US embassy cable - 90BAGHDAD3340

S E C R E T BAGHDAD 03340 
 
E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR 
TAGS: PINS, IZ 
SUBJECT: COUP RUMORS: IRAQI EXILES AND IRAN FABRICATE 
 
REF: (A) STATE 187203, (B) FBIS LD0106133190, 
(C) KUWAIT 3083 
 
1.  (U)  A NUMBER OF RUMORS ARE CIRCULATING IN 
THE REGION ABOUT RECENT ABORTIVE COUP ATTEMPTS. 
THE PERPETRATORS OF THESE RUMORS ARE NOT FRIENDS 
OF THE IRAQI GOVERNMENT.  FOR EXAMPLE: 
 
--AL TAYYAR AL-JADID (IRAQI SHI'A OPPOSITION 
PAMPHLET IN LONDON): ARRESTS IN MAY OF "HUNDREDS" 
OF ARMY OFFICERS AND CIVILIANS, INCLUDING 
SADDAM'S ADVISOR AND RELATIVE, FADIL BARRAK 
(FORMER HEAD OF IRAQI CIVILIAN INTELLIGENCE); 
 
--TEHRAN DOMESTIC SERVICE: 17 PILOTS EXECUTED 
IN EARLY APRIL; 
 
--TURCOMAN (TURKISH PUBLICATION, PRESUMABLY 
BY TURKOMANS):  ARRESTS AND EXECUTIONS, 
INCLUDING OF A GENERAL OFFICER NAMED DHIA 
AL-KAN'AN (THERE IS A TURCOMAN FAMILY OF THAT 
NAME IN KIRKUK). 
 
2.  (C)  DESPITE THE OBVIOUSLY SUSPECT PROVENANCE 
OF THESE ASSERTIONS, WISHFUL THINKING BY 
ANTI-SADDAM GROUPS GIVE SUCH STORIES MORE 
CURRENCY THAN THEY DESERVE.  FOR EXAMPLE, 
EMBASSY KUWAIT REPORTS THAT THE INTELLIGENT 
AND SENSIBLE KUWAITI MINISTER OF OIL HAS TOLD 
TWO RECENT AMERICAN VISITORS THAT SADDAM'S NEW, 
TOUGH PUBLIC POSTURING ON FOREIGN POLICY MAY BE 
A REACTION TO "INTERNAL PRESSURES AND 
INSTABILITY OF HIS REGIME."  IN THIS, SHAYKH ALI, 
WE BELIEVE, IS ENTIRELY WRONG.  THE KUWAITI 
AMBASSADOR HERE SHARES OUR ASSESSMENT THAT SADDAM 
IS DRIVEN BY A NUMBER OF FACTORS, BUT THESE DO 
NOT INCLUDE ANY SPECIAL OR NEW CONCERN ABOUT 
COUP PLOTTING. 
 
3.  (C)  WE ARE NOT SUGGESTING THAT THERE ARE 
NOT OCCASIONAL "DISCIPLINARY ACTIONS" HERE. 
FOR EXAMPLE, THE PRESIDENT'S LONG-TIME KURDISH 
ADC, SABAH MIRZA, UNDOUBTEDLY BLOTTED HIS COPY 
BOOK THIS YEAR.  HE WAS ARRESTED AND MAY BE 
DEAD.  NOR ARE WE SUGGESTING THAT AN ABORTIVE 
COUP WOULD NECESSARILY BE DETECTED BY WESTERN 
EMBASSIES HERE.  WE DO NOT, HOWEVER, HAVE ANY 
EVIDENCE OF A GROUND SWELL OF ACTIVE ANTI-SADDAM 
SENTIMENT OR ACTIVITY. 
 
4.  (C)  FURTHER, SADDAM IS WORKING HARD TO 
DO WHAT HE CAN TO RELIEVE HIS NEED TO DEPEND 
ENTIRELY ON HIS VERY EFFECTIVE SECRET SERVICES. 
CURRENT EXAMPLES ARE HIS HIGHLY PUBLICIZED 
AND PERSONAL WORK ON REVIEW OF THE DRAFT 
CONSTITUTION AND HIS TIRELESS WALKABOUTS 
IN OBSCURE VILLAGES AND MAJOR TOWNS TO INSPECT 
AND IMPROVE CITIZENS' WELFARE. THE PARTY 
HAS NO DIFFICULTY IN TURNING OUT THOUSANDS 
OF CHEERING ARAB (NOT KURDISH) IRAQIS TO 
GREET THEIR PRESIDENT. 
 
5.  (S)  FINALLY, WE INVITE ATTENTION TO 
UNEVALUATED INTELLIGENCE ON THESE ISSUES. 
A GOODS-OR BAD-- EXAMPLE IS IIR 2 762 0096 90 
(CDRUSAOPSGP), WHICH HAS BARRAK  ARRESTED 
AND DEAD IN 1989, A PERIOD WHEN HIS PICTURE 
APPEARED IN THE PRESS WITH SADDAM AND MORE THAN 
ONE AMERICAN HAD LUNCH WITH HIM. 
 
 
GLASPIE