US embassy cable - 05RIYADH4932

S E C R E T  RIYADH 004932 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/13/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, SA 
SUBJECT: SAUDI ARABIA:  WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN KING FAHD DIES 
 
REF: RIYADH 3517 
 
Classified By: Classified by Ambassador James Oberwetter.  Reason: 1.4 
(b,d). 
 
 
1.(S) Mission has reported previously on King Fahd's 
condition.  We have no new information of significance to 
report at this time other than recent pronouncements that his 
condition has "stabilized."  However, we believe it would be 
prudent to begin to consider what will occur following his 
death.  As a first step, Embassy therefore presents the 
following scenario for a funeral and succession. 
 
---------- 
Succession 
---------- 
 
2. (C) The announcement of the King's death and the 
designation of the new King and Crown Prince will probably be 
simultaneous.  Prince Khalid bin Sultan describes in his 
memoires how the inner Al Saud family council formally pledge 
their allegiance (bayah) to the two new leaders in the 
minutes/hours following the monarch's passing. 
 
3. (C) For the first time, under the 1992 Basic Law, the King 
-- and not the family -- selects the Crown Prince. 
Nevertheless, the King's choice for Crown Prince must receive 
the approval of the family.  In practice, it is doubtful that 
there will be a change in the top leadership.  That is, Crown 
Prince Abdullah will likely ascend the throne and Prince 
Sultan will become Crown Prince. 
 
4. (C) The question mark is whether a new Second Deputy Prime 
Minister will be announced immediately, as was the case after 
King Khalid's death in 1982, when Prince Sultan was 
immediately designated Second Deputy Prime Minister.  If so, 
it would be proof that the succession question had previously 
been resolved by the senior Al Saud.  However, naming the 
Second Deputy Prime Minister is not required. 
 
------- 
Funeral 
------- 
 
5. (C) The actual burial will take place within 24 hours, 
most likely in Riyadh. There is a remote possibility, 
depending on time of day of death, that the late King's 
remains would be transported to Jeddah for burial in Mecca. 
This would still have to meet the 24-hour burial requirement 
and also represent a break with tradition.  The late King 
Khalid's burial was a chaotic affair: throngs of people lined 
the streets around the Grand Mosque and Al-Oud cemetery in 
Riyadh.  However, we should not anticipate many public signs 
of grief.  Conservative Saudis believe in submission to God's 
will in all things, including death. 
 
6. (C) Arab (Muslim) leaders who are able to arrive in Riyadh 
in time, or are fortuitously already present, will attend the 
funeral.  Non-Muslims may not.  However, Muslim funerals, 
especially in conservative Saudi Arabia, dispense with the 
ceremony often seen in the West and elsewhere.  Thereafter, 
foreign non-Muslim delegations will arrive to offer their 
condolences and pay their respects to the new leadership. 
Unlike Western societies, or more Westernized Arab countries, 
there is no set protocol or ritual to govern the handling of 
these foreign delegations.  Saudi Arabia's Bedouin traditions 
will prevail, and there will be a tremendous rush of Saudi 
notables who will compete for access to the new leadership. 
 
7. (C) In 1982, Vice President Bush, Secretary of Defense 
Weinberger, Senator Charles Percy of Illinois, Senator J. 
Bennett Johnston of Louisiana, Representative William 
Broomfield of Michigan, Representative Clement Zablocki of 
Wisconsin, General Lew Allen Jr., Air Force Chief of Staff, 
Deputy Assistant to the President for National Security 
Affairs Robert McFarlane, and Joseph Twinam, Deputy Assistant 
Secretary of State for Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs 
comprised the official U.S. delegation. They arrived within 
48 hours of the announcement of the King's death. 
 
8. (C) Following the funeral, the new King will almost 
certainly address the nation on television.  The government 
will likely call for a brief period of official mourning, 
probably three days.  During that time, the King and many of 
the surviving sons of King Abd al-Aziz will receive pledges 
of loyalty from other royal family members, the armed forces, 
the ulama (religious leaders), tribal leaders, and ordinary 
citizens - a process involving literally thousands of people. 
 Provincial governors will swear loyalty oaths on behalf of 
the King.  When not receiving oaths, the King and new Crown 
Prince will meet with visiting dignitaries.  Government 
offices and most commercial enterprises will close for three 
days. 
 
 
Grappo