US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI3058

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003058 
 
SIPDIS 
 
WASHINGTON PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/19/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, AA, Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: NEW KMT CHAIR MA YING-JEOU FACES CHALLENGES TO 
RESTORING PARTY UNITY 
 
 
Classified By:  AIT Director Douglas H. Paal, Reason 1.4 b 
 
1.  (C)  Summary.  Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou won a landslide 
election as the next Kuomintang Chair, winning 72 percent of 
the vote to Speaker Wang Jin-pyng's 28 percent.  Though Ma 
publicly agreed with Wang's statement that the Chair race and 
the 2008 presidential race are separate issues, most 
observers see Ma as now the clear frontrunner for the KMT 
nomination.  Ma's challenge will be to rebuild KMT unity 
around his leadership even as he pursues controversial party 
reform.  Wang,s refusal to meet with Ma the evening of the 
vote, however, is an early warning that this may be a 
difficult task.  Ma won a majority in every county and city 
on the island, including Wang's home in Kaohsiung County. 
End Summary. 
 
2.  (U)  Mayor Ma Ying-jeou won a landslide election to 
replace Lien Chan as the next Kuomintang Party (KMT) Chair on 
Saturday, July 16.  The island-wide vote went smoothly and 
the efficient counting process was completed by 9:00, five 
hours after the polls closed.  With just over fifty percent 
of the one million eligible KMT members voting, Ma won 
375,056 votes (72 percent) to Legislative Yuan (LY) Speaker 
Wang Jin-pyng's 143,268 (28 percent). 
 
Unifying and Leading 
-------------------- 
 
3.  (U) The popular and reputedly squeaky clean Ma ran 
against virtually the entire Pan-Blue coalition leadership, 
as most KMT and People First Party (PFP) LY members and most 
KMT elders endorsed Wang.  In his public statement accepting 
victory, Ma reached out to Wang with compliments and promises 
of support, and offered words of appreciation to current KMT 
Chair Lien Chan and PFP Chair James Soong for their years of 
leadership.  He thanked Lien for deepening the party's 
democratization, which made a competitive Chair election 
possible for the first time in the party's nearly one hundred 
year history.  Ma then reiterated his campaign pledge of 
party reform, which had unsettled many KMT leaders.  He also 
announced that he will establish a KMT youth corps to 
rejuvenate the KMT.  Underscoring that emphasis, Ma's victory 
celebration itself was held in the Taipei Youth Center. 
 
4.  (C) In his statement, Ma explained that his overarching 
goal will be to build up the KMT so that it can become the 
ruling party in 2008.  He quickly added, however, that it is 
too early to say who will represent the KMT in the 
presidential election that year.  Ma also pledged to 
cooperate with the PFP and reestablish the Pan-Blue alliance 
in order to win the year-end city/county magistrate 
elections. 
 
5.  (C) The party election also elected 1,105 delegates to 
next month's KMT National Party Congress.  These delegates 
will, in turn, elect a new 210-member KMT Central Committee 
and 31-member Central Standing Committee, the latter of 
particular importance as the day-to-day governing body of the 
party. 
 
Facing Stiff Challenges 
----------------------- 
 
6.  (C) Ma,s first challenge will be to restore unity within 
the KMT following a sometimes bruising campaign.  He 
announced that he would make Wang's 15-point campaign 
platform official KMT policy, and he pledged to share party 
leadership by inviting Wang to be KMT First Vice Chair and 
retaining all three other Vice Chairs and party officials. 
When campaign workers at Ma headquarters began cheering Ma's 
early lead in vote counting, Ma Spokesman You Zi-xiang 
whispered to AIT that "we must not smile too much" in order 
to "give face to Wang."  When Wang called Ma to concede the 
election, Ma requested a meeting with Wang to demonstrate 
Party unity, a request Wang refused.  Speaking to his own 
supporters gathered at his campaign headquarters, Wang stated 
that he intended to follow in Lien's lead and become a 
life-long volunteer worker for the KMT.  Television political 
commentators quickly interpreted Wang's remark as a refusal 
of Ma's invitation to serve as KMT First Vice Chair. 
 
