US embassy cable - 05PARIS4954

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 004954 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT ALSO FOR DRL/IL, EUR/WE, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, INR/EUC AND 
EB 
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB 
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, ELAB, EU, FR, PINR, SOCI, ECON 
SUBJECT: CHIRAC'S BASTILLE DAY INTERVIEW: A WEAKENED 
PRESIDENT STRUGGLING TO COME BACK 
 
REF: PARIS 4900 
 
Classified By: Minister Counselor for Political Affairs Josiah Rosenbla 
tt for reason 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
1.  (SBU) Fighting to re-establish his relevance, President 
Chirac began the now traditional Bastille Day interview of 
France's President by casting himself as the leader of 
France's anti-terrorism effort.  Thereafter, in the hour-long 
exchange with two leading TV anchorpersons, Chirac focused on 
1) raising the morale of the French by highlighting the 
positive in France's current situation, 2) insisting that 
"the psychological moment" was right for the Villepin 
government to undertake difficult reforms to diminish 
unemployment, and 3) announcing a set of measures aimed at 
synergizing academic research and business innovation in 
France.  The political context for Chirac is bleak; even so, 
asked if he would run again in 2007, Chirac was 
non-committal.  His approval ratings are at record lows for 
presidents of France's Fifth Republic (in place since 1959), 
and his long-time rival in his own center-right, current 
Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy, has of late stepped up his 
challenges (septel) to the president's leadership.  End 
Summary. 
 
FIGHTING IRRELEVANCE 
-------------------- 
2.  (SBU) The public's rejection of the proposed EU 
Constitution on May 29, the hasty change of government forced 
on him by the stinging defeat in that referendum, Paris' 
unexpected loss of the right to host the 2012 Olympic games, 
an economy that has long sputtered along without strong 
growth, and the insistent challenges to his leadership 
credibility from long-time rival Nicolas Sarkozy (septel) 
have severely diminished President Chirac's national 
standing.  In recent weeks Chirac's approval ratings have 
fallen to around 22 percent, all-time lows for Chirac and 
reportedly the lowest ever for any president of France's 
Fifth Republic (De Gaulle, Pompidou, Giscard, Mitterand and 
Chirac).  The now traditional Bastille Day (July 14) extended 
interview from the Elysee Palace has usually served to give a 
preview of the key themes and policy initiatives envisioned 
by the president for the coming -- September - June -- 
"political year."  (For example, last year, Chirac used the 
occasion to announce the May 29 referendum on the proposed EU 
constitution).  This year, discredited and with the lack of 
vision for which he has long been faulted painfully evident, 
Chirac's use of the occasion was limited to trying to 
re-establish his continued relevance to guiding France into 
the future. 
 
LEADING FRANCE'S FIGHT AGAINST TERRORISM 
---------------------------------------- 
3.  (SBU) Chirac underscored that no country is immune to the 
scourge of terrorist attacks, and clearly implied that the 
French should not entertain any false hopes that their 
country might somehow be excepted from that.  Chirac depicted 
himself as exercising active oversight of the effort to 
protect citizens from terrorism.  Chirac also insisted on 
France's solidarity with Britain and admiration for the 
British people.  He recalled how, at the Gleneagles G8 
Summit, the attacks prompted a new unity among the leaders 
present, which would be translated into action by closer 
anti-terrorism cooperation, in particular with France's 
European partners. 
 
FOCUS ON FRANCE'S STRENGTHS 
 -------------------------- 
4.  (SBU) Throughout the hour-long interview, Chirac 
repeatedly returned to those aspects of France's current 
situation that should give the restive French public good 
reason to be optimistic about the future.  In particular, 
Chirac repeatedly evoked the strength of France's export 
sector (France is the world's fifth largest economy and 
fourth largest exporter), the scale and know-how of France's 
agro-industries (which should become more valuable as world 
population grows), the productivity of France's businesses 
(notwithstanding the 35 hour work week which Chirac said had 
been very costly to the French economy), and France's healthy 
rate of population growth and well-educated workforce. 
However, Chirac also repeatedly focused on the "principal 
problem" of unemployment.  He called unemployment a "wound 
that is not inevitable" and a "something that must be tackled 
frontally."  Chirac ended his remarks by announcing a new 
initiative -- in the form of another state agency -- aimed at 
better coordinating France's state-sponsored scientific and 
engineering research and the business sector's product 
innovation (reftel). 
 
COMMENT: NOT ON THE COMEBACK TRAIL 
---------------------------------- 
5.  (C) Chirac's performance was weak, and is unlikely to 
give even temporary buoyancy to his sinking presidency. 
Throughout the interview Chirac was clearly intent on getting 
his points across, but also oddly absent.  Many media 
commentators, in different ways, noted that there was a 
surreal tinge to the president's performance -- as if he was 
actor in the part of President Chirac, but playing it 
somewhat distractedly, with diminishing conviction.  Chirac 
incredibly claimed that he "had drawn strength" from the 
people's message in voting 'no' to the proposed constitution. 
 Pundits have been repeating that those who claim to know 
Chirac say that the May 29 defeat was a stunning blow to him, 
and add that Chirac's partisans claim that he's now 
determined to climb back into the saddle, grit his teeth and 
ride out the last 21 months of his presidency with as much 
engagement and dignity as possible.  Whatever the truth of 
Chirac's take on his situation and prospects, it's clear that 
the public, for now, has largely written him off as a vital 
force in French politics.  All polls show the public views 
Chirac as a has-been, unlikely to contribute much to leading 
France into the future.  Chirac's Bastille Day performance 
did little to auger any comeback from that verdict.  End 
Comment. 
STAPLETON