US embassy cable - 02COLOMBO1693

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001693 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS; NSC FOR E. MILLARD; 
LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  09-12-12 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, PINS, CE, LTTE - Peace Process 
SUBJECT:  On the eve of talks with the Tamil Tigers, 
GSL buoyed by pro-peace mood among public 
 
Refs:  (A) Colombo-Sa/INS 09-12-02 fax 
 
-      (B) FBIS Reston Va DTG 120234Z Sep 02 
-      (C) FBIS Reston Va DTG 100241Z Sep 02 
-      (D) Colombo 1629, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by W. Lewis Amselem, Charge d'Affaires. 
Reasons 1.5 (b, d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  The Sri Lankan government's decision 
to lift its ban on the Tamil Tigers last week has 
provoked surprisingly little negative reaction.  The 
pro-peace mood of the public has clearly buoyed the GSL 
ahead of next week's talks with the Tigers.  In fact, 
after a large pro-peace rally, the government felt 
confident enough to move forward with a much discussed 
bill limiting presidential powers this week.  Despite 
the positive atmospherics, the situation remains fluid, 
with the GSL eager to downplay the notion that the talks 
will result in fast progress.  End Summary. 
 
======================================= 
Lifting of Ban sparks little opposition 
======================================= 
 
2.  (C) The Sri Lankan government's decision to lift its 
ban on the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) last 
week has provoked only limited negative reaction. 
Immediately after the ban was lifted, parties with 
Sinhalese extremist leanings such as the Janantha 
Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and the Sihala Urumaya (SU) 
issued harsh critiques of the GSL's decision, asserting 
that it was a reward to terrorists and would lead to the 
creation of a Tamil "Eelam" state.  Even President 
Kumaratunga and members of her People's Alliance (PA) 
party got into the act with statements questioning the 
government's decision. 
 
3.  (C) Despite the hard-edged public attacks, however, 
the JVP, SU, and elements of the PA have not been able 
to mobilize effectively against the government.  Thus 
far, their promises to take the issue to the streets in 
order to rattle the government have gone unfulfilled. 
(Note:  In fact, the largest demonstration this week was 
a pro-GSL, pro-peace rally -- see below.)  For her part, 
after her initial criticism of the GSL, Kumaratunga has 
since backed off, apparently because she sensed the 
public mood was not right. 
 
4.  (C) The lack of a serious negative reaction is 
telling about the public mood in Sri Lanka.  For some 
years now, the LTTE has made the lifting the ban a sine 
qua non for talks.  The widespread assumption was that 
it would be politically difficult, even suicidal, for 
the GSL to take the step due to the loathing many Sri 
Lankans maintained toward the LTTE due to its record of 
serial terrorism.  Observers believe that the fact that 
the de-banning move has not provoked much opposition -- 
at least not yet -- indicates just how popular the GSL's 
peace initiative is among the public.  In making this 
point, Tomas Stangeland, polchief at the Norwegian 
Embassy, told us that his impression was that "the 
public is war-weary and does not want the government to 
fight the LTTE again if there is any way talks can work 
out." 
 
========================= 
Pro-Peace rally Buoys GSL 
========================= 
 
5.  (C) Indicative of the positive public mood, a pro- 
peace rally this week clearly buoyed the GSL ahead of 
the talks with the Tigers.  In an impressive show of its 
political strength, the government sponsored the large- 
scale rally in Colombo on September 9.  For Sri Lanka, 
the crowd -- an estimated 400,000 people -- was immense 
and a decided feather in the GSL's cap, despite the fact 
that most of the crowd was apparently dragooned to 
participate by parties affiliated with the governing 
coalition.  While noting that much work needed to be 
done, Prime Minister Wickremesinghe and his key 
ministers used the occasion to stress that the peace 
process has made significant progress.  The PM, for 
example, was quoted as stating: 
"From insisting on dividing the country, the LTTE is now 
talking about sharing power...Close links have developed 
between the north and the south.  Significant progress 
in the economy can be seen.  Tourists and investors are 
now coming due to the current peaceful atmosphere." 
 
================================ 
Bill Limiting President's Powers 
================================ 
 
6.  (C) Clearly feeling confident about its political 
standing, the government moved forward this week with a 
much discussed bill limiting presidential powers.  The 
key provision of the bill -- which is referred to as the 
"19th amendment" -- would strip the president of the 
right to call new elections one year after the last 
parliamentary election.  From now on, per the proposed 
bill's provisions, the president would only have the 
right to call an election with two-thirds support in 
Parliament.  Another provision in the bill would allow 
for crossover voting without penalty.  The GSL published 
the bill for the first time this week (see Ref A), 
issuing it to the press for public scrutiny.  President 
Kumaratunga immediately came out against the draft, 
claiming (correctly) that the GSL was trying to diminish 
her position.  (Note:  For its part, the GSL wants the 
bill passed so as to prevent the President from calling 
elections should the peace talks necessitate potentially 
unpopular compromises.) 
 
7.  (C) When asked whether the bill would pass 
Parliament, Joseph Pararajasingham, a senior Tamil 
National Alliance (TNA) MP, told us that the bill did 
indeed have the two-thirds support it needed thanks to 
TNA support and support from PA defectors.  He predicted 
that the actual vote on the bill would only take place 
at some point in October or November. 
 
======= 
Comment 
======= 
 
8.  (C) Sri Lanka is feeling like a lucky country -- or 
at least luckier than the one that faced years of ethnic 
fratricide.  The good news keeps coming:  Peace talks 
are slated to start next week; the now-legal LTTE has 
seemingly jettisoned its past penchant for mass 
homicide; the country is getting international attention 
(as witnessed by the Deputy Secretary's recent visit and 
the PM's recent meeting with President Bush); etc. 
 
9.  (C) All that said, the positive public mood is still 
a tentative one, with many people worried whether it all 
has been a chimera:  is the LTTE serious about peace? 
and can the parties in the south cooperate long enough 
to see the process through? remain vivid questions. 
Given the potential fluidity in the situation, the 
government has been wise in underscoring that the talks 
will be a tough slog and that expectations should not 
grow too expansively.  End Comment. 
 
10.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
AMSELEM