7.  (C) In the final week of the campaign, a flood of 
Pan-Blue legislators and elders publicly endorsed Wang for 
KMT Chair.  Journalists at Ma's victory celebration told AIT 
they saw Lien Chan's ballot when he deposited it in the 
ballot box, and he had voted for Wang.  TV news stations and 
newspapers all ran photos purporting to show that Lien's 
ballot, as he placed it in the ballot box, was marked in 
Wang's column.  PFP officials and legislators, moreover, have 
told AIT that Party leaders from James Soong down greatly 
dislike Ma for his perceived arrogance and his cultivated 
image of honesty.  Ma campaign director and LY member Lai 
Shih-pao, however, told AIT that the legislators' endorsement 
of Wang was not a big problem or obstacle to Party unity, 
because the LY members had no choice but to support their 
Speaker.  They will quickly "realize where power lies," Lai 
argued, and come around to accept Ma as party Chair. 
 
8.  (C) Ma told his campaign workers he agreed with Wang's 
insistence that the Chair race and the 2008 presidential race 
are separate issues.  Nevertheless, several volunteers told 
AIT that they believe the KMT presidential nomination is Ma's 
for the taking.  Noting that Ma and Wang's final vote count 
tallied closely with that predicted by public opinion polls, 
Soochow University Professor and pollster Emile Sheng argued 
in a post-election television interview that the election 
indicated Ma was the most likely KMT presidential candidate 
in 2008.  Several Ma campaign workers told AIT at the victory 
celebration that Wang would make a good Vice Presidential 
candidate to a Ma presidential candidacy. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
9.  (C) Ma's overwhelming win has established him as the 
front-runner in the race for the KMT 2008 presidential 
nomination.  At this very early stage, the nomination is Ma's 
to lose, but the opportunities for stumbling are many.  Ma 
must restore party unity with the Wang camp after an 
occasionally bitter campaign; he must elect a new Central 
Standing Committee next month that will at once reiniforce 
his leadership and salve the wounds of the Wang camp; and he 
must fulfill his promise to lead the KMT to win a majority of 
the city and county chief races in the December 3 local 
elections.  Wang Jin-pyng's refusal to meet with Ma Saturday 
night after the Chair election and his cryptic statement that 
he will do "volunteer worker" for the Party suggest that Ma 
has his work cut out for him on unifying the party.  The 
December elections, moreover, will pit Ma against the DPP's 
aggressive Chair, Su Tseng-chang, a proven campaigner and 
campaign organizer.  Meanwhile, the KMT Chair election offers 
a sliver of optimism that, as President Chen Shui-bian 
himself has stated, the KMT under new leadership might begin 
to cooperate with the ruling DPP enough to move Taiwan beyond 
the legislative gridlock caused in large measure by Lien 
Chan's refusal to cooperate with President Chen, whom he 
considers elected illegitimately.  Ma will still have to 
consolidate his leadership within the party and deal with the 
fears of the party establishment as he implements his 
reforms.  End Comment. 
 
Bio Note 
-------- 
 
10.  (C) Born in Hong Kong in 1950 of Mainland parents, Ma 
Ying-jeou has been working in recent years to identify with 
the growing sense of Taiwan identity among Taiwan voters. 
According to his Taipei Language Institute tutor, Ma studies 
Taiwanese each day, though native Taiwanese speakers tell AIT 
that he speaks Taiwanese with a "very heavy" accent.  After 
earning his LL.B. in 1972 from National Taiwan University, Ma 
went to the U.S., where he received his LL.M from NYU in 1976 
and his J.S.D. from Harvard in 1981.  He returned to Taiwan 
and served as President Chiang Ching-kuo's English 
interpreter (1981-88) and Deputy Secretary General of the KMT 
Central Committee (1984-88).  He served successively as 
Chairman of the Research, Development and Evaluation 
Commission (1988-91), Vice Chairman of the Mainland Affairs 
Council (1991-93), and Minister of Justice (1993-96), 
resigning -- or being forced out of -- the last position in 
the face of heavy internal party opposition to his political 
and judicial reform efforts.  Ma was elected Mayor of Taipei 
City in 1998 and reelected in 2002.  He is married with two 
children. 
PAAL