US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI5593

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 005593 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/20/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, ECON, PINR, IN, Indian Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: UTTAR PRADESH GOVERNMENT SHAKY - COULD FALL SHORTLY 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  In a July 13-15 visit to Uttar Pradesh (UP) 
Poloff met with a wide variety of interlocutors who 
speculated that the two year rule of Chief Minister Mulayam 
Singh Yadav would soon come to an end.  Pervasive 
mis-governance and corruption, and a fast-deteriorating law 
and order situation, that has seen organized crime entering 
into all facets of public life, have stretched UP to its 
limits.  Determined to end Yadav's rule, the UPA could 
dissolve the government at any time.  With neither Congress 
nor the SP in any position to return to power, the low-caste 
focused BSP is likely to win any upcoming election, perhaps 
with an absolute majority.  BSP leader Mayawati is intent on 
quickly gaining control of the reins of government and 
cleaning house.  A decisive BSP victory in UP could cause 
Congress to concede control of the state to Mayawati in 
exchange for BSP entry into the UPA, ending Congress hopes of 
regaining the Hindi belt.  However, a rejuvenated BSP could 
also provide a solid block of MP's to the UPA government in 
New Delhi and reduce its reliance on the Left.  End Summary. 
 
Seismic Shift in Lucknow 
------------------------ 
 
2.  (U) In Lucknow from July 13-15, Poloff met with political 
leaders, academics, civil servants, journalists, and Shia 
Muslim maulvis and community leaders.  Although the time 
frame is uncertain, most agreed that a change of government 
in India's largest state (population 166 million) is 
imminent, and that Mayawati will return as Chief Minister, 
perhaps winning an absolute majority in new elections.  While 
Poloff was in Lucknow, Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav 
called an emergency session of the Legislative Assembly with 
only three days notice, sparking speculation that he could 
dissolve the government and call for new elections. 
 
3.  (C) Lucknow editors from the regional editions of the 
"Pioneer" and "Asian Age" confirmed to Poloff on July 14 that 
the people of UP so deeply resent SP misrule that the UPA 
could dismiss the state government and impose governor's rule 
at "the time of its choosing."  They predicted that the UPA 
would likely sideline the notoriously corrupt state police 
force and introduce the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) 
and other centrally-controlled paramilitaries to restore law 
and order, forcing the now-dominant "mafias" which permeate 
all levels of the UP public life, to "lie low." 
 
4.  (C) Both journalists predicted that the BSP would be the 
big winner in any new election, pointing out that the party 
was highly organized, has spent the past two years "laying 
the groundwork" necessary to win an election, and that most 
people in UP concede that it provide a modicum of good 
governance.  The editors confirmed that there was vast and 
growing disgust with the SP and its rule in UP and predicted 
this resentment would result in a huge swing against him in 
any election.  The reporters could not confirm whether the 
BSP could return to power on its own or would seek an 
alliance with Congress to push it over the top. 
 
Congress Can't Gain Momentum 
---------------------------- 
 
5.  (U) Press reports indicate that while Congress is strong 
in New Delhi, it has no chance of returning to power in 
Lucknow.  A report in the Lucknow "Pioneer" characterized the 
Uttar Pradesh (UP) Congress as a "Party heading to nowhere," 
attributing the lack of a momentum to Rahul Gandhi's failure 
to participate in party activities, "an eerie disinterest 
among the top leadership," and growing division. 
Characterizing Party President Salman Khursheed and 
"unrelentingly arrogant," the "Pioneer" pointed to conflict 
between his proponents and opponents so intense that it 
recently led to fistfights in the streets of Lucknow. 
Khursheed announced in May that Congress would hold 100 
rallies throughout the state, but nothing happened until July 
11.  To date Congress has held two rallies and canceled two 
more. 
 
