US embassy cable - 05MANILA3290

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 003290 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/PMBS, INR/EAP, DS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PINR, PREL, ASEC, RP 
SUBJECT: PRO-ARROYO SUPPORTERS HOLD LARGE RALLY 
 
REF: A. OPS CENTER - MANILA 07-16-05 TELECON 
 
     B. MANILA 3231 
     C. MANILA 3202 
     D. MANILA 3187 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Andrew McClearn for 
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Media and police estimate that roughly 
100,000 people attended a pro-President Arroyo rally on July 
16 in Manila.  Most rally participants appeared to be 
provincial- or local-level government workers and their 
families bused to the rally.  In other news related to the 
ongoing political turbulence, a bill is being prepared in the 
House that would create a "truth commission" to look into 
allegations of fraud in last year's elections.  In addition, 
Arroyo's Communications Director, Silvestre Afable, has 
resigned amid accusations by Malacanang sources that he was 
ineffective.  Few observers took the large turnout for the 
July 16 rally seriously, seeing it as another sign that the 
GRP and the opposition are engaged in a tit-for-tat game of 
"one-upmanship" as they try to show that they have public 
support.  End Summary. 
 
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Big Pro-Arroyo Rally 
-------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) Media and police estimate that roughly 100,000 
people attended a pro-President Arroyo rally on July 16. 
According to Pol FSN who observed the rally, most 
participants appeared to be provincial- or local-level 
government workers and their families bused to the rally, and 
there was little sign of genuine emotion.  El Shaddai, the 
popular charismatic Catholic religious movement, along with 
other influential allies of the President, staged the rally 
as a means of bolstering Arroyo amid recent scandals and to 
counter recent rallies sponsored by the opposition (ref B). 
The July 16 event was staged near Embassy Manila in Rizal 
Park.  Manila Mayor Lito Atienza, a staunch Arroyo supporter, 
led the ceremonies, which included a series of tributes to 
the local politicians in attendance at the rally and several 
prayers.  There were also some dancing and singing acts. 
Arroyo herself did not attend the gathering which, according 
to Atienza, was primarily meant as a show of support for the 
rule of law and to show a strong popular rejection of any 
extra-constitutional attempts to remove Arroyo from the 
presidency. 
 
3.  (U) In the meantime, protests against the President 
continued in the past several days as leftist groups held 
small "mosquito" rallies in Manila and elsewhere.  A group of 
computer programmer hackers called the "e-patriots" claimed 
over the weekend that it would step up attacks on 
governmental websites as a form of "virtual protest." 
Opposition forces are also gearing up for the next big 
anti-Arroyo event which is scheduled to coincide with 
Arroyo's annual State of the Nation address (SONA) on July 
25. 
 
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A Truth Commission? 
------------------- 
 
4.  (C) In other news related to the ongoing political 
turbulence, a bill is being prepared in the House that would 
create a "truth commission" to look into allegations of fraud 
during the May 2004 elections.  Pro-Arroyo legislators Rep. 
Antonio Cuenco and Rep. Roque Ablan are reportedly set to 
file the bill, which would establish a 21-member commission 
headed by the current president of the Catholic Bishop's 
Conference of the Philippines (CBCP) (refs B, C).  Cuenco 
stated: "We believe that the best way to answer the question 
on who really won the election is to open and count all the 
election returns" and for that work "to be done by the new 
and impartial commission."  Malacanang has come out in 
general support of the proposal. 
 
5.  (C) The proposed bill has engendered a mixed reaction 
from the opposition.  Opposition legal adviser Harriet 
Demetriou told poloff on July 13 that Susan Roces, a key 
opposition leader, had supported the concept of a truth 
commission during recent meetings with Catholic leaders. 
However, opposition Senator Alfredo Lim told Acting Pol/C on 
July 13 that he favored an impartial investigation into the 
election, but was concerned that the "devil will be in the 
details" of exactly how such a commission is formed and what 
sort of mandate it has.  Opposition Senator Aquilino Pimentel 
opposes the proposal.  Pimentel told poloff on July 15 that 
the proposal would be used as a "delaying tactic" by 
administration supporters trying to stave off impeachment or 
the President's resignation. 
 
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Communications Chief Steps Down 
------------------------------- 
6.  (C) Arroyo's Communications Director Silvestre Afable has 
resigned from his Cabinet-level position amid accusations by 
Malacanang sources that he was ineffective.  Afable will 
continue his work as Chairman of the GRP's Peace Negotiating 
Panel with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). 
Malacanang Political Affairs Secretary Gabriel "Gabby" 
Claudio told Acting Pol/C recently that there were many at 
Malacanang who had complained about Afable, asserting that 
his media strategy to defend Arroyo was ineffective.  Waldo 
Flores, the Deputy Executive Secretary at Malacanang, told 
acting Pol/C on July 15 that he was personally upset that the 
President's "communications strategy was failing her" and 
that her poll numbers were down, although he did not mention 
Afable per se.  Media reports suggested that Afable was 
unhappy at his post after repeated clashes with another close 
adviser to Arroyo -- Overseas Development Assistance Chief 
Marita Jimenez -- on the implementation of an overall 
communications plan. 
 
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Comment 
------- 
 
7.  (C) Few observers took the large turnout for the July 16 
rally seriously, seeing it as another sign that the GRP and 
the opposition are engaged in a tit-for-tat game of 
"one-upmanship" as they try to show that they have public 
support.  As noted, July 16 rally participants showed little 
sign of genuine emotion, which was also the case with 
participants in the July 13 rally held by the opposition in 
the Makati business district (ref B).  Overall, most 
observers do not believe that the current political situation 
lends itself to the sort of large "people power" displays 
that changed politics here in 1986 and 2001.  If the 
political and economic situation deteriorates down the line, 
however, then rallies could become more rambunctious and 
threatening to the government. 
 
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You can also access this site through the State Department's 
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http://www.state.sgov.gov/ 
 
MUSSOMELI