conspired with 
Gamal Abdel Nasser to depose King Farouk in 1952.  Though 
respected, Mohieldin is 84 and in frail health and his old 
school leftist politics put him out of step with most of the 
nation.  Announcing Tagammu's decision at a July 18 press 
conference, party leader Rif'at Said stated that the party's 
decision reflected its doubts that the GOE intended to 
provide for a free, fair, and transparent election. 
Repeating a line he had used earlier in the year, Said said 
that the party did not want to be "bit actors" in a scripted 
play. 
 
3. (C) Although Said told reporters that the party would 
"boycott" the presidential election, his use of the term 
referred to the party's intention not to field a candidate 
and did not constitute a call on party members not to vote. 
Said held open the possibility that the Tagammu' might 
endorse a presidential candidate from the opposition Wafd or 
Nasserist parties, with which it regularly coordinates 
statements and positions.  However, most observers believe 
Wafd and the Nasserists, themselves lacking strong 
candidates, will also sit out the race. 
 
------------------------ 
Kifaya Calls for Boycott 
------------------------ 
 
4. (C) Though Tagammu's Said stopped short of urging party 
supporters not to vote in the presidential election, George 
Ishaq, a leader of the Kifaya protest movement (ref A), went 
further on July 20, telling reporters that it was a "national 
duty" not to vote.  Ishaq told the British Guardian newspaper 
he hoped to see "a popular movement against President 
Mubarak...as well as political corruption and the regime's 
failure at all levels."  Explaining the call for the boycott, 
Ishaq said that citizens' participation would make them 
accomplices in a disingenuous GOE attempt to present the 
contest as a genuinely competitive democratic process.  In a 
July 21 conversation, Abul Ela Madi, a founding member of 
Kifaya, confirmed to poloff that the call for a boycott was 
an official Kifaya position. 
 
------------------------------------- 
SEI, Saadawi End Symbolic Candidacies 
------------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) Prominent democracy advocate Saad Eddin Ibrahim (SEI) 
and controversial feminist author Nawal Saadawi announced on 
July 18 and 19 respectively that they were withdrawing their 
bids for the presidency.  Neither SEI nor Saadawi are 
affiliated with political parties and neither stood any 
chance of obtaining the 250 endorsements from elected members 
of the legislature required to stand as independent 
candidates.  SEI, who announced his intent to run in the fall 
of 2004, has been open about the symbolic nature of his 
candidacy but took credit in a conversation with the Guardian 
for "breaking the wall of fear" and encouraging others to 
challenge Mubarak.  Though acquitted and vindicated by 
Egypt's Supreme Court in 2003, SEI's national standing has 
never recovered from the media's campaigns against him, 
particularly in several yellow tabloids, where he has been 
portrayed as a craven traitor who sold his services as an 
agent-provocateur to the U.S. and Israel.  Saadawi, whose 
Marxist-feminist writings previously prompted lawsuits from 
Islamists who described her as an atheist and apostate, has 
no constituency in Egypt outside of a tiny circle of leftist 
intellectuals. 
 
---------------- 
Left in the Race 
---------------- 
 
6. (C) Ghad Party leader Ayman Nour, whose criminal forgery 
trial is adjourned until September 25 (ref B), remains in the 
race.  In recent comments to the media, he joined criticism 
of the GOE's selection of September 7 as the date for the 
presidential election, asserting the GOE was deliberately 
allowing opponents as little time as possible to prepare and 
compete.  Nour has also long maintained that the criminal 
case against him had been manufactured by the GOE in order to 
sabotage his political career and undermine him as an 
opponent.  While the adjournment of the trial until after the 
presidential election effectively freed Nour up to run his 
presidential campaign, many of his supporters complained that 
the pending charges left him and his campaign hobbled by 
uncertainty. 
 
7. (C) Another candidates who has declared his intent to run 
is Talaat Sadat, a member of parliament and nephew of 
President Anwar Sadat.  Sadat claims he would be the 
candidate of the Liberal Party, but party officials have 
reportedly disavowed him.  Sadat appears to enjoy little if 
any public support.  The very obscure Afaf Zayyat of the 
Social Solidarity Party, Fawzy Ghazzal of the Egypt 2000 
Party, and the 90 year old Ahmad Sabahy of the Umma Party are 
all reportedly preparing to enter the race. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
Mubarak Announcement Linked to Registration Process 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
8. (C) The Presidential Elections Commission, the ten-member 
body charged with overseeing the election, will announce on 
July 24 the dates candidates may present their applications 
for registration for the race.  The commission will review 
candidate applications to confirm that they qualify under the 
new Presidential Elections Law (either as nominees of parties 
recognized before May 2005 or as independents who have 
secured no less than 250 endorsements from elected members of 
national and provincial legislatures -- a threshold no 
candidate is expected to cross this year). 
 
9. (C) In remarks to the media on July 20, Safwat Sherif, 
Secretary-General of the ruling National Democratic Party, 
 
SIPDIS 
said that President Mubarak will announce his decision on 
whether or not he will seek a fifth six-year term "at the 
time he deems appropriate" but not before the presidential 
elections commission sets the date for candidates to put 
forward their applications.  Though no official announcement 
has yet been made, all expect Mubarak to run again. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
10. (C) The impact of the withdrawal of candidates Mohieldin, 
SEI, and Saadawi is more symbolic than practical.  None would 
have posed a serious electoral challenge to Mubarak, indeed 
only Mohieldin, as honorary chairman of the Tagammu' Party, 
would have legally qualified to run.  Their withdrawals 
nonetheless highlight the dearth of credible contenders in 
this year's presidential race (ref D).  Of remaining 
candidates, the Ghad Party leader is the clear standout, with 
national name recognition and a small but committed core of 
activists and capable political operatives in his camp. 
Nour's name recognition cuts both ways, as many only know him 
based on unflattering media accounts of his arrest and trial 
on forgery charges.  The resonance of Kifaya's call for an 
all-out boycott has yet to be determined.  As discussed in 
ref A, Kifaya has proven a durable but small and eclectic 
grouping of activists united by their opposition to the 
Mubarak regime.  While its active cadres are relatively few 
in number, Kifaya's anti-regime slogans, focusing on alleged 
GOE corruption, autocracy, and mismanagment, have resonated 
with the public.  The group's call to boycott the 
presidential poll, rather than support Mubarak opponents, 
reflects the depth of alienation and distrust of the GOE 
among many in Egypt's political opposition. 
 
11. (C) Only by taking public steps to demonstrate that the 
GOE is committed to the integrity of the electoral process 
can the GOE hope to counter the skeptics who are trying to 
persuade the larger population not to participate in the 
September presidential poll.  The GOE's reaction to the calls 
for a boycott is difficult to gauge.  The old "red lines" in 
Egyptian politics are eroding.  There are certainly elements 
in the GOE who yearn for the old days when the likes of SEI 
and the Kifaya leadership would have been summarily locked up 
or worse, but others in the leadership appear to understand 
that the genie is out of the bottle and there can be no going 
back on political reform and democratic opening.  End comment. 
 
 
Visit Embassy Cairo's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/cairo 
 
You can also access this site through the 
State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. 
 
JONES