US embassy cable - 05ACCRA1386

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ACCRA 001386 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON, GH, PGOV, PREL, SOCI, economy, corruption 
SUBJECT: GHANAIAN PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY SHOWS RISING 
CONCERNS ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND CORRUPTION 
 
REF: A) ACCRA 1051 B) ACCRA 892 
 
1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  A March survey of popular opinion in 
Ghana, released on July 6 by the Center for Democratic 
Development, revealed mounting concern about the economy and 
corruption, especially perceived corruption by the president 
and his staff.  Nonetheless, the survey revealed that support 
for democratic fundamentals, a Ghanaian national identity, 
and the incumbent Kufuor administration remain strong.  The 
president's approval ratings are high and the ruling New 
Patriotic Party (NPP) would win by 52% if an election were 
held again, according to the survey.  Opposition parties have 
had mixed reactions.  End Summary. 
 
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Unhappy About the Economy 
-------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) On July 6, the highly respected Ghanaian NGO Center 
for Democratic Development (CDD) released the results of its 
third survey of popular opinion in Ghana (the other two were 
done in 1999 and 2002).  The poll, termed an "Afrobarometer" 
and partly funded by USAID, was conducted between March 10 - 
21, 2005 among a nationally representative sample of 1,199 
adults.  On the economic front, the statistics paint a grim 
picture:  63% of respondents view the overall state of the 
economy as "bad," while 65% describe their own standard of 
living as "bad."  The biggest economic concern was 
unemployment, with 22% citing unemployment as the country's 
worst problem (down from 34% in the 2002 survey). 
Respondents perceive a worsening job market and have growing 
concerns about education and health.  Skepticism toward free 
market economics continues: 78% of those surveyed felt that 
all public servants should be allowed to keep their jobs, 66% 
believed the GOG's economic policies have hurt the majority 
of Ghanaians, 59% asserted that economic liberalization has 
widened the gap between rich and poor, and slightly over half 
opined that economic reform had lowered the general standard 
of living. 
 
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Overall Satisfaction with President Kufuor 
------------------------------------------ 
 
3.  (U) The survey asked a number of questions designed to 
gauge popular impressions of the incumbent Kufuor 
administration.  The president received high marks in 
virtually all areas, other than the economy.  Over 70% lauded 
the GOG's performance in combating HIV/AIDS, improving basic 
health services, reducing crime, and addressing educational 
needs.  Between 50-60 percent of respondents felt the GOG had 
done well in delivering water, ensuring that everyone had 
enough to eat, and fighting corruption.  87% of Ghanaians 
expressed trust in President Kufuor and 76% approved of his 
performance in office.    When the survey asked respondents 
to name the political party they would support if elections 
were held tomorrow, the incumbent National Patriotic Party 
(NPP) beat the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC), 
52 to 22%.  (Another 22% said they would not vote and 4% of 
the vote would go to minor parties.) 
 
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Corruption Increasing 
--------------------- 
 
4.  (U) Despite general approval of Kufuor's performance, 
respondents expressed growing concerns about corruption in 
Ghana.  The perception that corruption is commonplace 
increased between 2002 and 2005 for every public institution 
covered in the survey. The biggest increase was perceived 
corruption by the president and his staff (up from 38% of 
respondents in 2002 to 56% in 2005.)  Perceptions that 
corruption is commonplace also increased for members of 
parliament (up from 52 to 59%).  The perception is highest 
for the police (81%), judiciary (72%), and tax officials 
(71%).  Over half of respondents said corruption was 
commonplace among health workers and teachers, while 12-15% 
of respondents indicated they had paid a bribe to the police, 
health care workers, or school officials, or to obtain 
household services such as electricity, water, or telephone 
connections. 
 
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National Identity 
----------------- 
 
5.  (U) Although ethnic awareness remains high, a plurality 
of Ghanaians (42%) feel equal loyalty to their Ghanaian and 
ethnic identities.  Another 23% consider themselves 
exclusively "Ghanaian," with no particularly tribal 
loyalties, while only 18% said they identified themselves 
primarily or exclusively by their tribal ethnicity. 
Ghanaians were divided (47 to 43%) over whether they perceive 
tribal favoritism, with the larger number alleging that the 
GOG had treated their ethnic group fairly.  The Afrobarometer 
also found that 75% of Ghanaians say they take part regularly 
in religious activities. 
 