6.  (C) In their conversation with Poloff on July 13, 
Khursheed and Congress Spokesman Rajesh Pandey were upbeat 
despite the negative press reporting.  They confirmed that 
the SP government cannot last, attributing Mulayam's imminent 
downfall to uncontrolled corruption, lack of governance, and 
a breakdown in law and order, which have caused a total halt 
to development, investment, and maintenance of the state's 
flimsy infrastructure.  Insisting that the SP has "taken no 
practical steps" to help Muslims, Pandey was confident that 
they would withdraw from the SP and come back to his party. 
Saying that UP voters were "sick of casteism," he insisted 
that there was a longing in the state for a return to rule by 
a national party. 
 
7.  (C) Khursheed confirmed that Congress had no hope of 
returning to power in UP, saying that it could take 10 years 
for his party to orchestrate a "bottom-up reform movement" to 
permanently change UP politics.  His goal is to increase the 
Congress tally to 66 seats in the UP Legislative Assembly of 
402 seats.  This means, he conceded, that Congress will have 
to find a coalition partner, as it cannot afford to remain 
outside of government.  Khursheed affirmed that without 
Ministers, Congress has no access to the patronage required 
to become a real force.  Khursheed refused to confirm whether 
Congress would eventually sign on with the BSP or the SP, 
saying that it had to be realistic and go with the party that 
provided the most benefits. 
 
The BJP Sees Power Slipping Away 
-------------------------------- 
 
8.  (C) Congress leader Pandey dismissed the BJP, saying that 
its fortunes were declining, as Advani and Hindutva were 
losing their appeal and the powerful Brahmin votebank was 
leaving to join Congress.  Predicting that former PM and 
proven votegetter AB Vajpayee would soon leave active 
politics, Pandey said the BJP would then lose its sole source 
of popular appeal.  He opined that the recent BSP program to 
enlist Brahmins would fail, while claiming that his party 
would "wean the dalits from the BSP. 
 
9.  (C) On July 13, BJP President Kesri Nath Tripathi 
insisted to Poloff that his party would continue to stress 
Hindutva as the best way to return to power.  He also claimed 
that the BJP would benefit from the recent spate of terrorist 
attacks in India.  Pointing out that Hindus constitute 80 
percent of the population and will always vote to support 
Hindu values, he asserted they are not expressing their 
outrage against the attacks and support for Hindutva because 
Hindus are "tolerant" and "not demonstrative."  Implying that 
only a BJP government can tackle these issues, Tripathi 
claimed that Indians know Pakistan is "the mother of 
terrorism," and is bent on using a "terrorist nexus" of 
Naxalites, Nepali Maoists, and Islamic fanatics to 
destabilize India. 
 
10.  (C) Tripathi characterized the recent visit of Party 
President LK Advani to Ayodhya as "very successful." 
Pointing out that the BJP held Mulayam responsible for the 
near success of the terrorist attack there, he implied that 
the Chief Minister is "100 percent pro-Muslim," and does not 
want a Hindu temple built at the Ram birthplace.  Since 
Congress and the SP both "encouraged terrorism," Tripathi 
noted, the BJP is the only party capable of dealing with this 
challenge. 
 
11.  (C) Tripathi was also convinced that the Mulayam 
government would soon fall and that state elections are 
imminent, noting that with the law and order situation 
deteriorating daily, the governor could call for a dismissal. 
 With Mulayam weakened by non-performance, he added, an 
election in UP could well result in a "hung assembly" and 
continuing governor's rule. 
 
12.  (C) Conceding that the BJP was number three after the 
BSP and SP in the last elections, Tripathi confirmed that it 
could only return to power in coalition with one of these 
regional parties.  However, disappointed by Mayawati's 
"unreliability" and opposed to Mulayam, Tripathi confirmed 
that the BJP is determined to go it alone.  Instead of 
seeking out a coalition partner, the party will inaugurate an 
"education campaign" emphasizing the poor record of the 
regional parties and painting the BJP as the party of "good 
governance." 
 
