US embassy cable - 05MANILA3251

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANILA 003251 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/PMBS, INR/EAP 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/14/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, SOCI, PINR, PREL, RP 
SUBJECT: MUCH DISCUSSION OF POSSIBLE CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE 
AS HOUSE MULLS OVER IMPEACHMENT OPTIONS 
 
REF: A. MANILA 3231 
 
     B. MANILA 3200 
     C. MANILA 3187 
     D. MANILA 3093 
     E. MANILA 3046 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Andrew McClearn for 
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  A group of party leaders from across the 
political spectrum (pro-President Arroyo to opposition) met 
July 12 and agreed that the Philippine Constitution should be 
changed to create a unicameral legislature.  No firm work 
program was agreed to.  Arroyo welcomed further discussions 
in this area.  House leaders continue to discuss the nature 
of an impeachment motion against arroyo and the modalities of 
moving it forward for discussion once sessions recommence on 
July 25.  Archbishop Rosales of Manila told Acting Pol/C July 
14 that he believed that the recent Catholic Bishops' 
statement had helped calm the political waters, but he noted 
that the statement could be re-visited if tensions ramped up. 
 The discussion of constitutional change (a.k.a., "Charter 
Change" or "Cha-Cha") is a long-standing favorite sport of 
Manila's chattering classes, although there seems to be 
growing interest in the notion that movement in this area 
potentially could be a constructive way out of the ongoing 
controversy.  End Summary. 
 
-------------------------------- 
A Call for Constitutional Change 
-------------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) A group of party leaders from across the political 
spectrum (pro-President Arroyo to opposition) met July 12 and 
agreed that the Philippine Constitution should be changed to 
create a unicameral legislature.  The forum was convened by 
House Speaker Joseph de Venecia as the second political party 
summit meeting in the last few months meant to encourage 
reconciliation and cross-party solutions to the country's 
problems.  Leading representatives from all major national 
political parties -- LAKAS, KAMPI, Liberal Party, 
Nacionalista Party, National People's Coalition (NPC), Laban 
Demokratikong Pilipino (LDP), PDP-Laban, and leftist 
"party-list" groups led by Bayan Muna -- agreed that the 
country's political problems were "systemic" and that the 
checks and balances built into the current form of government 
"simply do not work."  In their joint statement, the group 
endorsed the notion of revising the form of government from 
"the presidential to the parliamentary federal system."  The 
group also endorsed a "complete overhaul of the Commission on 
Elections" in order to reestablish credibility and integrity 
in the electoral system.  No firm work program was agreed to. 
 Speaker De Venecia promised that Congress would address the 
issue immediately when it reopens sessions on July 25. 
 
3.  (U) President Arroyo publicly welcomed the joint 
statement.  She said she supported constitutional changes and 
would move the matter forward as a high priority item.  The 
President said she was grateful to De Venecia for bringing 
the parties together.  Arroyo claimed the joint statement 
would help her "listen closely to the pulse of the people" 
and decide how "to consolidate support among both allies and 
opponents of her administration in order to know what is good 
and right for the Filipino people." 
 
4.  (C) The discussion on constitutional change comes amid 
growing interest in the topic.  On July 7, former president 
Fidel Ramos publicly called for constitutional modifications 
by early next year to eliminate the executive presidency 
followed by May 2006 elections to elect a new parliament.  He 
repeated this plan in a meeting with Charge.  De Venecia has 
long supported a shift to a unicameral parliamentary 
legislative form of government, noting to Charge in a July 6 
lunch meeting that President Arroyo had already agreed to 
underscore the need for constitutional change in her annual 
State of the Nation address (SONA) scheduled for July 25 (ref 
D). 
 
------------------------------------ 
House Mulls Over Impeachment Options 
------------------------------------ 
 
5.  (U) House leaders continue to discuss the nature of an 
impeachment motion and the modalities of moving it forward 
for discussion once sessions recommence on July 25.  After 
the July 8 call for Arroyo to resign by most members of the 
Liberal Party -- formerly a key member of Arroyo's 
congressional coalition -- opposition lawmakers said they 
would redouble efforts to strengthen the complaint before it 
is formally submitted to the House Committee on Justice (ref 
E).  Opposition Representative Ronaldo Zamora declared in an 
interview July 12 that he was consulting with Attorney Oliver 
Lozano, who filed the original complaint, and that the 
opposition would "work out all the requirements of a 
substantial impeachment complaint" that would improve the 
motion's chances of gaining support in the lower house. 
Observers have suggested that anywhere from 50 to 75 House 
members now support the move to impeach Arroyo, still shy of 
the 79 members necessary to refer the motion successfully to 
the Senate (where two-thirds support is needed to convict on 
impeachment grounds).  Several pro-opposition representatives 
have told us recently that they believed the opposition now 
was inching closer to the requisite support needed to make a 
referral to the Senate. 
 
6.  (U) In the meantime, a House joint hearing into the taped 
conversations of possible 2004 electoral fraud continued, 
although subpoenas to several key witnesses went unanswered. 
Senate hearings also continued into allegations that some 
members of the President's family were involved in "jueteng" 
(illegal gambling) profiteering.  Opposition members have 
also told us that Catholic Archbishop Oscar Cruz, an 
anti-jueteng crusader, had more witnesses who would appear 
and testify against Arroyo. 
 
------------------------ 
"We are not Politicians" 
------------------------ 
 
7.  (C) In a July 14 meeting with Acting Pol/C, Archbishop 
Gaudencio Rosales of Manila, an influential Catholic prelate, 
said he believed that the Catholic Bishops' statement issued 
on July 10 had helped calm the political waters (ref C). 
While bishops had debated long and hard about the precise 
wording of the statement, he commented that there had never 
been much doubt that they would decline to demand that 
President Arroyo resign from office:  "We are not 
politicians," he said.  Rosales noted that the bishops had 
not absolved Arroyo and that she must be accountable for her 
actions.  On the other hand, the opposition's program of 
rallies was "disruptive to a country that is already poor." 
He pointedly noted that the July 10 statement could be 
re-visited if political tensions ramped up further.  Rosales 
denied reports that he and former president Corazon Aquino 
had worked together in recent weeks in an effort to convince 
Arroyo to leave office.  Rosales said he was close to Aquino, 
but did not support her stance that Arroyo must resign. 
Acting Pol/C reviewed key USG points, stressing that we 
supported the rule of law, and strongly opposed any 
extra-constitutional or extra-legal steps.  Rosales remarked 
that he supported these points, too, and strongly appreciated 
the USG's role during the ongoing controversy, observing that 
Charge's public statements had had a "calming effect" and 
were "very constructive." 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
8.  (C) The discussion of constitutional change (a.k.a., 
"Charter Change" or "Cha-Cha") is a long-standing favorite 
sport of Manila's chattering classes, which has never gone 
anywhere.  There seems to be growing interest in the notion 
that movement in this area potentially could be a 
constructive way out of the ongoing controversy.  Arroyo -- 
who has previously paid lip service to the matter -- appears 
to be latching on to proposals in this area.  (Note:  In a 
July 12 meeting, Arroyo told Charge that she would support 
constitutional change even if it meant shortening her term -- 
see ref A.  End Note.)  In large part, Arroyo is being forced 
to reconsider options in this area due to her political 
vulnerabilities -- at this point, she is in no position to 
ignore key allies Ramos and De Venecia, and their calls for 
such change.  Re impeachment, most observers believe that 
this matter will take time to work through the House and, if 
there is the requisite support there, move on to the Senate. 
As noted, the opposition appears confident that it is gaining 
support for impeaching Arroyo. 
 
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MUSSOMELI