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Reaction to the Survey 
---------------------- 
6.  (U) The CDD survey received extensive media coverage and 
met a range of responses.  The opposition NDC had varying 
reactions.  According to press reports, the NDC's former 
presidential candidate John Atta Mills lambasted the report, 
calling it "bogus and fraudulent," questioning the relevance 
of the findings that the NPP would trounce the NDC in 
national elections, if the elections were held today.  Other 
NDC officials said they wanted to study the report more 
carefully, while some concurred with the survey's findings on 
corruption and the economy and one NDC youth leader called 
the report a "wake up call." 
 
7.  (U)  Minister of Information (and former NPP General 
Secretary) Dan Botwe said the GOG was examining the survey 
 
SIPDIS 
results despite its contradictions, acknowledging that the 
GOG still had a lot of work to do to "bring (economic) 
development to our people."  He added that perhaps some 
respondents did not fully understand the poll's questions. 
One maverick within the NPP, MP Kennedy Agyapong, also 
cautioned against his party's taking too much comfort from 
the survey, calling on the CDD to "stop deceiving Ghanaians 
as well as the NPP."  He noted that previous polls had 
over-estimated the NPP's winning margins during the elections 
of December 2004. 
 
8.  (U)  The small CPP party said the report needed to be 
reviewed dispassionately, highlighting the findings on 
corruption and the economy.  Journalist Kwesi Pratt, Jr., 
editor of the daily Insight, opined that the CDD's unexpected 
polling results may have resulted from an attempt to please 
its donors.  Another journalist, Alfred Ogbamey of the Gyen 
Nyame Concord, added that the survey had been conducted 
hastily at a time when the GOG was still forming a cabinet. 
He derided the contradictory findings of widespread 
corruption together with high support for President Kufuor as 
"irreconcilable." 
 
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Comment 
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9.  (SBU) The overall conclusions of the report track with 
our sense of politics and economics in Ghana.  It is not 
surprising that the March survey would show party support at 
a level comparable to the results of the national election 
only three months earlier (which the NPP won with 52 percent 
of the vote).  One CDD researcher who worked on the 
Afrobarometer told PolChief that most of the 22% in the CDD 
study who say they would not vote are probably NDC supporters 
(some of whom may not want to reveal their preferences, 
especially to an NGO which the NDC views as NPP-biased). 
This would validate the NDC's 44% showing in the national 
elections.  Many analysts attributed the NPP's narrow margin 
of victory in the election to popular perceptions that the 
masses had not benefited from economic growth.  A majority of 
voters at the time of the election were willing to give 
President Kufuor more time -- and the survey suggests this 
may still be the case.  This may explain the contradiction in 
the survey between growing unhappiness about Kufuor's record 
on the economy and corruption and sustained support for the 
Kufuor presidency.  It also suggests that other issues not 
captured by the CDD survey (such as fears about the NDC 
because of its legacy, ethnic divides, personalities, the 
NPP's record on civil liberties, local issues, etc.) may 
weigh more heavily on voting decisions. 
 
10.  (SBU)  As post has reported previously (refs A and B), 
the success of the second Kufuor administration will depend 
in large measure on how it handles the economy (especially 
its ability to reduce poverty among the masses) and how it 
controls corruption.  The issue of corruption has received 
significant press over the past few months, which no doubt 
impacted the survey perceptions.  Other sources concur with 
CDD's findings that there is a popular perception of rising 
corruption among public institutions.  CDD Executive Director 
Gyimah-Boadi told PolChief he believes that in this case 
perception has some basis in reality and that the African 
Peer Review Report on Ghana (which he has helped draft and is 
expected to be released in August) will also highlight 
concerns about corruption. 
 
11.  (SBU)  Perhaps the most encouraging (though not 
surprising) news in the survey was that two-thirds of those 
polled saw democracy as preferable to any other kind of 
government and that, despite concerns about corruption, there 
is a high level of popular trust for many public 
institutions, including the Electoral Commission, parliament, 
the judiciary, and security services.  Ghanaians are willing 
to give their democracy time to work through its problems. 
However, in the conclusion of the Afrobarometer report, CDD 
notes that "The billion cedi question is whether Ghanaian 
democratic development can be sustained without significant 
improvements in the popular welfare."  At the least, the 
Afrobarometer report is serving to sharpen the public debate 
on governance, especially on the issue of corruption, which 
is healthy for Ghana's democratic development. 
YATES