US embassy cable - 05MINSK794

UNCLAS MINSK 000794 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, ECON, BO 
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY REPORT - July 13, 2005 
 
 
1.  The following are brief items of interest compiled 
by Embassy Minsk over the past week. 
 
 
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Political Developments 
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1.  No Early Election 
 
On July 8, Deputy Head of the Presidential 
Administration Natalia Petkevich dismissed rumors of an 
early presidential election.  According to Petkevich, 
the election date is predetermined in the Constitution 
and any rumors of early elections are lies to "give food 
to reporters."  Petkevich stated that no state 
organizations would conduct opinion polls about the 
election because sociological services constantly cover 
the topic. 
 
2.  Delegates Chosen for Presidential Nomination 
Congress 
 
By July 11, 1,500 opposition activists in 42 districts 
voted for delegates to the National Congress that will 
select a single opposition candidate for the 2006 
presidential election.  Among the 72 delegates chosen, 
24 are members of the United Civic Party (UCP), 22 of 
the Belarusian Popular Front, and six of the Belarusian 
Party of Communists. 
 
3.  Sivakov Upset 
 
While answering reporters' questions on July 7, the 
recently fired former sports minister Yuri Sivakov 
claimed he had not made any mistakes during his tenure 
as Minister of Sports and Tourism and called his 
dismissal a "blow below the belt."  Sivakov stated that 
he did not see any failures during his service and did 
not feel ashamed of how he handled his job.  When asked 
about his absence during his replacement's introduction 
to the staff, Sivakov replied that he "did not want to 
attend his own funeral or be an actor and force out 
words of gratitude."  Sivakov facetiously promised to do 
something with his time, like take over an ailing 
collective farm or join opposition activist Vladimir 
Parfenovich's kayak federation or join the Foreign 
Legion, but does not plan to work for the GOB.  "I will 
decide my own future and will not be used again as I 
have been used enough in the past." 
 
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Human Rights 
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4.  Drugs and Ammunition in Activist's Apartment 
 
On July 13, the Ministry of the Interior (MoI) announced 
that it would charge Anatoly Kishkurna, son of the 
chairperson of the Minsk branch of the Belarusian 
Popular Front Vladimir Kishkurna, with illegal drug and 
firearms trade.  If convicted, Kishkurna could spend up 
to 13 years in prison.  The charges follow the MoI Vice 
Squad's July 8 search of Kishkurna's apartment, where 
they found .0607 grams of heroine and 61 "various" gun 
cartridges.  In addition, the police found an industrial 
printing press, 20 press forms, and over 3,000 
unregistered newspapers, opposition leaflets, and 
posters.  Kishkurna admitted he owned the cartridges, 
but claimed he had found them by chance and did not know 
that he was committing a crime.  Kishkurna pleaded 
innocent to the illegal drug charges.  Immediately 
following the apartment raid, state television reported 
the opposition's involvement in the drug trade.  The 
news program claimed police officers found drugs, 
syringes, pistol shells and a sniper rifle in the 
apartment as well as underground newspapers and signed 
receipts from citizens who had assisted the opposition. 
An unnamed police officer opined that the opposition is 
now linking up with criminals and wondered who the 
opposition activist and/or his son intended to shoot. 
 
5.  Opposition Delegates Detained 
 
Police briefly detained opposition activists on July 10 
during a meeting to select delegates to the National 
Congress.  Police arrested and later released the leader 
of the UCP Anatoli Lebedko prior to the event for 
violating passport rules in a border area and charged 
ten others with the same violation after the meeting. 
The meeting was moved to a private residence after the 
scheduled location, the Brest House of Culture, was 
locked when participants arrived. 
 
6.  Skrebets Resumes Hunger Strike 
 
On 7 July, Sergei Skrebets resumed a hunger strike 
following a meeting with an investigator from the 
Prosecutor General's Office.  According to his lawyer, 
Mikhail Khomich, Skrebets considers his case politically 
motivated and refused to cooperate with the 
investigator.  He is thereby protracting the inquiry, 
which could now last several months.  Khomich claimed 
Skrebets could be moved from Brest to Minsk in the near 
future.  In June, Skrebets ended a 40-day hunger strike 
that he began following his May arrest for bribery and 
theft charges.  Skrebets' wife told Ambassador that her 
husband is determined to prevail.  She had persuaded him 
to end his previous hunger strike for health reasons. 
She expressed appreciation for the moral support he 
receives from the U.S. and other nations who follow his 
case. 
 
