US embassy cable - 05CAIRO5447

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 CAIRO 005447 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, EG, OVIP 
SUBJECT: DEPUTY SECRETARY ZOELLICK'S JULY 13, 2005 MEETING 
WITH EGYPTIAN OPPOSITION PARTY FIGURES AND POLITICAL 
ANALYSTS 
 
Classified by:  Charge d'Affaires Michael Corbin for reasons 
1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (U) July 13, 2005; 2:30 p.m.; Cairo, Egypt 
 
2.  (U) Participants: 
 
U.S. 
The Deputy Secretary 
Charge d'Affaires Michael Corbin 
PDAS Elizabeth Cheney 
Deputy Spokesman J. Adam Ereli 
D Executive Assistant Ross Wilson 
D Special Assistant Eugenia Sidereas 
Ian McCary (Embassy Cairo Notetaker) 
 
Egypt 
Osama El-Ghazali Harb, Shura Council Member 
Mahmoud Abaza, Wafd Party 
Nagui El-Ghatrifi, Ghad Party 
Ismail Serageldin, Director, Alexandria Library 
Bahey Eddin Ibrashy, Attorney 
Abdel Moneim Said, Al Ahram Center for Strategic Studies 
Hassan Sawaf, Businessman and Commentator 
Hisham Kassem, Publisher and Ghad Party official 
Hoda Badran, Alliance of Arab Women 
 
3. (C) Summary:  In a 70-minute meeting, the Deputy Secretary 
heard a range of views on the state of political reform, the 
outlook for the elections, and the role the U.S. should play 
in promoting democracy from a group of nine Egyptians drawn 
from opposition parties, civil society organizations, and 
think tanks.  There was praise for Secretary Rice's June 20 
speech at the American University of Cairo, debate over how 
the GOE should deal with the Muslim Brotherhood, disagreement 
also over the value of conditionalizing assistance, and some 
doubts expressed over the long term commitment of the U.S. to 
promote democracy in the region.  Thanking the group for 
sharing their views, Deputy Secretary Zoellick noted that the 
USG recognizes that it does not have all the answers, and 
understands that changes must come from within societies and 
cannot be successfully imposed from abroad.  At the same 
time, he continued, the U.S. believes there are many ways it 
can help promote democracy in the region, and assured his 
guests that they should not doubt U.S. resolve on this 
matter, a point echoed by PDAS Cheney.  End summary. 
 
4. (C) Welcoming his guests to the Embassy residence, Deputy 
Secretary Zoellick offered condolences on the recent murder 
 
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of Ambassador Ihab el-Sheriff, Egypt's envoy to Iraq.  He 
noted that in a meeting the day before, Iraqi Prime Minister 
Jaffari underlined the importance Baghdad assigns to 
strengthening its relationship with Egypt.  The Deputy 
Secretary affirmed USG interest in recent political 
 
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developments inside Egypt, said that President Mubarak's 
decision to open the political process had been an important 
first step, and believed that the coming months will be 
important for the country's future direction over the long 
term.  He solicited their thoughts and advice on what the 
U.S. should look for and expect in the lead up to elections 
this fall. 
 
------------------------------- 
S AUC Speech on the Right Track 
------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) Nagui El-Ghatrifi of the Ghad Party complimented 
Secretary Rice's June 20 speech at the American University of 
 
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Cairo (AUC) and opined that her remarks compared favorably 
with the report on democratic change in Egypt issued earlier 
this spring by former Congressman Weber and former Secretary 
Albright.  The latter report, Ghatrifi opined, put too much 
emphasis on the GOE's preconditions for reform - it must be 
gradual, it cannot be in response to outside pressure, etc. - 
while Secretary Rice's speech emphasized what democracy 
advocates expect of the GOE - to allow political parties to 
campaign without harassment, to invite international 
observers, to conduct transparent elections, etc.  The U.S. 
approach, as reflected in the Secretary's speech at AUC, was 
on target, he believed. 
 
