US embassy cable - 05PARIS5004

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 005004 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2015 
TAGS: OPDC, PARM, PBTS, PHUM, PREL, PGOV, MD, FR, UZ, EUN, OSCE 
SUBJECT: MFA UNCERTAIN ON TRANSNISTRIA CONFERENCE, 
DISCUSSES OTHER CIS ISSUES 
 
REF: A. STATE 125824 
     B. PARIS 4916 
 
Classified By: A/DCM JOSIAH ROSENBLATT, FOR REASONS 1.4 B/D 
 
1. (C) Summary: In a meeting July 18 with POL M/C and Poloff, 
Jean-Francois Terral, the MFA's A/S-equivalent for the 
Balkans, Russia and the former Soviet space, said France was 
studying our ref A demarche supporting a multilateral 
conference on the Transnistria conflict, but was uncertain of 
its utility if it bypassed the Russians, especially given a 
GOF perception that Russia was beginning to come around to 
embracing a more positive role on the Transnistria conflict. 
Terral said he did not expect any backpedaling on EU/French 
commitments to the Balkans following French rejection of the 
EU Constitution, although he speculated that the EU (and 
France) would be "more rigorous" on conditions for 
membership.  He said France would wait until the visit of 
OSCE SYG Brichambaut to Uzbekistan before making any decision 
on its policy regarding that country, and noted that the EU 
was beginning to focus more attention on Belarus, with new 
initiatives coming from Lithuania and Poland.  End summary. 
 
FRENCH SEE POSITIVE RUSSIAN MOVEMENT ON TRANSNISTRIA 
 
2. (C) Terral recounted that French/Russian discussions of 
the Transnistria problem had always featured a "ten-minute 
lecture" by the Russian interlocutor bemoaning the failure of 
the Kozak plan.  Recently though, said Terral, the Russians 
had not given such lectures and had appeared to be open to 
greater EU (and U.S.) involvement.  Furthermore, Terral 
raised the possibility of a EU monitoring mission along the 
Moldova-Ukraine border, which he said France fully supported. 
 This monitoring mission, said Terral, would help dry up 
resources for the Transnistrian regime and help the Ukrainian 
government exert full authority over its border police. 
Given apparent Russian willingness to consider EU and US 
involvement and EU resolve to launch a monitoring mission 
along the border, Terral said a multilateral conference on 
Transnistria without Russia would run the risk of a Russian 
backlash.  France would be open to such a conference, said 
Terral, if it occurred within the context of full Russian 
involvement.  Terral reiterated the GOF's belief that Russia 
appeared to be evolving in the right direction regarding 
Transnistria and that now was not the time to ruffle Russian 
feathers. 
 
EU WILL BE "MORE RIGOROUS" WITH THE BALKANS 
 
3. (C) POL M/C asked Terral if he anticipated any changes in 
French policy on the Balkans' future membership in the EU 
following French rejection of the EU Constitution.  Terral 
said the defeat of the Constitution was still too recent to 
make any real guesses, but he believed that cooler heads 
would prevail, and France would continue to support the 
eventual integration of the Balkan countries into the EU. 
However, said Terral, he anticipated that the EU would be 
"more rigorous" in applying membership standards.  He was as 
certain as he could be that Croatia would join the EU, 
whether or not on the precise schedule currently set out.  If 
Croatia joins, it would be unnatural for Serbia to be left 
out.  That left Bosnia, whose political and reform situation 
was "relatively stagnant," said Terral.  He remained 
skeptical that Karadzic would be caught and believed that 
there was more political will in the region to catch Mladic. 
 
UZBEKISTAN AND BELARUS: THE GOF WORRIES ABOUT A 
LUKASHENKO-ORDERED "ANDIJON" 
 
4. (C) Terral said France continued to watch closely the 
situation in Uzbekistan, and looked forward to OSCE SYG 
Brichambaut's end of July visit.  When asked what role the 
GOF saw for the OSCE, the EU and the UN, Terral appeared to 
backtrack from ref B report that France was opposed to 
raising the matter at the UN.  Terral said that France was 
open to whatever method would work best, and was not against 
a role for the UN.  Still, he said France preferred to "wait 
and see" how Karimov would react to Brichambaut's planned 
visit.  In the context of the regional instability brought 
about by the events in Andijon in May, Terral said that EU 
members had renewed discussion on Belarus, given the 
possibility that Belarus President Lukashenko would not 
hesitate to use force just as Uzbekistan President Karimov 
had done.  Recent discussions had involved a number of 
different EU members, said Terral, but for the most part had 
featured Poland, Lithuania, France and Germany.  Terral said 
Lithuania and Poland were particularly concerned about 
Belarus, and had suggested two new proposals: 1) outreach to 
possibly receptive members of Belarus 
officialdom/nomenklatura with the message that Lukashenko 
would not be in power forever, and it was in their interest 
to cultivate ties with the West; and 2) ask the Russians to 
pressure Belarus given that a Lukashenko-ordered "Andijon" 
event in Belarus would only spur Belarus instability and harm 
Russian interests there.  Terral said the GOF had been 
surprised by the Lithuanian and Polish suggestions, 
especially the second one, which entailed close cooperation 
with the Russians.  Although these and other proposals were 
only in the discussion stage within the EU, Terral made it 
clear that the EU and France were refocusing attention on 
Belarus in the hope of forestalling an "Andijon"-type event 
that was much closer to EU borders than Uzbekistan. 
STAPLETON