7.  Activist Arrested Twice 
 
Police arrested Zubr member Aleksei Shidlovsky twice on 
8 July for distributing copies of the unregistered 
opposition bulletin Vybor.  After being detained for an 
hour at the police station for distributing the 
bulletin, Shidlovsky returned to the streets and 
distributed more copies.  Police arrested him again and 
charged him with two counts of distributing unregistered 
printed material.  If convicted, Shidlovsky could face a 
fine of USD 12 to 60. 
 
8.  Independent Paper Fined 
 
On July 7, the opposition daily Narodnaya Volya was 
fined a total of USD 53,500 in three separate defamation 
trials, potentially bankrupting the paper.  The first 
two lawsuits stem from a February article calling on 
Belarusians to demand democratic reforms and European 
living standards and an April article that published 
10,000 signatures in support of the appeal.  Nine people 
filed lawsuits claiming that they had not signed the 
petition.  The third lawsuit was filed by chairman of 
the Liberal Democratic Party Sergei Gaidukevich in 
response to a March article outlining his involvement 
with the Hussein regime and oil.  The Committee to 
Protect Journalists claimed lawsuits and large fines 
have crippled independent media in Belarus. 
 
9.  Journalists Fined 
 
Police arrested five journalists at a July 6 protest in 
Grodno for displaying a banner saying `Give Glos znad 
Niemna back to the Poles'.  The banner referred to the 
Grodno State Regional Printing Plant's refusal to print 
a May issue of Glos znad Niemna and to the publication 
of four false issues of the Polish language weekly that 
defamed the recently elected Union of Belarusian Poles' 
leadership.  Authorities did not respond to the UBP and 
newspaper's complaints about the illegal use of the Glos 
znad Niemna nameplate in the false publications but did 
fine the arrested journalists for staging unauthorized 
protests and disobeying police orders. 
 
10.  NGOs Close 
 
On July 6, human rights defender Yuri Chausov announced 
that since January, authorities had closed 38 NGOs in 
Belarus, most involved in political or quasi-political 
activities.  According to Chausov, the president's new 
decree on public associations makes it easier for 
authorities to close NGOs and more difficult for people 
to establish them.  By July 12, however, the Ministry of 
Justice had registered over 30 new NGOs, such as the 
Society of Gardening Amateurs, the Public Association of 
Microbiologists, and the National Public Association of 
Hairdressers. 
 
 
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Economics 
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11.  Single Tax Decrease 
 
On July 11, the Minsk City Council of Peoples' Deputies 
adopted a resolution to decrease the single tax on 
individual entrepreneurs by 15-20 percent.  The tax rate 
 
would depend on the business' location and turnover and 
price of goods sold.  The tax covers 76 types of 
businesses and the resolution is expected to decrease 
monthly city budget revenues by USD 413,000.  A 
presidential decree on fixed VAT sums for goods imported 
from Russia is expected to increase monthly VAT payments 
to the budget, totaling USD 6.5 million. 
 
12.  Closer to China 
 
On July 11, Ambassador of Belarus to China Anatoly 
Kharlap announced China's plans to loan USD 150 million 
to the Belarusian Telecommunication Network (Best) to 
buy equipment.  Registered in November 2004, Best is 100 
percent state-owned and plans to operate nationwide by 
2014.  China has already agreed to lend Belarus USD 40 
million to reconstruct Minsk heat power plant No.2 and 
USD 20 million to Borisov Pharmaceutical plant to 
develop pill production.  Kharlap noted the substantial 
increase in trade and investments between Belarus and 
China and hopes that the number of Chinese tourists to 
Belarus increases and that flights between Minsk and 
Peking will resume.  The two countries are due to sign a 
tourism agreement later this year. 
 
13.  Oil Deal with Russia 
 
On 8 July, First Deputy PM Vladimir Semashko announced 
Belarus would sign a deal with Russia to import 19.5 
million tons of crude oil from Russia in 2006 via 
pipelines and rail.  Semashko stressed that the two 
countries have no differences over the delivery and 
processing of the oil. 
 
