US embassy cable - 05WARSAW2887

C O N F I D E N T I A L  WARSAW 002887 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
EUR FOR A/S FRIED; NSC FOR DAMON WILSON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/12/2015 
TAGS: PREL, MARR, PGOV, ECON, PL, Polish Elections 
SUBJECT: EUR ASSISTANT SECRETARY FRIED LUNCH WITH LAW AND 
JUSTICE LEADER LECH KACZYNSKI 
 
Classified By: CDA, A.I., MARY T. CURTIN, FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) EUR A/S Dan Fried met July 11 for lunch with 
center-right Law and Justice (PiS) leader and presidential 
candidate, Lech Kaczynski.  They reviewed the bidding in the 
upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections, with 
Kaczynski saying differences between PiS and expected 
coalition partner Civic Platform were mostly over economics, 
with Civic Platform the more economically liberal by far. 
Fried and Kaczynski spoke at length about the situation in 
Ukraine, which Fried had just visited, with Kaczynski 
expressing concern that we not push Ukraine to move too 
rapidly on reform.  Kaczynski assured Fried of his support 
for Poland's presence in Iraq, but expressed hope for support 
in military modernization.  Fried urged Kaczynski and his 
associates to attend a briefing on Iraq when Iraq coordinator 
Ambassador Richard Jones and Deputy Commander of CENTCOM 
General Smith visit Warsaw later this month.  End summary. 
 
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DOMESTIC POLITICAL SCENE 
AND PRIORITIES 
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2.  (C)  Fried, who was accompanied by Ambassador, NSC 
Director for Central, Eastern and Northern Europe Damon 
Wilson, and PolCouns, met for lunch July 11 with Kaczynski, 
who was accompanied by Pawel Kowal, the director of his press 
office.  Reviewing the upcoming parliamentary elections, 
Kaczynski said it was impossible to tell whether his party or 
rival and likely partner, the centrist Civic Platform (PO), 
would receive the highest number of votes and thus lead a 
presumed coalition government.  The presidential race was 
complicated by the entry of Sejm Marshal Wlodzimierz 
Cimoszewicz as the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) candidate. 
Kaczynski said the presidential elections are very important 
for any reform, since the president can promote or block 
change.  The role of the president is not, he said, as 
powerful as in the U.S., but the presidency carried a lot of 
influence, and a president like Cimoszewicz, who represents 
the past, could block changes sought by a center-right 
government. 
 
3.  (C) Kaczynski said PO and PiS differed mainly on economic 
policy.  PiS, he said, is less economically liberal than PO, 
although not "statist," as many charged.  He said he believes 
in the importance of a balance among various social groups, 
and sees the growth of economic and social differences in 
post-1989 Poland as a problem.  Pensioners, for example, do 
not receive very much, and there should be no decrease in 
their benefits.  PiS does not agree with PO's flat tax 
proposals, believing a flat tax would not help the problem of 
corruption or increase investment.  Taxes, he argued, are 
already relatively low.  PiS is also concerned with the 
problem of the "prestige of the state," and cutting spending 
on everything will not help build this prestige.  He 
concluded by saying that no matter which party came out of 
the elections ahead, the differences between them were minor 
compared with their shared differences with the "old power." 
(Comment:  Kaczynski remains attracted to statist solutions, 
although less stridently than 10-15 years ago.  Kaczynski did 
acknowledge to Fried that the architect of Poland,s initial, 
fast-track economic reforms Leszek Balcerowicz "had achieved 
something and had a certain logic", a statement which is for 
Kaczynski a significant shift from his earlier views.  End 
Comment.) 
 
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PiS-PO SHARED VIEWS 
ON FOREIGN POLICY 
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4. (C)  Kaczynski continued that there were no major PO-PiS 
differences on foreign policy, and that a PiS-PO government 
would be "pro-American."  There would be continuity in issues 
such as policy toward Ukraine and Russia.  Poland did not 
want confrontation with Russia, but rather wanted to make 
Russia understand that Ukraine is not part of its "sphere of 
influence."  Poland needed to cooperate economically with 
Russia, and wanted to have good relations, provided there are 
the "right conditions."  Kaczynski said he did not want to 
see Russia destroyed, he just does not want to see the return 
of its empire, which Russia, he said, still sees Poland as 
properly part of.  It was painful to lose Poland, but the 
loss of Ukraine is "twenty times bigger." 
 
5.  (C) Kaczynski asked Fried for a read-out on the situation 
 
in Kiev, which he had just visited.  Fried described his 
concerns about the pace of reform, and compared Ukraine's 
situation to that of Poland in 1990-1992, when post-communist 
reforms seemed so difficult.  He said Ukraine can benefit 
from the experience of other countries that had undergone 
such a transition, and that Prime Minister Juliya Tymoshenko 
is a good politician, which would be a big help as the 
government had to sell its reforms.  Fried said that the 
Ukrainians need to be the initiators of their reform, and 
need to open their borders and move beyond the oligarchic 
system. 
 
6.  (C)  When Fried lamented that Ukraine does not have the 
kind of economic reformers Poland did in the early 1990's, 
Kaczynski (who opposed some of Poland's more far-reaching 
free market reforms at the time), warned against radical 
change.  "It was difficult in Poland, in Ukraine it could be 
lethal."  Along with the difficult economic situation, there 
are 12 million Russians in Ukraine, which could weaken 
Yushchenko and strengthen Russia's position.  Fried told 
Kaczynski that Tymoshenko had similar views, and wants high 
spending on the poor.  This is fine in the short term, but 
what Ukraine needs is economic growth.  Kaczynski argued that 
the concept of a pro-Western independent Ukraine is still 
internally contested, and so the government must proceed 
carefully so that as not to lose political support that was 
gained in last year's elections. 
 
7.  (C)  Kaczynski said that he was prepared to be Ukraine's 
"advocate" in Europe.  Poland has an interest in Ukraine's 
turn to the west, he said, but some in the EU think it is too 
big to absorb.  Fried said that the U.S. also wants to see a 
strong, independent Ukraine as part of Europe.  It is part of 
a wave of countries turning toward democracy, and we have a 
strategic interest in encouraging it.  Fried said he 
appreciated Kaczynski's thinking on Ukraine, and that we are 
looking for real partnership with Poland, and see it as a 
leader in Europe.  Kaczynski expressed concern about the 
anti-Americanism of some European leaders, such as French 
President Jacques Chirac, adding that he did not support the 
idea of the EU as a "super state." 
 
8.  (C)  On Iraq, Kaczynski said he supported Poland's 
participation in Iraq, and not just as a way of "making 
money."  He said he favored continued participation in Iraq, 
but wanted it tied to the modernization of Poland's army. 
Without giving specifics, he said his party was "planning 
changes" in the approach to military modernization, so that 
the armed forces are "ready," although "not to invade 
Moscow."  Poland would want assistance from the U.S. in 
achieving this.  Fried described recent positive developments 
in Iraq, and informed Kaczynski of the upcoming visit to 
Poland of Iraq Coordinator Amb. Richard Jones and CENTCOM 
Deputy Commander General Smith.  He urged Kaczynski to attend 
a briefing by them. 
 
9.  (C)  Fried concluded by assuring Kaczynski that we looked 
forward to close cooperation with the next Polish government, 
and that we need Poland to be a strong partner to the U.S. 
He urged Kaczynski to think of Polish-U.S. relations in those 
terms, and not just in terms of U.S. assistance for Poland, 
as had been the case in the first 10-15 years after the end 
of communism. 
 
10.  (C)  A/S Fried has cleared the text of this cable. 
CURTIN