US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI3057

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003057 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - 
ROBERT PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Cross Strait Politics 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS, 
CHINESE BID FOR UNOCAL 
 
1. Summary: Amid the extensive coverage July 16-19 of 
Typhoon Haitang hitting Taiwan and Taipei Mayor Ma Ying- 
jeou winning the KMT chairmanship election, almost all 
major Chinese-language newspapers in Taiwan also 
reported on People's Liberation Army (PLA) Major 
General Zhu Chenghu's remarks last Friday about using 
nuclear weapons against the United States in a conflict 
over Taiwan.  The pro-independence "Liberty Times," 
Taiwan's biggest daily, ran a banner headline on its 
front page July 16 that read: "People's Liberation Army 
speaks boldly of nuclear attacks [against the United 
States]; United States furious [about the remarks]." 
The "Liberty Times" also spent most of its page three 
covering Zhu's remarks; the main article ran with the 
headline: "Intimidation of nuke attacks shatters 
[China's false impression of] peaceful rising."  The 
pro-independence "Taiwan Daily," likewise, spent almost 
the whole of its page two July 16 reporting on Zhu's 
remarks and U.S. Representative Tom Tancredo's demand 
for an immediate apology from China over them. 
 
2. In terms of editorials, the pro-independence 
"Liberty Times," "Taiwan Daily," and limited- 
circulation, English-language "Taipei Times" all 
commented on Zhu's remarks.  They said Zhu's remarks 
have confirmed the "China threat theory" and have 
shattered China's false appearance of "peaceful 
rising."  Several newspapers also editorialized on 
China's bid for Unocal.  A "Liberty Times" editorial 
said China's bid for Unocal highlights its hegemonic 
ambition.  An editorial in the limited-circulation, 
conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China 
Post," however, merely said China's appetite for oil 
and other resources is too big to be ignored.  End 
summary. 
 
1. U.S.- China-Taiwan Relations 
 
A) "China's Intimidation of Using Nukes [on the United 
States] Confirms the China Threat Theory" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 
800,000] editorialized (7/19): 
 
". To promote its plan of becoming a hegemonic power, 
China has . not merely created trouble in the 
international community to divide U.S. efforts and 
attention but also engaged in an energy battle with the 
United States by laying its hand on a U.S. oil company. 
China's insistence of not letting its Renminbi 
appreciate is also a move essential for its trade war 
with the United States. . 
 
"In the eyes of the outside world, however, all these 
actions [by China] have just helped to prove that the 
so-called peaceful rise of China is nothing but a lie 
to paralyze the people of the world.  The China threat 
theory is, instead, a truer picture. . Beijing's 
enactment of the `Anti-Secession Law' and the Chinese 
military authorities' nuclear challenge to the United 
States marks [the fact] that China's `military strength 
determining theory' has gained an upper hand.  The 
Taiwan people, who will be the first to bear the brunt 
of [China's threat] must stop daydreaming, remain on 
high alert, and strengthen [Taiwan's] national defense 
in an attempt to maintain its sovereignty and safeguard 
the security of the Taiwan people and their property." 
 
B) "Chinese General Zhu Chenghu's Remarks on `Using 
Nukes to Attack the United States' Indicate the Nature 
of Beijing's Regime as a Warmonger" 
 
The pro-independence "Taiwan Daily" [circulation: 
150,000] noted in an editorial (7/19): 
 
". All these reactions have on the one hand, indicated 
the absurdity of [PLA General] Zhu Chenghu's remarks of 
using nuclear weapons to attack the United States; they 
have, on the other hand, highlighted Chinese military's 
warmongering and conceited attitude and its lack of 
knowledge of the international situation and world 
peace.  For a long time, many U.S. military analysts, 
political observers, and even the State Department 
believed that as long as Taiwan does not provoke China, 
no conflicts would occur in the Taiwan Strait.  They 
also believed that even if there were a conflict, it 
would just be a regional battle limited to the Taiwan 
Strait.  Zhu's statement, however, has posed [a clear] 
threat to the United States; it reveals that once a 
conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, the hawk 
faction inside China's People's Liberation Army will 
likely attempt to seize the opportunity to enlarge the 
conflict, provoke the United States and let it pay a 
price.  Zhu's statement was at least sufficient to 
remind Washington that the problem in the Taiwan 
Strait, or even the threat to world peace, does not lie 
in Taiwan but in China.  Zhu's statement could also 
alert those Western countries that mistakenly believe 
China is `rising peacefully' to work out a way to 
address the issue.  Judged from such a perspective, the 
aggressive remarks such as those by Zhu could at least 
help the Western World, including the United States, to 
better understand China's threat. . 
 