The BSP's Time is Now 
--------------------- 
 
13.  (C) In a July 14 conversation with Poloff, BSP General 
Secretary Satish Chandra Mishra was extremely confident that 
 
SIPDIS 
his party was set to return to power after two years in 
opposition.  Mishra expected the SP government to fall and 
the BSP to win an absolute majority in upcoming elections. 
He pointed out that in the 2003 state elections, the BSP lost 
100 seats by 2,000 votes or less and is set to win most of 
them in a future poll.  Mishra noted that the recent BSP 
rally to welcome Brahmins into the party attracted 300,000 
participants from all over the state, implying that the 
addition of Brahmin voters would provide the needed impetus 
to ensure a BSP win. 
 
14.  (C) Mishra pointed out that Mulayam is losing strength 
every day, and is well aware that the Congress governor is 
monitoring the deteriorating law and order situation and 
could dissolve the house at any time.  With this in mind, 
Mulayam is likely to dissolve the assembly and call a new 
elections while he still has a chance of winning, and could 
have the Legislative Assembly name him as "caretaker Chief 
Minister."  Such a move would enable him to control state 
resources that he could use to rig the election.  In 
addition, Mishra (one of the state's leading lawyers) has 
filed a civil case contesting the 2003 defection of 40 
legislators from the BSP to the SP.  The case could be 
decided in the next several weeks and if Mishra wins, the 40 
SP legislators would be asked to vacate their seats, the SP 
would lose its majority and the government would fall. 
 
15.  (C) Mishra predicted that Chief Minister Yadav would 
unleash a wave of violence, intimidation and vote-rigging in 
a last-ditch attempt to retain his hold on power, but all his 
efforts would fail.  Such tactics, he pointed out, only work 
in by-elections when the "goons" can be concentrated to 
intimidate voters and local police can be convinced to look 
the other way.  This time, he noted, the election would be 
state-wide and the SP would not have the needed "muscle."  In 
addition, the police are aware that the SP is on its way out 
and will remain neutral. 
 
16.  (C) Mayawati has an "action plan" emphasized Mishra, 
that will quickly turn the situation around and revive UP. 
Her first priority after taking office will be to "clean up" 
the state administration, restore effective governance and 
take on the "mafias" that have become entrenched during the 
past two years of SP rule.  Mishra claimed that although 
Mayawati has received numerous death threats from the 
criminals, she will pursue put them and their SP supporters 
behind bars.  Mishra insisted that relations between Mayawati 
and Congress President Sonia Gandhi are very good, hinting 
that after Mayawati's election, Congress would sever ties 
with the SP both in New Delhi and Lucknow and extend support 
to the BSP.  In New Delhi, he claimed, the BSP would join the 
government with several of its MP's slated for cabinet 
positions.  In exchange for BSP support, Congress would have 
to concede BSP control of UP. 
 
Comment 
------- 
17.  (C)  Like many Indian politicians, Mulayam has grown out 
of touch as he surrounds himself with sycophants and does not 
seem to be aware of his inherent weakness.  Few in Lucknow 
give him much chance of survival.  Although Poloff spent the 
entire afternoon with SP leader Bhagwati Singh, he studiously 
avoided politics and made no attempt to defend his Chief 
Minister. 
 
18.  (C) With 80 seats in Parliament, UP is so important that 
a change of government will have national repercussions. 
Should Mayawati win a working majority on her own as many 
suspect, Congress would have to concede BSP control of the 
state, and the BSP could win a long-term hold on power in 
Lucknow.  This would encourage BSP ambitions to be a national 
voice for dalits and it could pick up additional MP's in 
future national elections.  Should a revived BSP press for 
entry into the UPA, it could increase the UPA margin in 
parliament.  Such a move would push the SP and its Left 
allies closer together and hasten the day when the Left will 
withdraw its support from the UPA and announce the formation 
of a "third front" to challenge UPA rule.  However, BSP 
support would also liberate the UPA government from its 
current reliance on the Left's support, at a time when 
Manmohan Singh appears to be growing increasingly fed-up with 
the criticisms and negativism of his Communist allies. 
BLAKE