------------------------- 
Institutionalizing Reform 
------------------------- 
 
6. (C) Bahey Eddin Ibrashy, an attorney and board member of 
Egypt's Ibn Khaldoun Center for Development Studies, believed 
that the key to advancing political reform in Egypt was in 
allowing democracy advocates to institutionalize and conduct 
their activities in a free manner.  He opined that the Muslim 
Brotherhood (MB), "the only political force in Egypt that has 
a strong base in society," should be allowed, under certain 
circumstances, to operate as a legal entity.  This would 
enable the MB to become a player in a democratic system and 
make its policies more moderate and responsible. 
7. (C) Hisham Kassem, a publisher and Ghad Party official, 
wondered why Ibrashy stressed the need to lift restrictions 
only on the MB.  Other political parties, which operate as 
legal entities now, are nonetheless not allowed to engage 
freely in political activities.  The GOE's relentless 
harassment of the Ghad Party is prime example, he asserted. 
The reason the MB is strong, Kassem continued, is that the 
GOE has shut down other avenues for political activity.  The 
only platforms remaining have been the regime and the mosque. 
 Extending legitimacy to the MB would be dangerous and 
counterproductive if it did not come in the context of a 
broader opening of the political system, Kassem stressed. 
----------------------------- 
Conditionality: Pros and Cons 
----------------------------- 
 
8. (C) Hassan Sawaf, a businessman and commentator strongly 
critical of the GOE, asserted that U.S. assistance to Egypt, 
in the past three decades, has had an "insidious effect" in 
shoring up a government he characterized as composed of 
"thugs and bandits."  Sawaf opined that Congressman Lantos' 
proposal to cut U.S. assistance to Egypt did not go far 
enough.  If the U.S. is serious about realizing political 
reform, Sawaf believed, it should tell Mubarak that unless 
the GOE makes dramatic improvements, such as lifting the 
Emergency Law, the U.S. will simply cut off its aid.  "Doing 
anything less would be a waste of time," he concluded. 
 
9. (C) Ismail Serageldin, Director of the Alexandria Library, 
took strong exception to Sawaf's approach.  Conditionality on 
assistance always yields a tangible increase in resentment, 
without tangible gains, he asserted.  The challenge of 
changing an entrenched regime is not a unique phenomenon to 
Egypt, Serageldin continued, the PRI ruled Mexico for over 70 
years before seeing successful change.  The only effective 
agent of change is a vibrant civil society, the presence or 
absence of which helps explain the differences between 
northern and southern Italy, he observed.  Egypt's civil 
society remains weak, Serageldin lamented, even in comparison 
with other developing countries like India.  Building a 
vibrant civil society will bring about long term change in 
Egypt, he asserted.  Twenty-eight years at the World Bank had 
taught him that meaningful change in societies comes from 
within. 
 
10. (C) Abdel Moneim Said of the Al-Ahram Center for 
Strategic Studies echoed Serageldin's rejection of 
conditionality for assistance.  He was optimistic that this 
year would see further democratic developments, noting a 
newly issued court decision that may advance the moderate 
Islamist Wasat Party's chances for legal recognition.  He 
also noted that this year a "legitimate" coalition of 
Egyptian civil society organizations has been formed to 
monitor the elections, and he predicted that domestic 
election monitors would encounter significantly less 
resistance than they have in previous elections.  Egypt's top 
priority, Said opined, was to make this fall's elections as 
clean and open as possible.  He also hoped Egypt's leaders 
would encourage more public debate on critical but neglected 
issues, such as the relationship between the state and 
religion, and the residue of socialist governance structures, 
like a quota system for "peasants" and "workers" in 
parliament. 
 
---------------------- 
Egypt's Unique History 
---------------------- 
 
11. (C) Mahmoud Abaza of the Wafd Party welcomed Serageldin's 
comparative approach in analyzing Egypt's conditions, but 
emphasized Egypt's "specific and unique history."  Egypt's 
institutions of democratic governance, like its parliaments 
and court systems, predate any others in the world outside 
Europe and North America, he asserted.  The debate over the 
nature of governance in Egypt is not new, Abaza observed, 
history must not be ignored if progress is to be realized. 
Although Egypt's tradition of political pluralism has 
withered in recent decades, he stated, the people must be 
brought back into the process.  Egyptians must take advantage 
of existing institutions, like its independent press, and 
work to restore the rule of law.  A new "modus operandi" for 
realizing democratic change must be forged, Abaza continued, 
but it must not result in a (destructive) revolution. 
 
12. (C) Regarding the MB, Abaza recalled that his Wafd Party 
has been involved in a long-term dialogue with them.  The MB 
must clarify its positions on key issues, in order to move 
beyond its current stalemate with the GOE, he asserted.  They 
must clarify whether they truly aspire to political party 
status, whether they are willing to abandon positions 
inconsistent with democracy, and how they propose to relate 
to their international organization.  The reason the GOE is 
not reforming itself is simple, Abaza offered: it is a one 
party system, with a fusing of party and state, and a 
president with almost unlimited powers presiding over one of 
the oldest bureaucracies in the world.  The best hope for 
changing this situation, Abaza believed, is to allow a truly 
representative parliament to emerge from a "correct electoral 
process." 
 