"We believe the U.S. government must thoroughly 
recognize that that the Chinese authorities try to 
create a false impression of [China's] `peaceful 
rising' to the United States while at the same time 
threatening to use force against Taiwan in public by 
enacting the `Anti-Secession Law and by allowing Zhu to 
make such an unfriendly statement to the United States. 
China's moves have clearly showed that its guarantee to 
Washington that it will `peacefully resolve' the cross- 
Strait issue is neither sincere nor reliable.  The 
United States must see and understand clearly the 
warmongering nature of China and start to take 
precautions, or it will be too late should any conflict 
break out in the Taiwan Strait, followed by a nuclear 
attack launched by China against the United States, 
which, as a result, will surely challenge world peace. 
." 
 
C) "PLA Recklessness Could Lead to War" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" 
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (7/16): 
 
". Taiwan apart, one of the main causes of tension 
between the US and China is the question of energy 
security.  US hopes of keeping oil plentiful and cheap 
have not only been frustrated by the Iraq debacle but 
also by the soaring demand for oil in China's economy. 
This is why the bid for US-owned Unocal by China's 
CNOOL is so controversial.  After Zhu's remarks, it's 
hard to see the US being relaxed enough to let the 
takeover go ahead.  Add to that the fact that a major 
US defense review is being conducted in which China is 
likely to figure large, and now even larger, and there 
are a number of reasons why Beijing might have 
preferred that Zhu kept his mouth shut. 
 
"And yet whatever denials Beijing utters should be 
taken with a grain of salt.  It is important to 
remember that Zhu is the dean of China's National 
Defense University.  Beijing might say that his remarks 
do not represent official policy, but they certainly 
represent thinking at the highest levels of the 
People's Liberation Army.  This is very worrying, 
because it backs up what other sources have been saying 
for a while about the PLA: That it is the preserve of 
gung-ho fantasists who think they can take on the US 
and win. ." 
 
2. Chinese Bid for Unocal 
 
A) "Oil Is Not Just an Ordinary Commodity, Nor is China 
an Ordinary Country - China's Bid for Unocal Highlights 
Its Hegemonic Ambition" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 
800,000] commented in an editorial (7/16): 
 
". The aim of China's expansionism, no matter whether 
it is pushed from the economic, diplomatic or military 
aspects, is evidently to seek to become a regional 
hegemonic power in the short term and to compete with 
the United States to become a superpower in the long 
term.  In the face of China's rising, which has drawn 
increasing attention [from the world], both the United 
States and Japan have included cross-Strait security as 
their common strategic objective starting early 2005. 
Democratic Taiwan, when encountering its only rival, 
totalitarian China, must be more alert because China 
could use economic, diplomatic and military means 
against Taiwan.  In addition, China's bid for Unocal 
also reflects that schemes with regard to political and 
military security can usually hide behind apparently 
commercial behavior.  The United States, from the 
general public to Congress, sees and understands 
clearly China's nature of attempting to expand itself 
by means of its state-run enterprises.  How can Taiwan, 
which is just a strait apart from China and also its 
main target, try to anesthetize itself?" 
 
B) "Beijing's Energy Appetite" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language 
"China Post" [circulation: 30,000] noted in an 
editorial (7/16): 
 
". But mainland China's appetite for oil and other 
resources is too big to be ignored.  It is already the 
world's second largest importer of oil.  It has been on 
a buying spree since last year, trying to grab energy 
and natural resources from all over the world to fuel 
its hungry economic engine that also drives the world's 
economy.  Mainland China has a lot of cash to spend. 
The Unocal bid, for instance, is US$2 billion higher 
than that of the other bidder, Chevron.  The mainland's 
foreign reserves could top US$900 billion by the end of 
this year, displacing Japan as the world's top holder 
of foreign exchange reserves." 
 
PAAL