US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN1290

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001290 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, DRL 
NSC FOR DAVID MERKEL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/19/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, AM 
SUBJECT: ARMENIAN CONSTITUTIONAL REFORMS:  ON THE RIGHT 
TRACK? 
 
REF: YEREVAN 1142 
 
Classified By: CDA A.F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b, d). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) On July 7, the GOAM submitted a revised package of 
constitutional amendments to the Council of Europe (CoE) 
Venice Commission.  Though the proposed GOAM revisions appear 
to track Venice Commission recommendations, they are unlikely 
to build public consensus.  Opposition groups, still trying 
to paint the constitutional reform process as a referendum on 
the Kocharian Administration, claim the changes do little to 
curb the Armenian president's powers.  Limited public 
engagement and unrealistically high legal requirements for 
voter turnout in referenda threaten to derail the process. 
Angered President Robert Kocharian, in an apparent 'take it 
or leave it' bid to force the opposition's hand, has 
reportedly withdrawn his support for the amendments.  The 
Venice Commission plans to announce the results of its 
evaluation on July 20.  The Embassy is supporting a modest 
public information campaign to build understanding of the 
reform process, but interest is still weak.  End Summary. 
 
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LACK OF PUBLIC SUPPORT THREATENS TO DERAIL AMENDMENTS 
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2. (SBU) On July 7, the GOAM submitted a revised package of 
constitutional amendments to the Council of Europe (CoE) 
Venice Commission.  The governing coalition refused to 
release the full text of the amendments, and instead 
distributed to opposition members a summary document which 
includes changes relevant to Venice Commission 
recommendations only.  Post has reviewed the summary document 
which, we believe, generally tracks Venice Commission 
recommendations.  The Venice Commission plans to announce the 
results of its evaluation of the full text of the amendments 
on July 20. 
 
3. (SBU) Though the proposed GOAM revisions generally track 
Venice Commission recommendations, opposition party leaders 
publicly question Kocharian's commitment to reform, claiming 
the amendments would not do enough to decentralize executive 
powers.  Waning public interest and unrealistically high 
legal thresholds for voter participation present substantial 
challenges to the GOAM's effort to pass the amendments by 
referendum.  The Embassy seeks to build understanding of the 
reform process through a modest public information campaign, 
but interest is still weak. 
 
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OPPOSITION PAINTING PROCESS AS REFERENDUM ON KOCHARIAN 
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4. (C) Privately, opposition Justice Party member Shavarsh 
Kocharyan told the Ambassador that Vartan Poghosyan and Hrayr 
Tovmasyan, opposition-affiliated constitutional law 
attorneys, actually drafted the GOAM's proposed 
constitutional amendments.  Publicly, however, Shavarsh 
Kocharyan says the revisions "do not go far enough" to 
decentralize executive powers.  Republic Party leader Aram 
Sargsyan announced his opposition to the amendments and, like 
Kocharyan, says his party will not negotiate with the ruling 
coalition.  Both party leaders claim that the GOAM will be 
unable to pass a referendum without their support. 
 
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SENIOR LEADERSHIP HOLDING BACK 
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5. (C) Shavarsh Kocharyan told the Ambassador that COE 
delegates Armen Harutyunyan, Justice Minister David 
Harutyunyan, NA Deputy Chairman Tigran Torosian, and 
opposition-affiliated constitutional law expert Vartan 
Pogosyan incorrectly advised GOAM President Robert Kocharian 
that opposition leaders would welcome revisions to the draft 
GOAM amendments.  When confronted with intense criticism 
instead, an angry President Kocharian reportedly withdrew his 
support for the amendments. 
 
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COMMENT:  ON THE RIGHT TRACK, BUT OPPOSITION SUPPORT NEEDED 
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6. (C) Though the GOAM's proposed revisions appear to track 
Venice Commission recommendations, limited public support and 
unrealistically high voter participation thresholds 
significantly complicate GOAM efforts to amend the 
constitution.  For a referendum to pass, President Kocharian 
will likely need opposition support.  At present, the 
opposition says it is unwilling to participate.  Though 
publicly critical of the amendments, opposition party leaders 
privately confide the changes are positive.  Still, 
opposition leaders hope to hold constitutional reform hostage 
to their own political aspirations, including a high-profile 
political victory over Kocharian. 
 
7. (C) We are pressing all of Armenia's political leaders to 
engage with the Venice Commission on the constitutional 
reform process.  In a series of meetings with opposition 
leaders, the Ambassador urged them to not let this 
opportunity slip by.  While there are indications that some 
may recognize that improving the rules of the game benefits 
them and are quietly engaging with coalition drafters, they 
remain unwilling to take the political risk of engaging 
publicly. 
GODFREY