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Arab Women, the MB, and Assistance 
---------------------------------- 
 
13. (C) Hoda Badran of the Alliance for Arab Women expressed 
concern that the U.S. sent confusing and inconsistent signals 
about its commitment to promoting democracy in the region. 
Sometimes USG officials appear to be taking a strong line on 
democracy with Arab governments and sometimes they appear 
willing to accept gradualism and half-measures.  Regarding 
the MB, Badran expressed apprehension, as a woman, about the 
impact on social development of a greater political role for 
Islamists.  Badran affirmed that she sided with those who 
opposed conditionality in assistance, which she believed 
complicated issues with no clear benefit.  Assistance is 
provided on the basis of solidarity, not charity, she 
asserted. 
 
---------------------------- 
Questions on U.S. Commitment 
---------------------------- 
 
14. (C) Gehad Ouda, a dean of Helwan University and a 
prolific writer, worried that the issue of democracy may 
prove to have a "short shelf life" in Egypt.  Recent 
modifications to laws governing political life were not 
encouraging, he opined.  Liberals in Egypt must find ways to 
bridge the gap between intellectuals and the masses and 
establish structures that can support the political reform 
process.  Ouda added that the U.S., like any country, must 
balance its ideals, like spreading democracy, against its 
more narrow national interests.  While striking such a 
balance is legitimate, Ouda opined, "we do not have clear 
sign posts and we do not know what the parameters are."  Ouda 
hoped that the U.S. agenda from promoting freedom and 
democracy in the Arab world would be more clearly defined. 
 
15. (C) Ossama El-Ghazaly Harb, a Shura council member, 
believed that Egypt is witnessing an historic moment that 
could yield dramatic changes.  Egyptian advocates of 
democracy, however, were worrying about the level of U.S. 
determination to stand behind this cause.  Referencing Deputy 
Secretary Zoellick's recent visit to Sudan, Harb believed it 
 
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telling that dramatic changes to Sudan's political structure 
were taking place due to a combination of both internal and 
external factors. 
 
---------------- 
An American View 
---------------- 
 
16. (C) Deputy Secretary Zoellick responded that he took note 
of the concern and questions about the USG's long term 
commitment to promoting democratic change in the Arab world. 
He said such questioning is inevitable, but it would not 
deter us.  The U.S. does not have all the answers, and we 
recognize that we must respect what we do not know as well as 
what we do know.  The Deputy Secretary agreed that 
conditionality generally does not work and can sometimes 
backfire.  The U.S. is also sensitive to the fact that 
circumstances vary significantly from country to country and 
that ultimately decisions leading to change must be made 
locally if there is to be ownership of the change. 
 
17. (C) While some continue to believe that the prospect of 
democratic transition in the region will prove to be a "false 
dawn," many others are indicating a real sense of change, the 
Deputy Secretary observed.  Significant developments, such as 
the issuance of the Alexandria Declaration, the Arab Human 
Development Report, and the candid assessments of Egypt's new 
National Human Rights Council were indicators of this change, 
he added.  The U.S. recognizes its limitations, but also 
believes it can take steps to assist regional transition, for 
example by stimulating debate and by offering assistance, 
direct and indirect, to local agents of democratic change. 
The U.S. will pay close attention to Egypt's electoral 
processes this year, he continued, recognizing that this 
fall's legislative elections are of particular significance 
to the country's direction in the coming years.  There is 
reason to hope, he added, that the democratic transition will 
take on a momentum of its own, the Deputy Secretary opined. 
The U.S. will be watching for signs of improvement in the 
conduct of Egypt's elections, the Deputy Secretary continued, 
noting the freedom to campaign and organize without 
harassment as key indicators. 
 
19. (C) PDAS Cheney added her thanks to the group and 
stressed that Egyptians should not doubt the USG's strong 
commitment to promoting democracy and freedom in the region. 
President Bush has been as direct and clear on this subject 
as any U.S. President ever has been, she added.  Referring to 
concerns about the consistency in tone of USG statements, 
PDAS Cheney urged the Egyptians "to watch what we do as much 
as what we say." 
 
20. (U) Deputy Secretary Zoellick has cleared this message. 
 
Visit Embassy Cairo's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/cairo 
 
You can also access this site through the 
State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. 
 
CORBIN