14.  Government to Aid Glassworks 
 
During a July 9 visit to Neman Glass Factory in western 
Belarus, President Lukashenko told a crowd of employees 
and factory management that the government would help 
the failing company.  Lukashenko blamed the company's 
financial problems on poor management and employee 
theft, saying that workers had stolen 30 percent of the 
company's output several years in a row (the plant's 
management and employees applauded him throughout his 
harangue).  According to Lukashenko, USD 20 million is 
needed to modernize, improve product quality, raise 
sales, create new jobs, pay off debts, and reduce 
harmful emissions. 
 
15.  New VAT Scheme Works 
 
At a July 7 press conference, Tax Minister Alla Deiko 
announced that the new VAT scheme with Russia, whereby 
taxes on imports and exports is collected in the country 
of destination, caused a 40 percent increase in tax 
proceeds for Belarus in the first quarter.  According to 
Deiko, the numbers prove the VAT scheme's effectiveness. 
Deiko also informed that the total value of taxes 
collected in the first quarter exceeded USD 4 billion. 
 
16.   Keep Inflation Rates Low 
 
The Ministry of Statistics and Analysis told reporters 
on July 12 that in the first quarter of 2005, the rate 
of inflation grew four percent compared to eight percent 
in 2004.  The average monthly inflation rate in the same 
period amounted to 0.7 percent.  Consumer prices rose 
0.2 percent after climbing 0.6 percent in May.  In June, 
the consumer price index grew one percent.  According to 
the Ministry, Belarus' goal is to keep 2005's inflation 
between eight and 10 percent, an average of 0.8 percent 
per month.  The IMF expects Belarus' 2005 inflation rate 
to max at 17.4 percent. 
 
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Military 
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17.  Fighters to Guard Minsk 
 
On July 12, the Defense Ministry announced starting July 
15 Belarusian fighters would patrol the skies over 
Minsk, by order of President Lukashenko.  To improve 
their response time, fighters will be rotated from 
various bases through the Machulishchi airfield outside 
Minsk.  The MOD also announced that Belarus and Russia 
are monitoring NATO flights over the Baltics.  Although 
NATO planes fly along the Lithuania-Belarus border, the 
Defense Ministry has noted no violations of Belarusian 
airspace.  However, Belarus and Russia continue to 
monitor all jet take-offs and landings in adjacent 
countries. 
 
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Education 
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18.  Institute for Modern Knowledge Forced to Close 
 
On June 30, the Ministry of Education (MoE) informed the 
private university Institute for Modern Knowledge that 
it would have to close its departments of law and social 
technology (which includes legal studies and economic 
law) as well as close its affiliated branches in Grodno, 
Brest, and Vitebsk.  The MoE is closing the three 
branches for failing a recent inspection, however, the 
rector of the Institute for Modern Knowledge told the 
press he is appealing the decision, as in some cases 
they meet the same requirements as do local state 
schools which are not being closed.  He specifically 
argued his Grodno branch received the same score in the 
inspection as Grodno State University.  The 2,130 
students at these branches are waiting for a court 
decision, while some IMK alumni are collecting funds to 
help them pay for more expensive state schools. 
[Comment:  It is hard to judge if these closures are 
another attack against private education.  IMK has long 
had a reputation as a weak school that would take any 
student who could afford to pay.  One former faculty 
member from IMK told Pol Chief that students who fail 
exams could pay to retake them until they passed.  IMK 
staff refused to meet with Emboffs to discuss their 
case.] 
 
19.  Technical Cooperation with China 
 
On July 11, Belarusian State University (BGU) signed a 
memorandum of understanding with the Science and 
Technology Office of the city government of Harbin, 
China.  First deputy rector of BGU, Sergei Rakhmanov, 
opined that close economic ties with China should be 
complemented with close scientific and technical 
cooperation and cooperation in the area of education. 
Rakhmanov claimed that the Chinese government views its 
northern provinces as a bridge for cooperation with 
Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. 
 
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Miscellaneous 
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20.  Bride Shortage 
 
A July 12 study by the Vitebsk Science and Research 
Center predicts that in 2006-2010, in 18 out of 21 of 
the region's districts, men aged 19-25 will outnumber 
females of the same age by 1 to 0.7.  Center director 
Raisa Kosterova credited this difference to women being 
a more mobile population group that moves to cities to 
work or study.  For people aged over 40, women outnumber 
men due to men's poor health from alcoholism, 
smoking, and accidents. 
 
21.  Growing Elderly Population 
 
The Ministry of Labor and Social Security recently 
announced that by 2025, senior citizens would make up 28 
percent of the  population.  In 1990, there were 5.8 
million working people and 100 working-age people earned 
a living for every 46 pensioners.  Today, there are 4.3 
million working people, and 100 workers for every 60 
pensioners.  The number of prematurely retired people in 
Belarus has tripled since 1990, but there is still a 
large number of pension-age workers.  Currently, 84,000 
elderly are in need of social assistance. 
 
22.  Mayor Calls for Cleaner Toilets 
 
Minsk Mayor Mikhail Pavlov expressed dismay on 12 July 
after visiting 40 public toilets in Minsk.  He described 
most toilets as unhygienic because they had not 
regularly been cleaned with disinfectants.  According to 
Pavlov, toilets should be contemporary, with modern 
sanitary engineering equipment, soap dispensers and 
paper towels. 
 
23.  Sexual Minorities Online 
 
According to leader of the sexual minorities of Belarus 
Eduard Tarlestskiy, his group successfully registered 
their web site on June 14 in the .by zone.  The group 
sent a request to the Ministry of Information and to the 
Special Ideological Committee for an advisory opinion 
before assigning a web address to the sexual minorities 
internet resource.  The Ministry denied any relation to 
the registration of the web site, claiming that it had 
nothing to do with internet resources.  The Ideological 
Committee, after studying the web site's content, 
approved the registration. 
 
24.  Radioactive Substance Found 
 
On July 11,  the Emergency Management Ministry announced 
that two containers of Cobalt-60 were discovered at an 
abandoned military facility in Marina Gorka in the Minsk 
region.  The radiation level around the containers was 
90 times higher than normal.  Radiation levels at the 
facility returned to normal after the Ministry moved the 
containers to a disposal facility.  Law enforcement 
agencies are looking into why the containers were not 
removed earlier. 
 
25.  Memorials to Holocaust Victims 
 
On July 10, two memorials dedicated to Belarusian Jews 
who died in the Holocaust were unveiled in the Minsk 
region.  The monuments commemorated the 112 Jews 
executed in the village of Rakov and 37 killed in 
Vishnevo, the birthplace of former PM of Israel Shimon 
Peres.  Britain's Simon Mark Lazarus Foundation largely 
financed the monuments on which plaques were written in 
Belarusian, English and Hebrew.  Prominent Jewish 
leaders were present and Ambassador Krol spoke at the 
Vishnevo event (remarks on Embassy website), but no high 
level GOB officials were present at any of the 
ceremonies. 
 
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Anti-US 
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26.  Democracy Not Importable 
 
In a July 8 article in the state-controlled daily 
Respublika, journalist Nina Sheldysheva accused the US 
of imposing color revolutions in Belarus using blackmail 
and pressure.  Sheldysheva claimed the U.S. is hurrying 
to implement revolutionary projects in former USSR 
countries because the "mechanism of orange revolutions 
is failing."  She argued that the USG did not like the 
high level of stability in Belarus and pointed out that 
Belarus is able to listen to other countries, but 
prefers to decide its own destiny.  This type of 
commentary compliments the barrage of reports on 
Belarusian state media critical of the Yushenko 
government and its failure to improve the lives of 
Ukrainians - a clear message to Belarusians that 
revolution brings poverty and incompetence. 
 
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Quote of the Week 
----------------- 
 
27.  On July 13, MP Nikolai Cherginets doubted the 
opposition's ability to lead the government: 
 
"At best, we will find ourselves in a state with a 
rationing system, for they are good for nothing.  None 
of the opposition leaders have ever paid taxes, although 
they can afford to fly business class and stay at luxury 
hotels.  They have learned the basic rule: pass yourself 
off as a poor man and they will give more.  The most 
unpleasant thing is that much of the group has started 
scaring one another with the Belarusian bugbear." 
 
28.  During his July 12 visit to his hometown in Shklov 
and Alexandria, Lukashenko blamed the West for Belarus' 
drug problems: 
 
"Belarus is a transit country.  They [dealers] carry 
this crap through our country and make our people 
addicted to it.  It is the civilized West that makes us 
addicted."